It is well documented that Arsenal have not successfully defended a league title since 1935. In the Premier League era, the league champions have, more often than not, handed the trophy straight over to a rival. It is incredibly difficult to ‘go back-to-back’ in the English top-flight because quite a lot of things need to go your way along with your own quality as a team.
While we are mired in an extended international break, I think it is worth exercising our anxiety and looking back at the principal causes were for previous title defence failures. There are some themes that might feel applicable to this season too into the bargain, so you can thank me for giving you unnecessary anxiety later.
2004-05
Arsenal began this season with a hot hand, winning their first five Premier League games, a home draw with Bolton was then punctuated by three consecutive wins. Eight wins and a draw from the first nine Premier League games was an excellent return and the Gunners wracked up an English record for unbeaten league games.
However, that run halting in incredibly controversial circumstances at Old Trafford represented a significant psychological blow. They only took six points from their following five league games and, all the time, Jose Mourinho’s Chelsea were building a head of steam.
I think there was a vague feeling of a drop off in intensity and overall squad experience too. Injuries to Edu and Gilberto Silva exposed us to the talents of Cesc Fabregas, but experienced squad players like Wiltord, Kanu and Parlour were replaced by younger players like Flamini, Reyes and van Persie. There were also reports of fallouts between players after a 1-1 draw with Rosenborg in the Champions League as well as a really regrettable incident when Spain coach Luis Aragones made racist remarks about Thierry Henry in front of Jose Reyes.
Jens Lehmann lost form and lost his place in goal to Manuel Almunia while it became clear that Patrick Vieira’s disruptive summer dalliance with Real Madrid should have concluded with divorce. The captain’s level clearly dropped, the regrettable Ashley Cole saga began as he illicitly met with Chelsea on the eve of a Champions League game against Bayern Munich. Overall, there was just a small feeling that Arsenal were coming into their post peak while Mourinho’s Chelsea were on an upward trajectory.
2002-03
Similarly to 2004-05, Arsenal came into this season off the back of an international tournament and off the back of a long unbeaten league run which stretched back to December 2001. 23 points from the first nine league games again represented an excellent return and gave the impression of a team that was flying, especially with Robert Pires returning from an ACL injury in October.
Events would prove to be portentous of 2004, a late Wayne Rooney winner for Everton at Goodison Park in October ended a long unbeaten run (30 matches) and that proved to be a huge psychological blow. They lost at home to Blackburn a week later, a game bookmarked by Champions League defeats to Borussia Dortmund and Auxerre, meaning the team lost four matches in a row.
Nevertheless, Arsenal banked an eight point lead (Manchester United had a game in hand) at the top of the table in early March. Wenger subsequently admitted that he felt his team got complacent in the spring just as Manchester United put a long run together. This season was a case of timing, Arsenal went off the boil just as United came to the boil. A Champions League exit at the hands of Valencia in March created a further psychological toll in the run-in.
1998-99
Unlike in 2002-03 and 2004-05, this wasn’t a case of Arsenal peaking too early in the title chase. On this occasion, the opposite was true. This was a post World Cup season and the likes of Marc Overmars, Dennis Bergkamp, Emmanuel Petit, Patrick Vieira, David Seaman and Tony Adams had gone deep in the competition.
However, the painful failure of this season was really down to inertia in the transfer market. The club agreed to sell 35-year-old striker Ian Wright during the summer of 1998 with teenage sensation Nicolas Anelka making his mark during the second half of the 1997-98 season. But Arsenal came up short on attacking reinforcements.
They spent much of the summer courting Patrick Kluivert, who had negotiated a difficult year at AC Milan. At the time, Arsenal had a wage structure that meant they would not pay any player more than £30,000 a week. Kluivert wanted £40,000 a week. Arsenal negotiated for much of the summer but would not budge from their policy. Kluivert went to Barcelona instead.
Arsenal also explored a potential deal for Thierry Henry, they also balked at the salary of Ronald de Boer who remained with Ajax for a further year. In the end, Arsenal’s summer signings were back-up right-back Nelson Vivas and in September they signed Freddie Ljungberg from Halmstads, who would prove to be an excellent acquisition but took time to acclimatise.
Bergkamp emerged from a hamstring injury followed by a World Cup in rusty form and the failure to land a top striker bit the team immediately. In match weeks two, three and four they were held to 0-0 draws before grabbing a last minute long-range equaliser from Stephen Hughes against Leicester in match week five. Scoring goals proved to be a problem.
Arsenal rectified this in January with the signing of Nwankwo Kanu from Inter (they also signed Kaba Diawara who developed a peculiar fetish for hitting the woodwork and he didn’t score a goal before leaving in the summer of 1999). It might still have been enough but ultimately, Arsenal lost the title by a point having conceded 20 goals fewer than champions Manchester United but they scored 21 goals fewer too.
Never has a failed title bid been boiled down so brutally to its constituent parts. Many people pit the excruciating loss of the 1999 FA Cup semi-final to Manchester United in April as the day the title challenge failed but I don’t think this is true. Arsenal immediately followed up that pain at Villa Park by beating Wimbledon 5-1 and Middlesbrough 6-1 (Kanu was key in both victories). Arsenal lost this title on a small margin that was defined by a lack of goals early in the campaign.
It is also true that sometimes doing too much in the market can interrupt a bid to defend a league title. In September 1991, Arsenal signed Ian Wright and, amazingly, didn’t win the league again for seven years, possibly because they began to funnel too much of their threat through a single player?
In the summer of 1971, champions Arsenal signed World Cup winning midfielder Alan Ball, hailed as the best ball playing midfielder in the country. Bertie Mee wanted to add a more decorative presence in a team based largely on graft; but it slightly unbalanced the emphasis of the team (through no fault of Ball’s).
In short, winning the league is really difficult and as well as being really, really good, the table has to tilt your way a little bit. Objectively speaking, Arsenal put together a much more impressive league campaign in 2023-24 when they finished 2nd, than they did last season when they finally won the league. It doesn’t take a big bump for the boat to drift ever so slightly off course and what your rivals do matters too.