With Jaxson Dart out for the season, it’s no surprise the New York Giants were looking for help in their quarterback room. Jameis Winston was the only viable QB other than Dart, and after watching him play two games, viable seems like a stretch.
On Monday, the Giants sent a 5th-round pick to the Minnesota Vikings for QB JJ McCarthy. With the move, McCarthy becomes one of the worst draft picks in the history of the NFL.
Now, you can think McCarthy is already a bust, or you can still have faith in him and maybe somehow, despite the odds, he still ends up having a solid NFL career. But any future successes that McCarthy may have will not be in a Vikings uniform, and from Minnesota’s perspective, it’s hard to imagine many selections that aged worse than McCarthy.
I think when you invest time, money, and draft capital into a QB, and it doesn’t work out, those missed picks hit harder than missing on a first-round offensive lineman or a first-round defensive back. With that premise, the selection of a QB is a far bigger miss than a different position.
This century, only three other first-round QBs have started 10 or fewer games for the team that drafted them. McCarthy started 10. Trey Lance started 4 for the San Francisco 49ers. Paxton Lynch started 4 for the Denver Broncos. Johnny Manziel started 8 for the Cleveland Browns.
When you look at those four picks, Trey Lance is the worst of the group because the 49ers spent 3 first-round picks to move up to 3 to select him. Brock Purdy has saved that franchise in so many ways you can’t even count.
Denver moved up a few spots to take Lynch, but it only cost them a 3rd-round pick to do it. The Browns also moved up a few spots for Manziel, but that also only cost them a 3rd.
The Vikings moved up with the Jets to select McCarthy using a fourth- and fifth-round pick to do it.
There’s always an extra crushing blow the higher draft pick you use. So while McCarthy is arguably a more crushing blow than Manziel or Lynch (both picked in the 20s), it’s not as bad as Lance, who went 3rd overall.
But there are other QBs that have to make this list as well. JaMarcus Russell is famously a bust and was a first overall pick. Zack Wilson going 2nd overall is a massive bust for the New York Jets. The other argument that can be made is for Josh Rosen, who was also selected 10th overall and was traded the next season, but the Cardinals were able to get a second-round pick for him.
Since the Cardinals were able to get more back for Rosen, I think it makes the McCarthy pick more egregious.
So if we are to look at the worst picks of this century. And if we start with the premise that investments in QBs in round 1 that miss are more impactful than other position players, that means the top 5 or so worst picks will all be QBs.
I think, since he was a first overall pick, the top spot still belongs to Russell.
I think, when you consider the capital used to move up to select him, Trey Lance becomes the next worst pick this century.
I think, since he went 2nd overall, I think Zack Wilson owns the 3rd spot.
So don’t worry, Vikings fans, JJ McCarthy is not one of the 3 worst NFL draft picks this century.
I do think, however, he comes in fourth. Again, this isn’t about what McCarthy may or may not become as a QB; it’s simply what the Vikings got out of the pick.
I think Manziel is probably 5th (because his crash and burn was so public) and Paxton Lynch probably rounds out the top of the list at 6th, with Rosen coming in 7th.
The Chicago Bears have had some bad draft selections at quarterback in the first round this century, but Mitch Trubisky still led them to a playoff berth, Justin Fields turned in some electric performances before falling apart, and heck, even Rex Grossman helped (did he help?) the Bears get to a Super Bowl.
None of those misses are as bad as the Minnesota Vikings and JJ McCarthy.