Jesse Minter and the Ravens defense have taken a lot of heat through four weeks. Minter was supposed to be the savior of this defense, the guy who would end two years of struggles under Zach Orr. Most people expected a dominant unit right away. That hasn’t happened yet, but they haven’t been nearly as bad as people seem to think.
Let’s start with where they rank. In 2024 and 2025, the Ravens were 18th and 30th in penalty-adjusted defensive EPA through four weeks. This year they’re ninth. Those 2024 and 2025 units finished eighth and 22nd, so this defense has historically gotten better as the season goes on, and this year it’s starting from a much better spot.
I’m using a penalty-adjusted metric for a reason. Penalties have been a real problem for this team, and they’ve been going almost entirely one way. With penalties included, the Ravens rank 15th in defensive EPA per play. Sunday’s game against the Titans got out of hand: Baltimore was flagged 13 times for 131 yards, compared with 5 for 32 for Tennessee. And that one-sided pattern goes beyond one game.
Opposing offenses have been flagged against the Ravens just nine times, tied for the fewest in the league, and Baltimore ranks dead last in EPA gained from those penalties. Short version: the defense is getting no help from the refs. They’ve drawn exactly one offensive holding call through four games, against Dallas, which is again tied for last. The defense hasn’t been clean either, but it’s getting nothing back in return. The offense is in the same spot: it has drawn only four defensive penalties, 31st in the league, while consistently shooting itself in the foot with procedural flags.
If opposing offenses were being flagged at even a league-average rate, this defense would jump to 11th in EPA per play. Remove all penalties and it’s 9th. All of this is to say the defense hasn’t been bad; it just needs some penalty luck to swing its way. One holding call or DPI can completely change a drive and turn a three-and-out into a touchdown drive.
Fans, players, and coaches have harping on the penalties for weeks because they’re doing so much damage. As a team, the Ravens have lost 329 yards and 40 expected points to penalties, both second-worst in the NFL. Remove the penalties and they’re also 2nd in offensive EPA per play. Without the flags, this team has a top-two offense and a top-10 defense.
I said after the Saints game that the Ravens were getting flagged at an unprecedented rate, and that’s turned into a broader NFL story. Teams are getting flagged at the highest rate in a decade, refs are getting suspended, and fans are fed up with how much officials are shaping games. This general pushback against the penalties could lead to a regression to the mean.
Add it all up: the penalties, a new head coach, injured players still working their way back and finding their chemistry, and a defense that has historically improved as the year goes on. I have no doubt this will be a top unit over the back half of the season. The defensive line has been a bit of a carousel, but Nnamdi Madubuike and Mike Green have both looked very good – Green in particular looks like he is ready for a sophomore breakout. Trey Hendrickson missed last week after a procedure on his finger and should be back this week or next.
The one area that needs immediate improvement is the run defense. The Ravens rank 21st in EPA per rush allowed with penalties removed, and they no longer have time to sort it out. With Lamar Jackson now injured, the defense needs to play up to its potential right away, starting with Bijan Robinson and a red-hot Falcons team.
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