NFL: New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Oct 4, 2026; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) throws a pass during the third quarter against the New England Patriots at New Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-Imagn Images Credit: IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect (Reuters)
Josh Allen is once again off to a hot start and the Buffalo Bills are atop the AFC East. The dual-threat quarterback is undoubtably one of the best players in the entire NFL and is able to make a huge impact on the game with how frequently he handles the football.
His track record speaks for itself—though the lack of a Super Bowl appearance is going to stick out like a sore thumb until he exorcizes that demon. So there’s really no surprise that oddsmakers have installed Buffalo as the favorite or, at worst, a small underdog during Allen’s current run of excellence nearly every week.
MORE: Sean McVay was so fired up jumping for joy following Rams’ big comeback win
This Monday is a rare exception with the Bills traveling to Los Angeles to take on the Rams. Allen and his side are three-point underdogs. Per ESPN’s Ben Fawkes, this is the largest spread Allen has had to overcome since he squared off against Tom Brady’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers back in 2021.
The Buffalo Bills are currently a 3-point underdog at the Los Angeles Rams in Week 5.
➡️That would be the biggest underdog Josh Allen has been in a game in nearly FIVE years (+3.5 at Tom Brady's TB Bucs on Dec. 12, 2021)
— Ben Fawkes (@BFawkes22) October 6, 2026
Josh Allen as an underdog
What does this mean? Well, perhaps nothing. Fans and pundits love to talk about the myriad ways professional athletes find motivation and seeing heavy action on the other side of the line is a classic impetus. But Allen and Buffalo already have plenty of reasons to lock in and play their best game.
A Week 4 disaster against the New England Patriots saw them lose on an Efton Chism catch. What appeared to be an enormous lead in the division is now just a single game—and the Bills do not have the tiebreaker against the nearest chaser.
NFL: Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles
Oct 4, 2026; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) in action against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images Credit: IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect (Reuters)
Now, having said all that, it’s still a bit of a surprise to me that Las Vegas likes the Rams this much. Sean McVay’s team needed a late comeback to beat the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday just to get to 2-2. What looked like a superteam on paper has been very human to this point. Then there’s the unique circumstances of SoFi Stadium that allows the road team’s fans to be just as loud as the home supporters. So given the opportunity to get Josh Allen and free points, perhaps that’s something to strongly consider doing.
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