Everton could have earned almost £29m more in Premier League merit payments across the seasons covered by Man City’s financial case, according to a new data model.
The calculation comes from OLBG and has been reported by the Liverpool Echo, with Everton placed among the clubs most heavily affected under the hypothetical exercise.
It doesn’t mean £28.9m is heading to the Hill Dickinson. There has been no decision that Premier League prize money will be retrospectively redistributed and no published commission judgment setting out any such mechanism.
Everton given £28.9m figure in Man City model
OLBG’s calculations put Everton’s figure at £28,944,186, while Liverpool are estimated at £24,423,357. That produces a combined Merseyside figure of £53,367,543.
The model attempts to calculate the additional merit payments clubs might have received if Manchester City’s league positions were removed from the relevant seasons and teams below them consequently moved up. Across the Premier League, OLBG puts the theoretical total at more than £527m.
Those are substantial numbers, but they shouldn’t be confused with compensation already awarded or money the Premier League has decided must be repaid. At this stage, they remain the product of an independent modelling exercise.
Why the £28.9m isn’t an Everton payday yet
The calculations arrive after widespread reports that an independent commission has found City guilty of almost all the charges against them. The commission’s full judgment hasn’t been published, and City responded to Friday’s reports by saying the Premier League process “remains ongoing, with significant elements to be completed”, while maintaining the position it has held since the charges were announced in 2023.
There is therefore no confirmed mechanism under which Everton would simply receive the £28.9m calculated by OLBG. Potential compensation claims are a separate issue, however, and one already relevant to the Blues.
As we reported in our look at the potential significance of Everton’s Burnley appeal, litigation editor Christian Smith believes that case could establish an important precedent for how clubs seek damages from each other following rule breaches. Everton were ordered to compensate Burnley after an independent commission concluded their 2021/22 PSR breach had caused financial loss, with the club appealing that decision.
The OLBG figures shouldn’t therefore be read as a forecast of what Everton will receive from the City case. They provide an estimate of the historical financial difference that changes in Premier League finishing positions could have made.
For Everton, OLBG puts that figure at almost £29m. Whether anything resembling that amount could eventually become recoverable is a separate legal question — and one that won’t be answered by the modelling alone.
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