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College Football Playoff odds entering Week 4: Texas begins gauntlet

NCAA Football: Texas-San Antonio at Texas

Sep 19, 2026; Austin, Texas, USA; Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) throws the ball during the first half against the UTSA Roadrunners at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-Imagn Images Credit: IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect (Reuters)

Arch Manning‘s Heisman hopes are about to face their biggest test yet. Texas football‘s upcoming schedule is absolutely brutal, and the NFL prospect needs to show teams his worth starting this weekend.

The 2026 college football season enters Week 4 with a monster slate of games. That includes six AP Top 25-ranked matchups headlined by the top-ranked Longhorns traveling to no. 14 Tennessee.

ESPN dropped its latest odds for this season’s CFP, featuring the 20 schools with the best chances of reaching the 12-team postseason field. Manning and Texas hold an 85 percent chance of qualifying, while Notre Dame and Miami are close behind.

Meanwhile, Lane Kiffin and LSU football are on life support after their massive loss in Oxford against Ole Miss. Here’s the current CFP landscape as the college football season shifts to Week 4.

MORE: Stephen A. Smith thinks Trinidad Chambliss is ready for the big stage

Longhorns can’t afford Week 4 slip up

Saturday shook up the College Football Playoff picture in a BIG way 👀

Biggest drops 📉

Texas A&M: -36%

LSU: -22%

Biggest jump 📈

Ole Miss: +21% pic.twitter.com/Ui8WkFDFYX

— ESPN Insights (@ESPNInsights) September 22, 2026

Manning and Texas already have the country watching closely after their epic win against Ohio State. However, the Longhorns enter a stretch of games littered with top 25 opponents.

Texas plays ranked teams in six of their next seven matchups, including Tennessee, Florida, Ole Miss and Mississippi State. The SEC team’s schedule also features Missouri, LSU and Texas A&M, making it one of the toughest regular season slates a school has ever faced.

MORE: College football’s Week 4 sets record for most ranked games on any day in AP poll history

Current CFP top 12 odds, per ESPN

NCAA Football: Louisiana State at Mississippi

Mississippi Rebels QB Trinidad Chambliss after scoring a touchdown against the Louisiana State Tigers. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images Credit: IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect (Reuters)

Texas Longhorns – 85%

Notre Dame Fighting Irish – 81%

Miami Hurricanes – 78%

Georgia Bulldogs – 75%

Ohio State Buckeyes – 68%

Indiana Hoosiers – 64%

Alabama Crimson Tide – 58%

Texas Tech Red Raiders – 43%

Ole Miss Rebels – 40%

Penn State Nittany Lions – 37%

Utah Utes – 36%

BYU Cougars – 33%

In contention: Tennessee (33%), LSU (28%), Florida (27%), Michigan (24%), Louisville (21%), USC (21%), Oregon (21%), Missisippi State (20%)

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