NFL picks, predictions for Week 4: Chiefs top Raiders; Cowboys drop reeling Texans to 0-4 image
Three teams remain unbeaten in the AFC heading into Week 5.
The Bills have Josh Allen. The Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes II. The Raiders have …
Kirk Cousins. The veteran quarterback has taken just five sacks and has a 107.2 passer rating, which ranks 10th in the NFL. That gives Fernando Mendoza, the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, even more time to watch and learn.
The Raiders rank in the top 10 in scoring offense and scoring defense, and there is room to get even better. Tight end Brock Bowers had 10 catches for 116 yards and a TD in his return from a knee injury in a 35-27 victory at New Orleans in Week 5. Linebacker Nakobe Dean leads the NFL with 22 solo tackles. Cousins, who turned 38 in August, continues to make it work.
The Raiders can take early control of the AFC West against the Chiefs at Allegiant Stadium in Week 4. Kansas City, of course, is 3-0 with the help of Mahomes and offseason addition Kenneth Walker III, who leads the NFL with 360 rushing yards after three weeks.
Can Las Vegas disrupt that plan?
Five teams – the Dolphins, Chargers, Texans, Titans, Buccaneers – will look to avoid 0-4 starts this week. Is it wise to pick against all five teams?
Sporting News picks the NFL matchups each week. A look at our track record this season:
S/U: 32-16 (9-7 in Week 3)
ATS: 19-28-1 (5-10-1 in Week 3)
Here are our picks for Week 4: (Odds courtesy of FanDuel):
MORE: NFL Week 4 power rankings
NFL picks, predictions for Week 3
Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) at Cleveland Browns
Thursday, 8:15 p.m., Prime Video
The Browns are 2-1 and have won the last four home meetings against the Steelers, which sets the stage for what should be a tight Thursday Night Football matchup. Cleveland defensive tackle Mason Graham (4.0 sacks) and Pittsburgh's T.J. Watt (3.5 sacks) will be in the spotlight. Aaron Rodgers is coming off a three-TD performance, but he also has a 58.4% completion percentage. Deshaun Watson has been better at 68.4%. A lot trends in Cleveland's favor here, but we're still taking the Steelers.
Pick: Steelers 21, Browns 16
Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) at Washington Commanders
Sunday, 9:30 a.m., NFL Network
The Commanders pulled off a surprising Week 3 upset against Seattle, and they have allowed an average of 55 rushing yards per game the last two weeks. Marcus Mariota had no turnovers in Week 3 and proved he can run an efficient offense. The Colts have a minus-5 turnover ratio, and that can show up on the road. Can the Commanders win in London?
Pick: Colts 23, Commanders 21
Buffalo Bills (-6.5) at New England Patriots
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
The Patriots are in trouble. Drake Maye has eight turnovers in three games. The Bills had five turnovers in Week 3 and still won by eight points. What will be the margins against Josh Allen? The last six meetings have been decided by seven points or less, which makes this a tough call. New England is 0-2 ATS as a home underdog with second-year coach Mike Vrabel.
Pick: Bills 27, Patriots 21
MORE:Inside Drake Maye's turnover troubles
New York Jets at Chicago Bears (-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Bears might turn to Case Keenum again in Week 4, depending on the status of backup quarterback Tyson Bagent. The Jets continue their NFC North tour in Chicago. New York has just one turnover in three games, which is a nod to veteran Geno Smith. He has been effective, especially in the short passing game. New York still can't run the ball.
Pick: Bears 21, Jets 17
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
Trevor Lawrence and Joe Burrow meet in a matchup of former No. 1 picks. Tee Higgins averages 17.4 yards per catch opposite Ja'Marr Chase, who has three TD catches. The Bengals average 91.3 rushing yards per game, which could make closing out a game like this difficult. Cincinnati has won the last three meetings by a combined total of 10 points.
Pick: Bengals 31, Jaguars 26
Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants (-1.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
Could the Cardinals pull a cross-country upset here? Arizona has allowed 30-plus points in its last two losses, and that will make it a little easier for Jameis Winston, who has 114.5 passing yards in the last two games. The Giants can lean on Cam Skattebo, who had 20 carries in Week 3. New York needs to have a plan for Cardinals tight end Trey McBride, who has 26 catches on 33 targets.
Pick: Cardinals 21, Giants 19
Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Rams are at a pivotal point in the season here after a 1-2 start. Matthew Stafford had 390 passing yards in the Week 3 loss to Denver. Los Angeles has three sacks in three weeks, a product of missing edge rusher Myles Garrett. The Eagles have an opportunity here if Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley can get traction in the running game.
Pick: Rams 28, Eagles 24
MORE:How a controversial pass interference penalty helped Broncos top Rams
Green Bay Packers (-3.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
Remember when Pete Axthelm used to reference this game as the "Bay of Pigs"? It's looking that way for both teams. Green Bay's offensive line struggles will continue if there is no run support behind Jordan Love. Baker Mayfield has a dislocated thumb and will miss time, meaning the Buccaneers might have to turn to rookie quarterback Jalon Daniels, a Kansas product. Which team can you trust?
Pick: Packers 26, Buccaneers 20
MORE:How Baker Mayfield's injury impacts the Buccaneers
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens (-11.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
The Ravens pulled off a victory in a fantastic finish against the Cowboys in Brazil, and Derrick Henry (301 yards, 6 TDs) and quarterback Lamar Jackson (124 yards, TD) average 5.1 yards per carry through three games. That's an issue for Tennessee, which averages just 12.3 points per game. Rookie Anthony Hill Jr. – who has 34 tackles – has been a bright spot for the Titans. He'll be busy in this one. Teams favored by double digits are 2-1 ATS this season.
Pick: Ravens 30, Titans 17
Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans (-2.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Cowboys might be the most entertaining team in the league. Dallas ranks seventh in scoring offense (29.3 ppg.) and 25th in scoring defense (27.3 ppg.). The Texans haven't generated a rushing attack behind C.J. Stroud, who has taken 10 sacks. If both teams can't run, then it's going to be decided through the air.
Pick: Cowboys 28, Texans 26
Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings (-9.5)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m., Fox
How bad are the Dolphins? They have averaged 12 points per game through three weeks. The defense is improving around linebacker Jacob Rodriguez (28 tackles), but Malik Willis will be under pressure from Dallas Turner, who leads the NFL with 24 pressures in Brian Flores' defense. If this line hits double digits, then we would take Miami. The Dolphins, however, have to cover one of these first.
Pick: Vikings 26, Dolphins 14
MORE:Why Vikings only got mid-round pick for J.J. McCarthy
Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., CBS
Who knew this would be the game of the week? The Raiders beat the Chiefs 14-12 at home last season, but Mahomes wasn't on the field for that one. Las Vegas has forced nine turnovers, too. Can they slow down Kenneth Walker III, who leads the NFL with 360 rushing yards, enough to make this a fantastic finish?
Pick: Chiefs 24, Raiders 23
Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., CBS
The 49ers had a rash of injuries in Week 3 against Arizona, so keep an eye on Mike Evans (oblique) and tackle Trent Williams (shoulder). This is a showcase game for two of the league's leading tacklers in 49ers linebacker Fred Warner and Broncos linebacker Alex Singleton. The Broncos have played a tough early-season schedule and can improve to 3-1. Denver is 2-5-1 ATS as a road underdog since last season, and San Francisco is 6-1 S/U in the same stretch.
Pick: 49ers 27, Broncos 24
Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., CBS
Would the Chargers really drop to 0-4 here? Justin Herbert – who has a 59.1% completion percentage with three TDs and four interceptions – is on the spot. The Chargers are just 2-5 S/U as a road underdog under Jim Harbaugh, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba will make the game-changing plays with Sam Darnold, who will be better in Week 4.
Pick: Seahawks 24, Chargers 20
Detroit Lions (-3) at Carolina Panthers
Sunday, 8:20 p.m., NBC
Bryce Young leads the NFL with 313 passing yards per game, but the lack of run support showed against Cleveland in Week 3. Carolina will have more success against a struggling Detroit defense, but how will they slow down Jahmyr Gibbs, who ranks second in the NFL with 11 carries of 10 yards or more, according to PFF.com. This feels like another Sunday Night Football scoring fest.
Pick: Lions 34, Panthers 28
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-2.5)
Monday, 8:15 p.m., ESPN
This NFC South rivalry reheats with Tyler Shough, who ranks second in the NFL with 917 passing yards. Bijan Robinson ranks second in the NFL with 349 rushing yards. That could lead to an up-and-down game, and Michael Penix Jr. was impressive in his return in Week 3. Atlanta swept this series last year.
Pick: Saints 29, Falcons 22