A year ago, the Patriots opened their season against the Raiders.
On Sunday, they will try to open a winning streak with the Raiders back in town.
Buoyed by their upset at Buffalo last weekend, the Pats are 2-2 and slated as 3.5-point favorites against Las Vegas. Drake Maye is coming off his best performance of the season, throwing three touchdowns and racking up more than 300 total yards rushing and passing. His rebound gave the Patriots a major lift, while they deal with myriad of injuries on offense and defense.
On Sunday, the Pats will be without starting cornerbacks Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis, wide receiver Mack Hollins and fullback Reggie Gilliam, among others. Meanwhile, the Raiders are 3-1, and just a few plays away from being undefeated as Patriots coach Mike Vrabel noted this week. How can the Pats avoid their own upset at home?
Here’s what to watch for in Foxboro:
#### When the Patriots run
Protect. The. Football.
Whether it’s Rhamondre Stevenson taking the bulk of carries or TreVeyon Henderson, the Patriots cannot afford to drop the ball against a defense that has forced a league-high 10 fumbles this season. Raiders linebacker Nakobe Dean leads with three, but he’s also missed seven tackles, which could set up Henderson for a breakaway score. Last week, Henderson broke three tackles, by far his most in a single game this season.
Otherwise, the Patriots have struggled to find any consistency on the ground due to poor blocking and some vision issues on Henderson’s part. Stevenson often picks up the yards available, but is not the same explosive-play threat and may be limited by a new injury. If he is, Corey Kiner could see his first real action of the season, a tackle-breaking machine in Arizona whom the Cardinals were nonetheless OK to trade to the Patriots just before cutdown day in late August.
Zooming out, both the Patriots’ rush offense and Raiders’ rush defense rank bottom 10 in the league.
#### When the Patriots pass
Efton Chism famously caught Maye’s last touchdown pass at Buffalo. Romeo Doubs snared the first two. And in the end, Hunter Henry secured Maye’s final pass attempt of the day to seal the win.
The Patriots will need all three players to continue stepping up if they’re to offset their injury woes at receiver. Otherwise, all Maye has out wide are slow starters DeMario Douglas and Kyle Williams, plus No. 2 tight end Eli Raridon and the running backs. Las Vegas does rank in the bottom 10 of the league at both defending tight ends and running backs by DVOA, which could open opportunities underneath. The Raiders also play a lot of Cover 3, which theoretically would open chances deep down the sideline for Maye to find Doubs against 1-on-1 coverage.
But unless the Patriots can keep Pro Bowl pass rusher Maxx Crosby off Maye, it won’t matter. Crosby, who leads Las Vegas with a dozen QB hits, has primarily aligned opposite right tackles, which would put him across from Patriots graybeard Morgan Moses on most snaps. Moses has averaged around there pressures allowed per game, while Will Campbell was closer to zero through the start of the season before he yielded five in Buffalo, where he also took two penalties.
Expect the Raiders to test both tackles Sunday, and call simulated pressures (four-man rushes with a linebacker or defensive back replacing a dropping lineman in the rush) against Maye to confuse him and force him to hold onto the ball. Las Vegas ranks among the league leaders in simulated pressures called this season. Ideally for Maye, if the play’s not there because of a swarming pass rush or clever scheme, he will throw the ball away.
#### When the Raiders run
Former top-10 pick Ashton Jeanty was limited by a foot injury late this week. That’s how the Raiders’ rushing attack, already the NFL’s worst-ranked rush offense by yards per carry, could go from bad to worse.
Las Vegas ran for just 72 yards last week in a loss to Kansas City, but not that poor outing, nor Jeanty’s injuries, is expected to dissuade the Raiders from trying to run the ball Sunday.
“They haven’t really been too good with the run and everything like that,” cornerback Marcus Jones said, “but you can definitely tell that they’re trying to establish it.”
Part of the Raiders’ insistence on handing the ball off is to set up their play-action game, a vital part of their offense. But on the ground, Jeanty is averaging 3.4 yards per rush, while his backup, Mike Washington Jr. is averaging 5.0, with 120 total yards and one touchdown. Las Vegas’ run-blocking has improved in the second half of some recent games, but overall still ranks dead last in percentage of runs that gain zero yards or fewer (25%).
If one-quarter of the Raiders’ runs get stuffed Sunday, it’s hard to see the Patriots, despite their own struggles up front, letting Jeanty or Washington loose without a major breakdown. Related: defensive lineman Christian Barmore (questionable, shoulder) could make his return to the field after a one-game absence.
Las Vegas Raiders tight end Brock Bowers runs with the ball against the New England Patriots during the second half of an NFL game last season in Foxboro. (AP Photo/Robert F. Bukaty)
#### When the Raiders pass
There’s Brock Bowers, and then there’s everyone else.
As much as the Raiders’ target distribution suggests a well-balanced attack (four players have seen between 23 and 25 targets), Bowers is far and away their biggest threat. He’s an All-Pro tight end with a wide receiver’s skill set, averaging more than 100 receiving yards per game and touchdowns in both games he’s played this season. The Patriots will find a way to devote extra attention to Bowers, even though Las Vegas moves him around the formation to complicate life for defenses.
The two other pass-catchers to know are speedy receiver Tre Tucker, who averages 15.5 yards per catch, and No. 2 tight end Michael Mayer, a steady chains-mover. Patriots cornerback Marcus Jones may see most of the Tucker matchups, with Gonzalez (shoulder) and Davis (neck) out due to injury. At 38, quarterback Kirk Cousins is a very much pocket-bound point guard for a Raiders team hoping he makes enough sound decisions to keep them in games.
Look for the Patriots to blitz Cousins up the middle to force him off his spot. Tackling well will also be a key against a Vegas offense built to maximize yards after the catch through Tucker and Bowers.
#### Prediction
Patriots 23, Raiders 16