NFL picks, predictions for Week 6: Chiefs add to Chargers' misery; 49ers stay unbeaten against Commanders image
Are we headed toward a third Super Bowl matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers?
The Chiefs beat the 49ers in Super Bowl 54 and Super Bowl 57. Now, Kansas City (4-0) and San Francisco (5-0) are two of the three remaining unbeaten teams left in the NFL heading into Week 6 along with Minnesota (5-0).
Will it last? Kansas City is a different offense with the addition of Kenneth Walker III as a complement to Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs have a balanced offense that has committed just two turnovers. The Chiefs are at home against the Los Angeles Chargers; one of three winless teams remaining in the NFL.
The 49ers get the Monday Night Football spotlight against the Washington Commanders. San Francisco is healthy behind Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey and a defense that ranks third in the NFL by allowing just 18.6 points per game.
Are we in the early stages of that third Super Bowl meeting between coaches Andy Reid and Kyle Shanahan? Kansas City has the best record in the AFC and San Francisco has thebest record in the NFC since that first matchup in 2019. We would not be surprised at all.
POWER RANKINGS:Pats, Lions climb while Eagles, Bears tumble
S/U: 51-28-1 (10-5-1 in Week 5)
ATS: 32-47-1 (8-8 in Week 5)
Here are our picks for Week 6: (Odds courtesy of FanDuel):
All spreads and odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
NFL picks, predictions for Week 6
Seattle Seahawks (-3) at Denver Broncos
Thursday, 8:15 p.m., Prime Video
Another good Thursday Night Football matchup. The Broncos are 2-0 S/U at home and have allowed just 20 points per game in those matchups. Seattle is a more consistent offensive team, but the Seahawks have seven turnovers in their two losses. Who wins on a short week? Sam Darnold has taken nine sacks. The protection must hold on a short week.
Pick: Seahawks 23, Broncos 21
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5)
Sunday, 9:30 a.m., NFL Network
The Jaguars stay in London after a thrilling victory in Week 5. CJ Stroud is 3-2 as a starter against Jacksonville. The Jaguars are 2-1 in one-score games, and Trevor Lawrence has a chance to take command of the AFC South. Can the Texans generate enough of a running game to pull off the upset?
Pick: Texans 22, Jaguars 19
MORE:How Marvin Harrison Jr. will impact Texans offense
Chicago Bears (-3.5) at Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
Which quarterbacks will be under center? Caleb Williams (groin) and Michael Penix Jr. (ribs) are dealing with injuries, and that makes this line tenuous. The Bears have a minus-7 turnover ratio the last two weeks, but they are solid against the run. That should be enough against Bijan Robinson, who leads the NFL with 580 rushing yards.
Pick: Bears 26, Falcons 20
Baltimore Ravens (-4.5) at Cleveland Browns
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
This is another game directly impacted by the quarterback situation. Will Lamar Jackson (hamstring) be out for another week? Tyler Huntley would get the start against Cleveland, a team we have not predicted correctly S/U each of the last four weeks. The Browns are 2-0 S/U as a home underdog this season, but a suspect run defense might have a tough time with Derrick Henry.
Pick: Ravens 28, Browns 17
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-6.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Titans are miserable on offense with 11.6 points per game. The Colts are 11th at 24.6 points per game. Tennessee has covered twice as an underdog of seven points or more, but there just isn't a lot to hang on to. Indianapolis' defense has struggled, but this feels like a get-right game. The Colts have won the last six meetings.
Pick: Colts 30, Titans 19
New York Jets at New England Patriots (-7.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
Drake Maye is coming off a 374-yard, four-TD performance against the Raiders. New York is 1-2 ATS as an underdog this season, and this is a battle of two top-10 scoring defenses. The hook makes the Jets an interesting play here. New England, however, will have success with its multi-dimensional running game with Maye, Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson.
Pick: Patriots 24, Jets 14
New Orleans Saints (-1.5) at New York Giants
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Giants are an experience under Jim Harbaugh. The Saints are a surprising early-season dud with a minus-6 turnover ratio. New Orleans is 2-0 ATS on the road. The Giants are even in turnover margin in Jameis Winston's three starts. It's a tricky line, but we'll take the home team that has allowed more than 200 passing yards in one game this season.
Pick: Giants 24, Saints 21
Jalen Hurt
Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
The Eagles are in a corner. Injuries have derailed the season, and the Panthers are coming off a bye week. Bryce Young has a 90.3 passer rating this season. It's an or-else game Philadelphia, and the pass defense has allowed more than 300 yards in each of the last two games. This might be a pick ‘em by kickoff.
Pick: Panthers 22, Eagles 20
MORE:Why not to panic about the Eagles, thanks to Hurts and Nick Sirianni
Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
Will the Buccaneers get Baker Mayfield (thumb) back for this matchup? Bucky Irving is coming off a splendid 165-yard performance, and Tampa Bay has an excellent run defense (72.6 ypg.) that is going to press Aaron Rodgers into some tough third-down situations. Rodgers has a 56.9% completion percentage on the road this season. The Steelers are 6-1 S/U all time at Tampa Bay.
Pick: Steelers 26, Buccaneers 16
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-12.5)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m., Fox
The Cardinals have allowed 37 points per game in their last four losses. Even on a short week, the Rams will be able to have success through the air with Matthew Stafford and his top two wideouts in Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. Rams coach Sean McVay has a 16-3 S/U record against the Cardinals, but Arizona covers with a late TD.
Pick: Rams 34, Cardinals 24
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., CBS
The Chargers lead the NFL with 13 turnovers – an ugly stat that continues to pop up in the worst moments. The Chiefs are coming off a bye week. The Chiefs are 9-4 S/U after a bye week under Andy Reid, a trend that will continue at home with Walker III providing the run support. The last four meetings have been one-score games.
Pick: Chiefs 25, Chargers 19
MORE:Why Chargers won't bench Justin Herbert anytime soon
Buffalo Bills (-5.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., CBS
The Raiders are in a spot here after back-to-back losses to the Chiefs and Patriots. Buffalo presents yet another challenge for a defense that has managed just one turnover the last two weeks. Kirk Cousins has a 62.5% completion percentage in those losses. It will be tough to keep up with the Bills if the running game isn't there.
Pick: Bills 30, Raiders 22
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (-1.5)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m., NBC
These teams played to a 40-40 tie on Sunday Night Football last season. Micah Parsons still is working his way back, and the Cowboys are coming off an embarrassing loss to Tampa Bay. The Packers can cure their anemic running game against a Cowboys' run defense that allows 168.6 yards per game. Jordan Love and Dak Prescott will make it entertaining again.
Pick: Packers 28, Cowboys 20
Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers (-7.5)
Monday, 8:15 p.m., ESPN
The Commanders are coming off a head-scratching tie, but they are 2-0 ATS as an underdog of six points or more. The 49ers are 3-0 S/U in NFC West games, so this is a bit of a trap game at home. Will this become a shootout in the second half? Brock Purdy – who has 8 TDs and no interceptions in three home games – keeps the 49ers rolling.
Pick: 49ers 34, Commanders 20
MORE:Dan Quinn furious after tie that 'feels like a loss'