NFL picks, predictions against the spread Week 4: Chiefs chop Raiders, Bills burn Patriots image
Week 3 of the NFL brought some major surprises, showing just how little separates teams from winning or losing in 2026. When considering game picks and predictions against the spread, there's a fine line between just covering and taking a bad beat.
Even with some teams losing starting quarterbacks, there are plenty of competitive offenses that can make games interesting into the fourth quarter. Before getting into the bye weeks, there's one more early full slate of contests in Week 4.
What games will be close and what games will be decided by a sizeable margin? Here's Sporting News' latest fearless forecast of professional pigskin prognostications:
All spreads and odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Patrick Mahomes
NFL picks against the spread for Week 4
Game of Midweek: Steelers (-2.5, 38.5 o/u) at Browns
Thursday 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video
Aaron Rodgers and Deshaun Watson are coming off strong home performances to help their teams win close games. The Steelers' defense struggled while the Browns' defense has been hot. The goal for Pittsburgh is making Cleveland one-dimensional so it can tee off on the pass rush. The Browns have just a few more issues overall around Watson.
Pick: Steelers win 20-17 and cover the spread.
AFC Game of the Week: Chiefs (-4.5, 47.5 o/u) at Raiders
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
The Chiefs are locked in offensively like they haven't been in a while, with Kenneth Walker III sparking everything and Travis Kelce turning back the clock. Patrick Mahomes has become a confident distributor again. The same is true for Kirk Cousins, also a hot passer early in the season. But the Chiefs have a little more reliable and cohesive defense to get the job done.
Pick: Chiefs win 27-20 and cover the spread.
NFC Game of the Week: Rams (-2.5, 46.5 o/u) at Eagles
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Rams are finding plenty of offense with Kyren Williams, Davante Adams and the tight ends, but they still miss that consistent dominant No. 1, Puka Nacua. No Myles Garrett hurts against the Eagles' offensive line. Jalen Hurts will create more downfield than Matthew Stafford, and having the obvious athletic advantage also helps.
MORE:How a controversial pass interference penalty helped Broncos top Rams
Pick: Eagles win 27-24.
Lock of the Week: Seahawks (-6.5, 43.5 o/u) over Chargers
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
Seattle got shocked in Washington with the defense having big breakdowns and the offense making too many mistakes. Los Angeles is a lot more lost offensively with Justin Herbert under Mike McDaniel and has become a nightmarish turnover machine under Jim Harbaugh. The Seahawks are bound to refocus well and not get caught off guard again at home.
Pick: Seahawks win 24-14 and cover the spread.
Dak Prescott
Upset of the Week: Cowboys (+2.5, 47.5 o/u) over Texans
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Cowboys got some of the offense going in Brazil although coming up short against the Ravens. The Texans' offense cannot run well and doesn't have much passing pop minus Nico Collins and Jayden Higgins. Dak Prescott is better situated in the Lone Star State than C.J. Stroud with CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, Jake Ferguson and more locked into him.
Pick: Cowboys win 30-20.
MORE:Full NFL power rankings for Week 4
Colts (-3.5, 47.5 o/u) vs. Commanders
Sunday 9:30 a.m. ET, NFL Network (from London, England)
The Colts should make this game about getting the ball in the hands of running back Jonathan Taylor and tight end Tyler Warren as much as possible to settle Daniel Jones and attack the Commanders' key weaknesses. The Commanders will stay revved up with Marcus Mariota getting help all over the field to make for a fun morning export.
Pick: Colts win 27-24 but fail to cover the spread.
Patriots at Bills (-6.5, 48.5 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Patriots will try to stay in the game with a heavy dose of Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson in the running game to take pressure off slumping Drake Maye and also go after the Bills' defensive Achilles' heel. Unfortunately, the Bills' defense is more going after takeaways and will get to Maye a few times while Josh Allen rolls along.
Pick: Bills win 24-20 but fail to cover the spread.
MORE:Inside Drake Maye's turnover troubles
Jets at Bears (-3, 44.5 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Jets are staying competitive with Geno Smith leading the offense but the injuries are piling up at the skill positions before this game. That gives the Bears a break without Caleb Williams on a short week at home. They have enough around backup Case Keenum to outscore New York.
Pick: Bears win 24-20 and cover the spread.
Jaguars at Bengals (-2.5, 51.5 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence make for a great passing duel between consecutive No. 1 overall picks. Burrow is red-hot and Lawrence is feeling it, too. Both are getting help from the running backs and variety of wide receivers. Jacksonville and Cincinnati also are getting good pop from the defensive fronts. The Bengals escape this back-and-forth thriller at home.
Pick: Bengals win 31-27 and cover the spread.
Cardinals at Giants (-1.5, 43.5 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Cardinals' offense has a lot of positives under Mike LaFleur. Jacoby Brissett is back on the same page with several passing weapons, and the backfield role of Jeremiyah Love is getting more effective. Jameis Winston's turnovers make the difference in a mild road upset.
Pick: Cardinals win 23-20.
Packers (-3.5, 39.5 o/u) at Buccaneers
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Packers need this game badly after flailing against the Falcons. They get the wounded Bucs, a big break with Baker Mayfield on the shelf. Green Bay will deal with an anemic running back supported by an undrafted rookie QB, Jalon Daniels. Jordan Love will continue to stretch the field well with a little less pressure on him this week.
MORE:How Baker Mayfield's injury impacts the Buccaneers
Pick: Packers win 21-13 and cover the spread.
Titans at Ravens (-11.5, 43.5 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Ravens are having some trouble finishing games. They survived the Cowboys after succumbing to the Saints. The Titans' defense has playing more inspired under Robert Saleh, but behind Jeffery Simmons there's not enough to slow down Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry more than a handful of times.
Pick: Ravens win 31-13 and cover the spread.
Dolphins at Vikings (-9.5, 39.5 o/u)
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox
The Dolphins have lost De'Von Achane, putting more pressure on Malik Willis to lead the offense with his arm and legs. His running will keep Miami in the game for a while but the Vikings can counter the same way with Kyler Murray. Minnesota just a needs a few big plays to make the difference.
Pick: Vikings win 23-14 but fail to cover the spread.
MORE:Why Vikings only got mid-round pick for J.J. McCarthy
Broncos at 49ers (-2.5, 46.5 o/u)
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
The Broncos come down to earth early in the games and on the road. The 49ers have started fast and furious at home during their 3-0 start. Denver's issues in stopping the run and covering the tight end is bad news against George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey. Brock Purdy gets a lot more comfortable than Bo Nix.
Pick: 49ers win 31-20 and cover the spread.
Lions (-3.5, 50.5 o/u) at Panthers
Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC and Peacock
The Lions will use plenty of Jahmyr Gibbs to set the tone running on the Panthers' weakn run defense. They also will try to stretch the field better in the passing game with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams. Bryce Young will be game to make it close late with Tetairoa McMillan and a variety of weapons. Detroit will just need to get used to trying to win shootouts every week.
Pick: Lions win 27-24 but fail to cover the spread.
Falcons at Saints (-2.5, 48.5 o/u)
Monday 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Falcons found their groove with Bijan Robinson and Drake London, thanks to Michael Penix Jr. returning in Kevin Stefanski's offense. But the Saints have their own explosive attack with Tyler Shough getting it done with Chris Olave along with the rest of the wide receivers and tight ends. This should be a fun chapter between the domed archrivals in the NFC South.
Pick: Saints win 38-34 and cover the spreead.
Stats of the Week
Week 3 straight up record: 8-8
Week 3 against the spread record: 6-10
Season-to-date straight up record: 30-18
Season-to-date against the spread record: 22-26