A new report from BBC Sport has shed light on the data-driven scouting model Manchester City use to identify transfer targets, with Julian Alvarez and Abdukodir Khusanov cited as case studies in how the system works in practice.
Enzo Fernandez was Manchester City's most expensive signing of the summer, joining from Chelsea for £125M.
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The report details the inner workings of the model that has underpinned City's recruitment and explains how the club's analytical framework operates differently depending on the league a player is performing in.
The piece draws a direct line between the data infrastructure City have built and several of the most profitable transfer decisions the club have made in recent years, with the Alvarez deal in particular holding up as a textbook example of how the system functions when scouts and analysts work in tandem.
Julian Alvarez joined Manchester City from River Plate in January 2022 for £14.5 million, an agreement the club's data model had valued as significantly below market rate at the time.
The Argentina international went on to become one of the most important players of the Guardiola era before his £82 million sale to Atletico Madrid in 2024 - a profit of £67.5 million on the original outlay.
That trajectory, from an undervalued signing identified by scouts to one of the most expensive sales in the club's recent history, is now being cited internally as a validation of how the model is meant to work.
Abdukodir Khusanov, who joined from RC Lens for an initial £33.6 million in January 2025, is the more recent example offered by Mokbel's report.
The 22-year-old Uzbekistan international became the first player from his country to sign for a Premier League club when he completed the move to the Etihad Stadium, and the BBC report suggests the circumstances of his recruitment followed a similar pattern to Alvarez - with the data team required to look beyond initial readings to find the signal in the numbers.
Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola had one final 30-word message for departed striker Julian Alvarez last summer, the Argentine forward has revealed.cityxtra.co.ukManchester City manager Pep Guardiola had one final 30-word message for departed striker Julian Alvarez last summer, the Argentine forward has revealed.
Julian Alvarez reveals Pep Guardiola's final 30-word message to him before leaving Manchester City for Atletico Madrid
How City's Model Identified Alvarez and Khusanov
As reported by BBC Sport's Sami Mokbel, the initial recommendation for Alvarez came from scouts rather than from the data system. Because the Argentine league is not recognised as one of the strongest globally, City's general data settings mean players in that division reach a natural ceiling with their readings compared to those performing in one of Europe's top five leagues.
The club responded by digging deeper into Alvarez's individual statistics and his impact on River Plate's results across a sustained period, rather than relying on a surface-level reading that the model's standard settings would have produced.
The data showed Alvarez was by far the best player in the Argentine top flight. City concluded they had sufficient evidence to project that he would develop into a starter for a top-half club in one of Europe's top five leagues within two and a half years.
The data model placed his value at between £26 million and £40 million at the point of signing. City secured him for £14 million, a figure the club regarded as well below his assessed worth. His projected value under the model after three years was £70 million. The eventual sale price of £81 million exceeded that projection.
The Khusanov case was different in its specifics but similar in its structure. The report states that Khusanov did not initially make City's 50-man longlist, and that on closer inspection the data team found his output on the ball needed to improve.
However, his physical data - his covering runs behind the defensive line in particular - was described as exceptional. City's assessment since his arrival has been that his on-the-ball metrics have improved significantly, suggesting the decision to prioritise his physical output at the point of recruitment was well-founded.
The broader story the report is telling is one about how City balance scout recommendation with analytical evidence in a way that does not allow either element to override the other.
The Alvarez deal worked precisely because the club did not dismiss a scout's recommendation on the basis that the model's default settings produced a capped reading for a player in the Argentine league, and instead commissioned a more granular look at the data.
City resume Premier League duties after the international break, with the October schedule bringing a visit to Liverpool on the 11th and a monumental clash against holders Paris Saint-Germain in the UEFA Champions League three days later.