Case Keenum will get the start tonight against the Philadelphia Eagles. It marks the first time since 2023 that a Chicago Bears backup quarterback saw playing time. It’s been a rare treat having a starter under center for two consecutive seasons. Alas, all good things come to an end. A hamstring injury has knocked Caleb Williams out. It appears he is likely to miss up to a month. That means it falls to Keenum and Tyson Bagent to carry the banner until he gets back. What isn’t known at this point is how successful they must be.
Unsurprisingly, it looks like the NFC North will be a dogfight once again this season. Minnesota leads the way at 3-0 while Detroit is 2-1. Dropping to 1-2 feels like a pretty deep hole for the Bears to climb out of. You never want to say your third game of the season is must-win, but it feels like this one is important. It’s a lot to ask of backup quarterbacks who didn’t get many reps in training camp. That led me to an interesting question.
How good must a backup be to give his team a reasonable chance to make the playoffs?
To answer this, I went back over the past five seasons, looking for every instance where a backup came in for an injured starter and played 4 or more games. I then pinpointed their win-loss record and whether the team reached the postseason. The results were not encouraging.
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The Chicago Bears may need more than treading water.
Season Backup QB NFL Team Injury to Starter Starting Record in Stretch Made Playoffs?
2025 Gardner Minshew Las Vegas Raiders Aidan O’Connell (Thumb) 2–7 No
2024 Cooper Rush Dallas Cowboys Dak Prescott (Hamstring) 4–4 No
2024 Mason Rudolph Tennessee Titans Will Levis (Shoulder) 1–4 No
2024 Spencer Rattler New Orleans Saints Derek Carr (Oblique) 0–4 No
2023 Gardner Minshew Indianapolis Colts Anthony Richardson (Shoulder) 7–6 No
2023 Jake Browning Cincinnati Bengals Joe Burrow (Wrist) 4–3 No
2023 Tommy DeVito New York Giants Daniel Jones (ACL) 3–3 No
2023 Joe Flacco Cleveland Browns Deshaun Watson (Shoulder) 4–1 Yes
2023 Joshua Dobbs Minnesota Vikings Kirk Cousins (Achilles) 2–2 No
2023 Nick Mullens Minnesota Vikings Kirk Cousins (Achilles) 0–4 No
2023 Tyson Bagent Chicago Bears Justin Fields (Thumb) 2–2 No
2023 Easton Stick Los Angeles Chargers Justin Herbert (Finger) 0–4 No
2022 Brock Purdy San Francisco 49ers Jimmy Garoppolo (Foot) 5–0 Yes
2022 Taylor Heinicke Washington Commanders Carson Wentz (Finger) 5–3–1 No
2022 Sam Darnold Carolina Panthers Baker Mayfield (Ankle) 4–2 No
2021 Tyler Huntley Baltimore Ravens Lamar Jackson (Ankle) 1–3 No
2021 Trevor Siemian New Orleans Saints Jameis Winston (ACL) 0–4 No
2021 Taysom Hill New Orleans Saints Jameis Winston (ACL) 4–1 No
2021 Davis Mills Houston Texans Tyrod Taylor (Hamstring) 0–6 No
The #Bears are expected to start Case Keenum at QB against the #Eagles tonight.
Caleb Williams has already been ruled out, and Tyson Bagent practiced only once this week. Bagent was eventually cleared from the concussion protocol, but Keenum is slated to start. pic.twitter.com/CNu4WyHjQu
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) September 28, 2026
Near perfection is needed.
As you can see, there were only two cases where a backup successfully helped his team reach the postseason. First was Brock Purdy in 2022 and then Joe Flacco in 2023. They went a combined 9-1 in their starts. Anybody who lost two or more games failed to get it done. Taysom Hill might’ve joined them if not for a midseason injury that delayed his taking over as the starter for a few weeks. The New Orleans Saints finished 9-8, just missing the playoffs. That shows you how slim the margin of error is.
The Chicago Bears don’t need Keenum and Bagent to be electric on the stat sheet. They need them to find a way to win. That means playing offense efficiently, staying on schedule, scoring at every opportunity, and avoiding turnovers. It won’t be just on them. This must be a complete team effort. The running game must be the driving force of the offense, and the defense can’t afford one of its occasional letdowns where they allow 30+ points. Williams won’t be there to rescue them like last year.
There is some good news.
This is a situation Keenum has been in before. He was thrust into the lineup by an injury to Sam Bradford in 2017 with the Minnesota Vikings. Keenum went 11-3 and got them to the NFC Championship. Granted, he got lots of help from the NFL’s #1 defense, but the fact remains that he did his job. He understands what his responsibility is. Don’t be a hero. Be the responsible driver of a high-performance vehicle. Hall of Fame tight end Shannon Sharpe put it best to Bubby Brister with the Denver Broncos when John Elway got hurt in 1998.
“This is a Ferrari. As long as you don’t strip the gears or burn out the clutch, we’re going to be fine. Keep it in first, let’s go.”
Brister went 4-0. Denver finished 14-2, claimed homefield advantage in the playoffs, and won their second straight Super Bowl. He had 10 TDs and 3 interceptions in those four games. Just solid, efficient play. That is the example Keenum and Bagent must follow. Thankfully, they have head coach Ben Johnson to help them. His play calling prowess should make their lives a little bit easier in what is probably the most crucial stretch of the season.
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