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NFL picks, predictions against the spread Week 6: Packers corral Cowboys, Bills blow by Raiders image
Week 5 in the NFL was chalk full of blowouts, a few close finishes, a couple overtimes and the first tie of the 2026 regular season. That sets up another mixed bag of results in Week 6 as dive into another set of game picks and predictions against the spread.
The bye weeks ramp up to four teams being off, dropping the slate to 14 games. It's a break for two 3-2 teams (Cincinnati and Detroit), one 0-5 team (Miami) and one 5-0 team (Minnesota). That still leaves plenty of big-time action, including classic rivalries in the NFC and big-time division matchups in the AFC.
Here's Sporting News' latest fearless forecast of professional pigskin prognostications:
All spreads and odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
MORE: SN's latest NFL power rankings for Week 6
NFL picks against the spread for Week 6
Game of Midweek: Seahawks (-3, 41.5 o/u) at Broncos
Thursday 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video
The Seahawks need to clean up their offense with a limited running game and Sam Darnold struggling to protect the ball. They get a short-week break on the road with the Broncos' cornerbacks hurting, setting up Jaxon Smith-Njigba to explode again. Their defense also will make it rough on an inefficient Bo Nix.
Pick: Seahawks win 24-17 and cover the spread.
Game of the Week: Cowboys at Packers (-1.5, 52.5 o/u)
Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC/Peacock
The Packers found a little more in their running game to rout the Bears, but they have embraced being an aggressive passing team with Jordan Love in his prime throwing to two trusted downfield wide receivers, Christian Watson and Matthew Golden. Dallas knows about that with Dak Prescott operating with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. In the end, Green Bay's defense is a bit better overall and gets the Lambeau bump.
Pick: Packers win 31-27 and cover the spread.
Jordan Love
Jordan Love
AFC Game of the Week: Bills (-5.5, 52.5 o/u) at Raiders
Sunday 4;25 p.m. ET, CBS
The Bills, coming off a marquee Monday matchup with the Rams in Los Angeles, go to Las Vegas to find a lot of their fans ready to support them as Josh Allen duels Kirk Cousins. Expect Buffalo to win the rushing and turnover battle, leading to a rather easy victory..
Pick: Bills win 34-27 and cover the spread.
Lock of the Week: Chiefs (-8.5, 42.5 o/u) over Chargers
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
The Chiefs are coming off a bye under Andy Reid, which is bad news for Jim Harbaugh's winless team on the road with a losing record and a whiffing Justin Herbert. Kansas City will scheme to get more turnovers from Herbert. Patrick Mahomes and the offense finds another gear, too, playing off Kenneth Walker III and the run again at Arrowhead.
Pick: Chiefs win 30-14 and cover the spread.
MORE:Why Chargers won't bench Justin Herbert anytime soon
Upset of the Week: Texans (+2.5, 42.5 o/u) over Jaguars
Sunday 9:30 a.m. ET, NFL Network
Here we go again with a slow start for Houston at 1-4, but they team rallied well in a similar situation to get into the playoffs under DeMeco Ryans last season. Much of that came from dominating division play in the AFC South. Will Anderson Jr. and the Texans' defense comes up a little bigger than the Jaguars' active pressure front.
Pick: Texans win 23-20.
MARVIN HARRISON TRADE GRADES:Texans take a shot; Cardinals get great value
Caleb Williams
Caleb Williams
Bears (-3.5, 49.5 o/u) at Falcons
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Bears did well to stay above .500 minus Caleb Williams and get him back just in time with Tyson Bagent getting exposed. Atlanta has a QB injury issue again with Michael Penix Jr. and will be doomed without him. Chicago rebounds well from Green Bay with the running game defense humming along with a healthy Williams.
MORE: Remembering the toughest guy in the room, Mike Ditka
Pick: Bears win 27-20 and cover the spread.
Ravens (-4.5, 41.5 o/u) at Browns
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Browns have been a strong home team so far, going 2-0 with wins over the Panthers and Steelers. Baltimore escaped well in Atlanta with Tyler Huntley moving on the offense well. He will be unfazed filling for Lamar Jackson again with Derrick Henry's running and Jesse Minter's pass rush coming through to get the better of Deshaun Watson late.
Pick: Ravens win 20-17 but fail to cover the spread.
Titans at Colts (-6.5, 43.5 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
Cam Ward isn't getting it done at all in the new offense as Tennessee cannot run or pass well enough to win games. Robert Saleh can do only so much with the defense while Brian Daboll is struggling to find answers in execution. The Colts are more put-together with Jonathan Taylor, the key to rebounding back to .500 at home.
Pick: Colts win 24-20 but fail to cover the spread.
Jets at Patriots (-7.5, 43.5 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Patriots have their groove back against lesser opponents as Drake Maye has gone back to going nuclear as a downfield passer and dynamic runner. The Jets' defense will have trouble with a red-hot dual threat while Geno Smith gets closer to the bench.
Pick: Patriots win 26-14 and cover the spread.
Saints (-1.5, 45.5 o/u) at Giants
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Saints were home for three consecutive games and were the opposite of Super in losing them all. Tyler Shough still has a hold on the starting QB job, but the four-game losing skid has been full of mistakes for Kellen Moore's offense. Getting out of New Orleans might actually help as Shough relaxes to outduel former Saints starter Jameis Winston.
Pick: Saints win 27-24 and cover the spread.
Jalen Hurts
Jalen Hurts
Panthers at Eagles (-1.5, 41.5 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Eagles need to let Jalen Hurts loose as a runner and passer out of the pocket as his mobility and athleticism can help them big-time in busting their offensive slump, no matter who's out there with him. The Eagles' defense once again will flex vs. the pass to cool Bryce Young, giving Hurts a chance to finish a close victory.
Pick: Eagles win 23-20 and cover the spread.
MORE:Why not to panic about the Eagles, thanks to Hurts and Nick Sirianni
Steelers (-2.5, 40.5 o/u) at Buccaneers
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Steelers have seen Aaron Rodgers get locked into his wide receivers and tight ends, but the real spark has been the running, receiving and explosion of Jaylen Warren behind a line playing at a high level. That's taking a lot pressure off the defense, which just needs to contain the run for Rodgers to outduel undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels, 19 years his junior.
Pick: Steelers win 24-20 and cover the spread.
Cardinals at Rams (-12.5, 51.5 o/u)
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox
Mike LaFleur can't run the ball the way he would like with Arizona as Jacoby Brissett has returned to the pass-happiest ways of 2025. The Rams are fine with throwing often with Matthew Stafford and the Cardinals give up plenty to top wide receivers. LaFleur works hard to stay with his mentor Sean McVay but his team doesn't have the same explosiveness and balance.
Pick: Rams win 31-20 but fail to cover the spread.
Commanders at 49ers (-7.5, 50.5 o/u)
Monday 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC
The Commanders are becoming beleaguered under coach Dan Quinn and the end of his tenure might be coming soon, even as Jayden Daniels is back healthy and producing like he did as a rookie. Quinn gets to coach defense vs. red-hot Kyle Shanahan, his one-time offensive coordinator in Atlanta who helped get Matt Ryan and the Falcons to Super Bowl 51. San Francisco keeps taking care of business with a still perfect Brock Purdy.
Pick: 49ers win 34-17 and cover the spread.
Stats of the Week
Week 5 straight up record: 11-4
Week 5 against the spread record: 7-9
Season-to-date straight up record: 50-29
Season-to-date against the spread record: 36-44