Photo by Alex Pantling/Getty Images
Photo by Alex Pantling/Getty Images
Everton have made a solid start to the new season, and now the updated expected Premier League table has emerged.
David Moyes has done a fine job this season, instilling a brilliant competitive spirit in his side after plenty of people thought the Toffees would struggle.
Everton were left short at the end of the transfer window. But nine points taken from the first five games, along with three clean sheets, has fans feeling much more optimistic.
A graphic asking Everton fans to rate their start to the 2026/27 season between A* and D. Image shows David Moyes.
A graphic asking Everton fans to rate their start to the 2026/27 season between A* and D. Image shows David Moyes.
But should Everton currently be sitting seventh?
The under and overperformance Premier League table has now dropped.
Everton should be lower in the Premier League table
Everton sit seventh at the moment, having taken nine points from five games.
But Opta Analyst have now published an alternative Premier League table, which shows teams’ ‘expected positions’. Opta say:” The expected points model simulates the number of goals scored by each side in each match based on the expected goals (xG) value of every shot taken. It then uses those simulated goal totals to determine the outcome of the match, whether that is a win, draw or defeat. Each match is simulated 10,000 times.
The expected points for each team can then be calculated based on the proportion of simulations they win, draw or lose.
Everton should currently be sat in 10th place in the Premier League.
There is also a table for expected points. Everton’s tally is 7.2, which is slightly below their actual tally of nine.
Opta also offer data on the percentage of time in games spent winning, drawing and losing. Everton have spent 30% of games in winning positions, 50% drawing and 20% losing.
That is a fairly balanced spread, but Moyes will no doubt want that winning percentage to be higher and the losing percentage to come down.
What does Everton’s overperformance actually mean?
Of course, this data should only really be taken with a pinch of salt. What matters the most is what actually happens, and Everton have got nine points on the board.
But the suggestion is that the Toffees are slightly fortunate to be where they are in the table based on how their five games have gone.
Quite possibly, Everton ‘ought’ to have lost the game against Manchester United given how close they came to actually doing so before Ainsley Maitland-Niles scored that stunning equaliser, which was a very difficult chance.
But the good news for Everton is that it is not a huge overperformance up to this point, which in theory suggests playing as they are could be somewhat sustainable.