Better than 0-4.
Joe may be suspicious of some advanced stats (keyword: some), but there is one guy who traffics in numbers, when he speaks, Joe listens closely.
Aaron Schatz, the Father of [DVOA](https://ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-explainer), a stat he hatched that stresses efficiency. The former owner and operator of Football Outsiders (RIP), Schatz’s DVOA is widely recognized by both statheads and NFL teams as a pretty good measurement and indicator of solid play.
Well, Schatz ran his numbers and found that the Bucs really are an average team, despite the losses piling up. The Bucs defense has played well, Schatz noted. The offense? Not so much.
> What if I told you that the Texans and Buccaneers have actually been close to NFL average when you break down the play-by-play and look at their efficiency? Houston ranks 17th in the league and Tampa Bay ranks 18th. There are 150 teams since 1977 that have started the season either 0-4 or 0-3-1, and out of all of them, Houston and Tampa Bay rank third and fourth in DVOA. …
>
> Meanwhile, in Tampa Bay, the young defense that some folks believed could be pretty good has, in fact, been pretty good. It ranks ninth in DVOA. But the offense looks rough, ranking 24th. Quarterback Baker Mayfield played poorly for three weeks and is now sidelined by a dislocated thumb.
Schatz is right in that the defense has played well. If the offense had its act together, the Bucs might just still be in the playoff race.
Joe has seen a few videos from some stats people on TikTok (Joe’s going to study them a little better in a few days) that swear if you break the Bucs down using advanced stats, the offensive line hasn’t played that badly, they’re just getting hung out to dry by Baker Mayfield.
That’s also a premise that Ben Solak of BSPN previously has sort of put out there as well.