Entering Week 5, the Chicago Bears’ defense was allowing just 16.3 points and 282.3 yards per game, ranking sixth in EPA/Play and seventh in Success Rate allowed.
But after surrendering 31 points and 428 yards to the Green Bay Packers on Sunday, those numbers took a significant hit. Chicago is now allowing 19.2 points and 311.4 yards per game, ranking 20th in EPA/Play and 10th in Success Rate allowed.
Was Sunday an aberration, or did the Packers expose what the Bears’ defensive numbers had been hiding all along?
Bears Defense Built on Shaky Ground
Coming off a season in which the Bears exceeded expectations in Ben Johnson’s first year at the helm, there was plenty of reason to believe Chicago was only scratching the surface of its potential.
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Caleb Williams‘ stardom was beginning to blossom, Johnson’s offensive system had another year to develop, and an organization that had spent years trying to find its footing suddenly looked like the team to beat in the NFC North.
But amid that excitement was one glaring concern: a defense that hadn’t inspired nearly the same confidence.
Last season, Chicago’s defense was an anomaly. The Bears finished 29th in yards allowed per game (361.8), 27th in Success Rate, 23rd in points allowed (24.4), and 21st in EPA/Play. Yet the Bears somehow led the NFL with 33 takeaways and a staggering +22 turnover differential.
Those turnovers masked a defense that struggled to consistently stop opponents. With takeaways notoriously difficult to sustain at such a high rate, regression seemed inevitable.
Chicago did little to address its lack of defensive star power in the offseason. Its biggest addition was former Seahawks safety Coby Bryant, who signed a three-year, $40 million deal before suffering a knee injury during training camp that required surgery and sidelined him for four to six months.
Coby Bryant on rookie Dillon Thieneman:
“Me being a year 5 guy and he’s a rookie so he wants to go full speed and everything so in the individual drills we have to tell him to slow down because I’m not running that fast.”🤣🤣 pic.twitter.com/8H4KouuNFd
— CHGO Bears (@CHGO_Bears) June 10, 2026
The Bears also invested their first-round pick in Oregon safety Dillon Thieneman, who has already shown flashes of becoming a difference-maker. However, the issues up front remained largely unaddressed.
Bears Benefited From a Favorable Stretch
There’s a reason Ben Johnson said, “I want to have the highest-scoring offense ever… I want shutouts. I want blowouts.”
It wasn’t just a goal. It was a necessity.
That much was evident in Week 1, when Chicago needed 59 points to overcome a Panthers offense that piled up 478 yards and 37 points.
Yet three weeks of favorable matchups somehow convinced many that Chicago had suddenly developed into one of the NFL’s better defenses.
From Weeks 2-4, Chicago faced Minnesota, Philadelphia, and the New York Jets, allowing just 9.3 points and 217 yards per game.
Phenomenal numbers? Absolutely. But taking them at face value without context is a mistake. And that’s what happened among portions of the fan base and national media heading into Sunday’s matchup at Lambeau Field.
In Week 2, the Bears limited the Vikings to nine points and 246 yards, yet still lost. Dennis Allen’s defense faced below-average backup quarterback Carson Wentz in miserable weather conditions that made moving the football a challenge. Even a college defense might have held its own in those conditions.
Next came one of the NFL’s most underachieving offenses over the past two seasons, led by Nick Sirianni, who is currently favored to be the first head coach fired this season. The Eagles mustered just seven points and 248 total yards against Chicago, and currently rank dead last in offensive Success Rate and 29th in EPA/Play.
Then the Bears were gifted an even more favorable matchup against perennial underachiever Geno Smith and the lowly Jets, who mustered just 12 points and 157 total yards.
“One of the easiest NFL games I done played in. I’m not sore at all. It was boring. I got bored.” -Bears linebacker Devin Bush after the 23-12 win over the Jets pic.twitter.com/nPA6cESgb6
— JM Football (@JomboyMediaFB) October 5, 2026
If that performance was enough to convince you Chicago’s defensive problems had suddenly disappeared, it might be time to reevaluate how you’re watching NFL games.
The Bears didn’t overhaul their defensive personnel or suddenly discover some revolutionary scheme. They simply benefited from a favorable three-game stretch and made the most of it.
Sunday’s loss to the Packers was a harsh reminder of that reality. Against two capable offenses, Carolina and Green Bay, the Bears surrendered a combined 68 points and 906 yards.
And the road ahead offers little relief. According to nfeloapp.com, Chicago faces the NFL’s seventh-toughest remaining schedule.
That’s not to say the Bears can’t improve, whether through internal development or reinforcements ahead of the trade deadline. But expecting this group to suddenly transform into an elite unit was always wishful thinking.
The Packers didn’t expose a defense that had been playing great football. They exposed one whose weaknesses had been masked by favorable circumstances. And with a much tougher schedule looming, Chicago can no longer count on its opponents to disguise its deficiencies.
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