Steelers linebackers Patrick Queen (6) and Payton Wilson (41) tackle Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (28) in game at Acrisure Stadium on Sunday Nov. 2, 2025.
Steelers linebackers Patrick Queen (6) and Payton Wilson (41) tackle Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (28) in game at Acrisure Stadium on Sunday Nov. 2, 2025.
The Steelers’ anemic third-down offense will have to step up against an expensive Colts secondary
Post-Gazette sports reporter Christopher Carter breaks down the Week 5 game vs. the Indianapolis Colts and lists the team’s keys to victory.
When the Steelers have the ball
Mike McCarthy’s offense has gotten off to some rough starts. But on Sunday, it gets the chance to face one of the NFL’s worst defenses in the Colts, who rank 22nd in points allowed, 31st in yards allowed and 29th in takeaways.
That’s a surprise considering the highly-paid defenders on the Colts’ roster, such as cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward and safety Cam Bynum, as well as defensive tackle DeForest Buckner.
The Colts defense hasn’t done many things particularly well through their first four contests, but they’ve improved in their last two games — both of which resulted in wins. But those also came against the 0-4 Texans and a 1-3 Commanders team that was down to its third-string quarterback.
[Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua (12) scores a touchdown during the first half of an NFL football game against the Philadelphia Eagles in Philadelphia, Sunday, Oct. 4, 2026.
Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua (12) scores a touchdown during the first half of an NFL football game against the Philadelphia Eagles in Philadelphia, Sunday, Oct. 4, 2026.](https://www.post-gazette.com/sports/steelers/2026/10/11/nfl-week-5-predictions-picks/stories/202610080053)
The biggest area for the Steelers to worry about could come from the Colts’ pass rush, which ranks 17th with sacks on 6.6% of their opponents’ dropbacks. The Steelers offensive line ranks 24th with an allowed sack rate of 8.4%.
But even more concerning will be the Colts’ third-down defense, which ranks fourth in the NFL, with opponents only converting 29.2%.
The Steelers are the polar opposite, with a third-down offense that converts just 32% of their opportunities, 28th best in the NFL. That number gets even worse when the Steelers are between third and 2 and third and 6, where the Steelers have converted an NFL-low 23.1% of their opportunities.
When the Colts have the ball
The Colts’ primary weapon is their superstar running back, Jonathan Taylor.
The 27-year-old former Wisconsin standout ranks fifth in the NFL with 353 rushing yards and third with six rushing touchdowns. Behind an offensive line anchored by three-time first-team All-Pro guard Quenton Nelson, Taylor gets space to be the playmaker who sets up the rest of the Colts offense.
Indianapolis’ passing attack hasn’t capitalized on Taylor’s production.
The team’s highest-paid receiver, Alec Pierce, is on injured reserve. Daniel Jones has proven to be turnover prone, with four interceptions to just three touchdown passes. Tight end Tyler Warren leads the team with two touchdown receptions and has the second-most catches on the team behind receiver Josh Downs.
[Browns wide receiver KC Concepcion carries between Steelers safety Jaquan Brisker and cornerback Daylen Everette during the second half of an NFL football game at Huntington Bank Field, Thursday, Oct. 1, 2026, in Cleveland.
Browns wide receiver KC Concepcion carries between Steelers safety Jaquan Brisker and cornerback Daylen Everette during the second half of an NFL football game at Huntington Bank Field, Thursday, Oct. 1, 2026, in Cleveland.](https://www.post-gazette.com/sports/steelers/2026/10/09/steelers-defense-daniel-jones-colts/stories/202610090018)
The Colts’ pass protection has somewhat struggled, which should work to the Steelers’ advantage. The Steelers have the eighth-best pass rush, with sacks on 8.8% of their opponents’ dropbacks, while the Colts rank 15th with a 6.1% allowed sack rate.
Key matchup
DK Metcalf vs. Sauce Gardner: Top dogs
Last week, Metcalf had his best game of the season, with 115 receiving yards against Denzel Ward and the Cleveland Browns.
Gardner is a fifth-year veteran with two first-team All-Pro seasons under his belt. But the cornerback for whom the Colts traded multiple first-round picks last year hasn’t completely delivered.
He’s yet to intercept a pass for the Colts between the second half of last season and four games this year and he’s giving up an passer rating of 125.6 to start the season.
If Metcalf can win his 1-on-1 opportunities with Gardner, it will unlock part of the offense that hasn’t been a major factor outside of the fourth quarter against the Browns.
If that forces the Colts to double-team Metcalf more with Michael Pittman Jr. out, it’ll also open up more chances for Pat Freiermuth, Darnell Washington, Germie Bernard and Roman Wilson in the passing attack.
The X-factor: Patrick Queen
Queen has had a roller-coaster start to the season. He played an important role in the Steelers’ win against the Cincinnati Bengals two weeks ago but struggled against the Browns last Thursday.
Last year, he was a big contributor to the Steelers’ upset over the Colts, when he had five tackles, a pass breakup and a forced fumble. Facing off against Taylor and the Colts’ rushing attack, the Steelers need Queen to fill holes this week and stuff Taylor at the line of scrimmage with limited missed tackles.
The Colts will also try to hit Warren over the middle to get their passing attack going, which is where Queen’s coverage can be an asset, as well. Queen’s allowed passer rating of 50.7 is third best among qualified NFL linebackers, which could play a big factor in taking Warren and Taylor away from the Colts’ passing attack.
Carter’s three keys
Be the better play-action team. The Colts use play-action passes seventh most in the NFL as a way to play off of Taylor’s production. But they’ve been terrible in their execution, with an average of 5.0 yards per play-action snap, which ranks 30th in the NFL.
Meanwhile, the Steelers rank 17th in how much they use play action but fourth in its execution, with an average of 9.0 yards per play action snap.
Beat man coverage. With Gardner and Ward, the Colts have used man coverage second most of any team in the NFL, behind only the Browns. But they’ve also struggled, with 8.3 yards per passing attempt on the season in man, which ranks 27th in the NFL.
This game could come down to how well the Steelers, who rank 22nd in the NFL against man-to-man, can beat a high-priced Colts secondary that has yet to live up to its billing.
Dominate the turnover battle. The Steelers and Colts live on opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to turnovers. The Steelers defense ranks second with two takeaways per game, while the Colts sit in 29th at 0.5.
If the Colts’ turnover production spikes against the Steelers, it could lead to disaster. But if the Steelers can win the turnover margin by a difference of two or three splash plays, it could be the factor that separates the teams.
The bottom line
Both the Steelers and Colts are at a crossroads after the first quarter of the season, as they each sit at 2-2.
Neither has played to the strengths of its roster particularly well. The Steelers haven’t consistently leaned into their heavier offensive personnel packages, while the Colts haven’t capitalized on the big money they put into their secondary or found any offensive success outside of Taylor.
Whichever team plays to its strength first will most likely be the victor.
The Steelers have statistical advantages, both on offense and defense. As long as quarterback Aaron Rodgers avoids turnovers and the Steelers don’t allow Taylor or a play-action attack to produce several explosive plays, the Steelers should control the pace of this game.
Carter’s call
Steelers 30, Colts 20
First Published: October 11, 2026, 1:00 a.m.