September 23rd, 2026
Struggling.
When you get paid the big bucks, fans expect big Bucs wins. Not hot trash like last Sunday against the worst team in the league with the worst quarterback.
So everybody and their brother seems to have an opinion on why Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield is struggling. Some blame offensive coordinator Zac Robinson. Some blame the absence of Mike Evans.
Fair or not, with significant Team Glazer loot comes certain expectations. And Mayfield isn’t remotely close the first two weeks of the season to meeting those expectations.
And all of those questions could be put to bed with a good game this Sunday against the Vikings. Just win, baby.
Ben Solak of ESPN wonders aloud if the Bucs are kicking themselves over the $165 million contract they gave Mayfield, which runs through 2029 (but the guaranteed money runs out after the 2028 season). Solak seems to think Mayfield, for whatever reason, isn’t comfortable yet in Robinson’s offense.
Joe and others have been banging on Robinson for his foolish gameplans, specifically not having Mayfield throw many intermediate passes. It seems all the passes are flips to backs behind the line or deep bombs.
Solak noted that in the film he has watched on Mayfield, he thinks Mayfield is jumpy in the pocket.
There have been receivers open on intermediate routes, Solak noted, but for reasons not quite clear, Solak said Mayfield is pumping or jumping around the pocket and not unloading the ball quick enough to take advantage of the open receivers.
By the time Mayfield is cutting loose the ball, the receivers are no longer open.
Mayfield is aggressively climbing the pocket despite the fact that there’s plenty of room to stand and throw, and accordingly, he’s too late to get the ball to Godwin by the time he reaches a throwing platform.
Solak highlights several plays like this using All-22 video.
Then, there are unnerving stats Solak posted. Solak doesn’t like making sweeping declarations using only a two-game sample. So Solak used advanced stats on Mayfield going back to the start of 2025. Remember, the first eight games last year Mayfield was having an MVP-like season.
Even with those excellent games factored in, these numbers from Solak will give you the shivers.
Through two weeks, Mayfield is 29th among 32 quarterbacks in EPA per dropback and 27th in success rate. Of course, two-game samples are useless, so let’s add last season. Since the start of 2025, Mayfield is 24th among 32 quarterbacks in EPA per dropback and 25th in success rate.
No. 25 in success rate is horrible! (Just a reminder, a successful play is 50 percent of the yards needed for a conversion on first down, 70 percent of yards needed for a conversion on second down and the full number of yards needed to move the chains on third and fourth downs.)
Whatever is wrong with Mayfield needs to be fixed in a hurry. If the Bucs lose on Sunday to the Vikings, the 2026 campaign will officially be a Season on the Brink.