The football world has been rocked by the independent commission finding Manchester City guilty of serious breaches of Premier League financial regulations covering a nine-season period.
The verdict found that City had used what the commission described as “sham” commercial arrangements, submitted misstated accounts and were significantly in breach of both Premier League and UEFA spending limits.
The commission also found that City breached their obligation to cooperate with the Premier League investigation, with three of four alleged non-cooperation charges upheld.
Manchester City have now appealed the verdict, meaning the outcome remains some way off. The appeal is being heard by a new independent three-person commission.
And that is where things become particularly interesting for the Hammers.
#### Could West Ham gain a Premier League place?
If City’s appeal ultimately fails and they receive a sufficiently severe sporting sanction, relegation is one possible consequence.
A points deduction could theoretically push City into the Championship.
Everton received 4 points for one offence, so in theory 114 offences would be a 456-point deduction at that tariff, which would mean relegation to the Championship.
However, **expulsion is a different matter**.
If City were expelled from the Premier League, they would not simply be regarded as having finished 20th. They would leave the Premier League altogether, and their eventual place in the English football pyramid would have to be determined.
The Premier League would then potentially have only 19 clubs, creating an unusual problem over promotion and relegation.
Sky Sports has reported that, in such circumstances, the most obvious consequence would be only two clubs being relegated from the Premier League that season rather than a fourth promotion spot from the Championship if the punishment is enforced this season.
If the punishment is not enforced until next season, it means 18th place, which relegated West Ham last season, could be safe.
Everything would depend upon the sanction imposed, the timing of that sanction and the Premier League’s decision on how the competition is restructured.
#### Could West Ham receive compensation?
This could potentially be even more interesting.
Premier League clubs are already seeking legal advice over whether they could pursue compensation from Manchester City following the verdict.
The argument would be that clubs may have suffered financially because City’s alleged financial breaches allowed them to operate with an advantage they should not have had.
That could potentially encompass clubs which:
* missed out on European qualification;
* finished behind City when they might otherwise have finished higher;
* missed out on prize money;
* lost Champions League or Europa League revenue;
* or suffered other measurable financial losses.
BBC Sport has reported that Premier League clubs are considering compensation claims, with possible repercussions extending beyond sporting sanctions.
A precedent was set when Sheffield United sued West Ham over Carlos Tevez, with an out-of-court settlement of £20m being agreed.
That does **not** mean West Ham are automatically entitled to a cheque.
The difficult question would be proving exactly what financial loss West Ham suffered and establishing a sufficiently clear connection between that loss and City’s rule breaches.
But if the legal arguments develop, West Ham could potentially have a legitimate interest in the process.
Manchester City could potentially owe more than £527million to Premier League rivals if the club’s alleged financial breaches ultimately lead to compensation claims.
West Ham share of that could be £28.1m, which would be the third-largest based on missed merit payments after Everton and Manchester United.
#### What about European football?
Technically, West Ham did not miss out on Europe entirely, but they missed out on direct qualification for the Europa League group stage.
The primary season in focus for the Hammers is 2015/16:
The Reality: Slaven Bilić’s West Ham finished 7th with 62 points. They were only 1 point behind Southampton (6th) and 4 points behind Manchester City (4th).
The European Impact: Because City took a Champions League spot, Southampton moved into the Europa League group stage directly. West Ham, finishing 7th, were forced into the gruelling Europa League third qualifying rounds.
The Consequence: Plagued by the incredibly early start to the season, West Ham were famously knocked out in the playoff round by Romanian side Astra Giurgiu. This cost the club millions of pounds in guaranteed UEFA participation money, ticket sales, and TV revenue.
### What happens next?
For West Ham supporters, there are effectively four things to watch.
**1\. City’s appeal**
This is the immediate issue. City have formally appealed and continue to maintain that they are innocent. Reports suggest the appeal could take three months.
**2\. The eventual sporting sanction**
The independent commission has yet to determine the punishment. Potential sanctions include fines, points deductions and other sporting penalties.
**3\. Whether historical results are affected**
This could determine whether clubs such as West Ham have any realistic claim to additional sporting or financial benefits.
**4\. Compensation claims**
This could ultimately become the biggest financial story for clubs that believe they were disadvantaged by City’s conduct.
#### The bottom line for West Ham
For now, **nothing changes.**
Manchester City remain a Premier League club, and their current results stand.
But the verdict has opened the door to a potentially extraordinary chain of events.
If the guilty verdict survives the appeal and City receive a major sporting punishment, West Ham could potentially benefit through **league-position changes, European qualification implications and potentially compensation**.
At the same time, City’s problems could hurt the Hammers in the transfer market by encouraging City to retain players such as Mukasa.
So while West Ham fans may understandably be looking at Manchester City and thinking _“finally, justice”_ – the reality is considerably more complicated.
**For the Hammers, the Manchester City case could eventually be worth millions of pounds, a Premier League survival advantage or even a European opportunity.**
But right now, it is still a case of **watch this space.**