Quarterback Drake Maye of the New England Patriots prepares to pass during the first half of the game against the Jacksonville Jaguars at EverBank Stadium on Sunday in Jacksonville, Fla. (Photo by Don Juan Moore/Getty Images)
Quarterback Drake Maye of the New England Patriots prepares to pass during the first half of the game against the Jacksonville Jaguars at EverBank Stadium on Sunday in Jacksonville, Fla. (Photo by Don Juan Moore/Getty Images)
More than any one moment or game, the start of this Patriots season might best be defined by a question.
Who could’ve seen that coming?
Remember: Drake Maye threw all three of his interceptions at Seattle in the fourth quarter to lose a game in hand. Then, in Week 2, the Patriots won for the first time ever in a game Maye threw zero more touchdowns than interceptions. The next week, they had their brakes blown off in a 29-point loss at Jacksonville, the most lopsided of the Mike Vrabel era. And finally, at their lowest point of this young season, the Pats pulled off a major upset in Buffalo for the second straight year, with Maye and Vrabel both at their respective bests.
What comes next is anyone’s guess. But to understand how the Patriots have taken such a winding road to 2-2, it’s time for a deep dive into the numbers that explain Maye’s rocky start, a defense that stepped up in his absence and a running game the Pats have yet to rev up at a time they could use it.
9 Drake Maye turnovers
Seven interceptions. Two fumbles lost. One league lead in turnovers.
Maye’s butterfingers have overshadowed, if not cancelled out, much of his positive play. Were it not for his fourth-quarter picks at Seattle, the Patriots would be 3-1. If he had simply thrown the ball away at Jacksonville, instead of directly at a Jaguars cornerback on both picks, all of the nationwide fretting over his confidence and ability could have been skipped. Alas, that is the pressure and power of the quarterback position.
It should be noted Maye has also fumbled three other times, bouncing balls the Patriots recovered. The best thing he can do to course-correct is protect the ball and not press, the main cause of all his turnovers. Now, why might he be pressing …?
48.6% pressure rate allowed
Maye has been under constant fire with a pressure rate reminiscent of his rookie season, when the Patriots patched their offensive line together with cutdown day casualties and other misfits from around the league. But nowadays, there’s no such talent shortage, and no excuses.
Alijah Vera-Tucker, their high-priced free-agent addition at left guard, has bookended his season start with two poor games in pass protection. Will Campbell’s streak as the Patriots’ best pass-protector in every game ended last weekend at Buffalo with five pressures allowed at left tackle. Right guard is now a revolving door, with three different starters in as many weeks due to injury. Right tackle Morgan Moses is banged-up, but hanging in there.
Maye has invited some pressure by holding onto the ball too long on some plays and bailing prematurely from the pocket on others. Common young quarterback mistakes. But this percentage must come down if the Patriots are to rise again in the AFC.
1 missed tackle forced
In case the physical pressure of swarming pass rushers and mental stress of facing elite defenses in tight games wasn’t enough, Maye’s also had a complete lack of playmaking to contend with. How so?
According to Pro Football Focus, Maye has forced more missed tackles (4) than all his wide receivers and tight ends combined (1).
That’s right. Over 967 combined snaps, the Patriots wideouts and tight ends have made a single would-be tackler whiff. The player responsible for that miss? Hunter Henry, whose four missed tackles forced last year was a new personal best for his Patriots career.
The Patriots need more juice among their skill-position players, including TreVeyon Henderson who forced three missed tackles at Buffalo to tie his quarterback for the season. Meanwhile, Rhamondre Stevenson leads the team with 10.
0.98 yards per carry before contact
Losing your best run-blocker, starting right guard Mike Onwenu, for the season doesn’t help. But if the Patriots want to revive their run game, it must start up front.
So far this season, Stevenson, Henderson and all their other ball-carriers are being afforded less than a yard on average before they’re contacted by a defender. The Pats rank 25th in the league in yards gained before contact, per SumerSports. So while Henderson must break more tackles than he has, there’s something to be said for too many plays being dead on arrival because of subpar blocking.
10 personnel groupings
This, according to SumerSports, was a single-game record for the Patriots dating back at least four years.
The Pats deployed 10 different offensive personnel groupings at Buffalo, surpassing their previous high of nine set in Week 18 last season. Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels opened the playbook in a way he had yet to all year, and successfully unsettled a Bills defense by recording other season highs in pre-snap motion, play-action rate and different run concepts. One more single-game high: 29 offensive points, which doubled their total … for the season.
Patriots coach Mike Vrabel, left, and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, right, chat during training camp at Gillette Stadium Saturday, Aug. 1, 2026, in Foxboro. (Photo by Paul Connors/Media News Group/Boston Herald)
Patriots coach Mike Vrabel, left, and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, right, chat during training camp at Gillette Stadium Saturday, Aug. 1, 2026, in Foxboro. (Photo by Paul Connors/Media News Group/Boston Herald)
From this view, the Patriots ability to mix and match personnel, including packages with six offensive linemen, will be central to any success until they’re healthy again and can reliably count on winning more 1-on-1 matchups. As for McDaniels, he offered a lengthy explanation Thursday when asked if introducing so much motion and various personnel groups could be foundational to their plans moving forward, given how well it all worked last weekend.
“I’ve always thought you start the season and try to be as sound fundamentally as you can. And you play good football early in the year by knowing how to handle your rules and playing together and minimizing some errors,”he said. “And then, as you build through the season, you certainly have things that you haven’t shown yet, that you didn’t put in (the game plan) yet, that you can use eventually, that you want to build off of those those foundational things that you have to win with early in the season. Because if you’re not good fundamentally at the beginning of the year, you’re not going to win a lot of games just because you throw so much scheme at the board that it you know automatically hits.
He continued: “So I’ve always kind of taken that approach try to — I’m not leaving it out purposely, but there’s definitely plenty we can always draw on, more scheme ideas or things like you’re referring to try to give us an advantage if we feel like that’s the smartest thing to do based on the opponent. I don’t think any of it works if the players don’t execute the other stuff, and they know that. They’re the first ones to tell you that.”
39.3% blitz rate
There’s a case to be made for the Patriots being the best blitzing defense in football.
They’ve blitzed at the fifth-highest rate, trailing only the Vikings, Commanders, Buccaneers and Broncos. When blitzing, they rank fourth in pressure rate, fifth in defensive success rate and fifth by Expected Points Added (EPA) per play, per SumerSports. No other defense ranks top-5 in all three categories.
Already, defensive coordinator Zak Kuhr has established himself one of the better play-callers and blitz designers in football. The Patriots are among the league leaders in generating unblocked pressure, dating back to the midpoint of last season, when their blitz identity first began to form. So far this season, sending extra rushers have saved their pass rush.
When they haven’t blitzed, they’ve generated pressure on just 30.5% of opponents’ dropbacks, the fourth-lowest rate in the NFL.
0 first-quarter points allowed
There are only two defenses that have yet to allow any points in the first quarter, and they both faced off in Week 3.
The Patriots and Jaguars are the last teams to pitch a first-quarter shoutout. Contrast this with a year ago, when the Pats ranked in the bottom 10 for first-quarter scoring defense for the first half of the season. The success of the 2026 defense, powered partly by continuity on the roster and coaching staff, has given the offense time to find its footing, specifically against Pittsburgh and Buffalo in the Patriots’ only two wins of the year.
.688 strength of schedule
Through Week 4, the Patriots have played the third-hardest schedule by opponents’ winning percentage at .688 percent.
Extrapolated over a full season, that would mean playing an entire regular-season schedule full of 11-12-win teams.
According to Sharp Football Stats, which also weighs preseason projected win totals, the Patriots’ schedule has been the second-toughest behind Denver. All four of their opponents made the postseason last year, and three are in the playoff picture if the season ended today, with Las Vegas also slated as the
Tough sledding.
The good news: their schedule projects to be one of the easiest in the NFL for the rest of the year, thanks primarily to two matchups each against the Jets and Dolphins.
17 players on IR
It took less than four weeks into the regular season for the Patriots to surpass their total number of players placed on injured reserve last year.
Backup offensive lineman Greg Van Roten, whom the team placed on IR on Sept. 29, became the 17th player to land on injured reserve and/or reach an injury settlement with the team this season. Last year, it wasn’t until Nov. 15 the Pats lost their first starter to IR. And that starter, Milton Williams, recovered in time to be in fine form for the playoffs.
As documented here last season, injury luck was a major driving force behind their Super Bowl run. That piece of history has not repeated itself in 2026, when the Patriots are the fourth-most injured team so far this season, according to RotoWire, which tracks and weights all injuries across the NFL based on severity. The Patriots currently have the fourth-most players on IR across the league, trailing only the 49ers, Saints and Texans.