It was another mixed bag with the defense rankings for last week. On one hand, six of my top 10 defenses did, in fact, finish in the top ten. The Vikings, Texans, and Bengals all delivered solid performances, but the Jaguars and Bears, who I had ranked inside the top five, combined for just three fantasy points. Some of this is continuing to figure out which defenses are truly good and which have been impacted by easy schedules, and some of it is also trying to figure out how much to factor in injuries. For example, **Jalon Daniels** was brutal against the Packers, so it made sense to target him with the Cowboys on Thursday Night Football. Yet, he then torched the Cowboys.
The common thread on our misses was splash plays. Jacksonville held Philadelphia to 3.9 yards per play, and kind of dominated that game on defense. But they had no sacks or turnovers. The best finishers that were underrated, the 49ers and Packers, got those sacks and made those splash plays. Yet, they had not gotten them previously, and there were no indications that splash plays were coming. In fact, as I’ve gone through the data, I’ve seen that turnovers and sacks are not sticky week over week. If you take a defense that forced plenty of turnovers one week and chase them the next, you’re not more likely to get turnovers that second week.
So, at the end of the day, I’m still going to treat one-week spike performances by a defense as noise. I’m still going to try and favor defenses that are consistently getting pressure and getting off the field on third down, and we’ll see how it goes. So far, as you can see in the chart below, it’s going pretty well.
As a reminder, what you’ll get below, and every week, is not just my rankings but also my thoughts on why teams are ranked how they are. **Tier One** will be my “elite” plays of the week. **Tier Two** will be plays that I consider strong, while **Tier Three** will almost always be borderline top-10 plays. Those are either good defenses in bad matchups or mediocre defenses in good matchups. **Tier Four** will be deep-league targets, and **Tier Five** will be defenses that nobody should be playing that particular week.
**_👀 ▶_** [**_Rotoworld Football Show: Run-first Chiefs + Biggest Week 1 surprises, disappointments_**](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=55AWneQbNtk)
Each week, I’ll keep track of how many Top-10 defenses I correctly called, so we can all see how accurate the BOD (Best Overall Defense) rankings are.
### **_2026 SEASON SUCCESS RATE_**
Chart data
Top-10 hits
Top-10 hit rate
Top-16 hits
Top-16 hit rate
My Ranks, Week 5
6
60.0%
10
62.5%
Consensus, Week 5
6
60.0%
11
68.8%
My Ranks, season to date
27
54.0%
51
63.8%
Consensus\*, season to date
23
46.0%
37
57.8%
_\*Consensus Rankings are taken from FantasyPros Consensus Rankings around 10 am on Sundays. For Week 1 only this season, I used a combination of ClutchPoints and RotoBaller._
### **BOD Formula and Philosophy**
If you’ve read my earlier articles, then you know that I value defenses that get pressure on the quarterback and create turnover opportunities, which is likely what most people value. However, that means I look at underlying metrics and try to value the quality of the defense over simply saying, “Who is playing a bad offense?” Yet, when I did a deep dive this offseason, I discovered that the stats most commonly associated with top-10 fantasy defenses were first-down allowed, points per game allowed, and third-down conversion rate allowed. So even though I love defenses who get pressure, defenses who can also get off the field quickly tend to be the best fantasy defenses. Perhaps this isn’t a shock, but maybe we’re not really paying attention to the relevant stats when predicting fantasy defensive performance.
The next four most predictive defensive stats were pressure rate, passes defended, turnover rate, and explosive play rate allowed (plays over 20+ yards). With that in mind, I decided to update my Best Overall Defense (BOD) formula to include just these seven stats. I doubled the weight of the first three stats, which are more predictive, and have a single weight for the other four stats. I also incorporate Vegas’ implied team total in the algorithm every week, and when we get opponent stats, I will include fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses as part of the equation since fantasy points are the strongest predictor of fantasy points.
I’ll obviously have to adjust the algorithm each week for injuries or weather, but I try not to rely too much on “gut feel” or concerns about wind, etc.
With that out of the way, onto the rankings.
**_FOR A MORE DETAILED DISCUSSION OF DST PLAYS FOR THIS WEEK, CHECK OUT ERIC’S PICK 3(DST) VIDEO_** **_OVER ON THE NFL ON NBC YOUTUBE PAGE._**
**2026 Week 6 DST Rankings**
**Rank**
**Tier One DSTs**
**Opponent**
**1**
**Kansas City Chiefs**
vs LAC
**2**
**Seattle Seahawks**
at DEN
**3**
**Jacksonville Jaguars**
vs HOU
The Chiefs are coming off a bye, so they’ve had two weeks to prepare for an incredibly banged-up Chargers offense. **Ladd McConkey** was active on Sunday but barely played any snaps, and then the Chargers lost **Tre’ Harris** to injury too. The Chargers are projected for just 17.0 points, the lowest implied team total of Week 6, and they have allowed 10.2 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses, which is the most in the NFL. Kansas City is 7th in points per game allowed, 7th in turnover rate, and 8th in explosive plays allowed. Through four games, opposing quarterbacks have thrown a touchdown on just 2.7% of their passes against the Chiefs, which is the third-lowest rate in the league, and I don’t expect **Justin Herbert** to change that this week.
Seattle’s underlying numbers are about as good as anyone’s, so I’m going to trust them most weeks based on that alone. It’s why I had them as a top 10 defense last week against the 49ers, who are a much tougher matchup than the Broncos. On the season, the Seahawks are 2nd in explosive plays allowed (7.9%), 3rd in third-down conversion rate (29.4%), 3rd in pressure rate (43.8%), 3rd in first downs allowed per game (16.0), 3rd in fantasy points per game among defenses (8.8), and 6th in turnover rate (15.5%). That’s a really solid overall defense. Meanwhile, Denver seems to lack any real identity or playmaking on offense and is projected for just 19.0 points on a short week, so I’m going to go back to the well with the Seahawks here.
I know the Jags just let us down as our top-ranked defense in Week 5, but the actual defense played really well in that game. The Jaguars are tied for 2nd in turnover rate, 7th in pressure rate, 9th in first downs allowed per game, and 10th in third-down conversion rate. They average 8.2 fantasy points per game, which is 4th among defenses. The Texans just lost **David Montgomery** to an injury, and potentially offensive tackle **Braden Smith** as well. They were struggling to run the ball before, and it’s not going to get better now. The Texans have an implied team total of 19.75 points in this one, and I think we get a bounce-back from the Jags.
**Rank**
**Tier Two DSTs**
**Opponent**
**4**
**Pittsburgh Steelers**
at TB
**5**
**New England Patriots**
vs NYJ
**6**
**Baltimore Ravens**
at CLE
What to do about Tampa Bay? Their offense was a disaster in Week 4 against the Packers and then looked really solid in Week 5 against the Cowboys. I think a lot of that has to do with the running game. **Bucky Irving** just abused the Cowboys last week. Well, on Sunday, the Steelers held **Jonathan Taylor** to 45 yards on 15 carries and the Colts to 4-for-14 on third down, so this is not the Cowboys defense. Tampa Bay is projected for just 18.75 points, and the Bucs have allowed 10.0 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses this season, the second-most in the league. Pittsburgh is 6th in third-down conversion rate (32.8%), 6th in fantasy points per game among defenses (7.6), 7th in first downs allowed per game (18.2) and 10th in turnover rate (12.7%), so I feel pretty good about them finishing with a top 10 score, and I’m going to bank on a step back for **Jalon Daniels** against a far superior defense.
Some of New England’s rank will depend on their injury updates. **Christian Gonzalez** or **Carlton Davis** being cleared would help, because the top corners were inactive last week, and **Garrett Wilson** is really the Jets’ only major playmaker. **Kenyon Sadiq** suffered a concussion on Sunday, and we have no clue if **Adonai Mitchell** is coming back. On the season, New England is 4th in points per game allowed (18.8), 6th in first downs allowed per game (17.4), 9th in fantasy points per game among defenses (7.4), and 10th in explosive plays allowed (11.5%). They aren’t going to let the Jets make any big plays, and the Jets are projected for just 18 points, which is one of the lowest totals on the slate. That makes me feel good about the Pats.
This one is all about the matchup. Cleveland is projected for 18 points, tied with the Jets for the second-lowest on the board. While we thought the Browns’ offense may have taken a step forward this season, they have allowed 8.2 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses, tied for the fifth-most, and **Deshaun Watson** took a whopping eight sacks against the Jets on Sunday. Baltimore’s own numbers are middling, but the Ravens allowed just one red-zone touchdown on Atlanta’s four trips last week, and this Browns offensive line is a mess. If **Quinshon Judkins,** who was in a boot after the game, is at all limited, that’s even better news for the Ravens defense.
**Rank**
**Tier Three DSTs**
**Opponent**
**7**
**Los Angeles Rams**
vs ARI
**8**
**Denver Broncos**
vs SEA
**9**
**San Francisco 49ers**
vs WAS
**10**
**Chicago Bears**
at ATL
**11**
**Indianapolis Colts**
vs TEN
**12**
**Carolina Panthers**
at PHI
**13**
**New York Jets**
at NE
**14**
**Tampa Bay Bucs**
vs PIT
The Rams are 4th in pressure rate, 6th in third-down conversion rate, and 7th in both explosive plays allowed and first downs allowed per game. They haven’t put up massive fantasy totals yet, but **Aaron Donald** and **Jaylen Watson** returned on Monday, and the defense played better than the final score would indicate. They simply had no answer for **Josh Allen** as a runner. The Cardinals do not have the same threat in **Jacoby Brissett.** The Cardinals have just a 19.5 implied team total for this game, and the Rams really need a win to get back to .500, so I expect a fired-up performance here.
The Denver offense is a mess, but their defense remains solid after a slow start to the season. They are 5th in fantasy points per game among defenses and tied for 8th in pressure rate (39.1%). The Broncos held the Chargers to 3.8 yards per play and forced three turnovers last week. Injuries are the concern, as cornerback **Patrick Surtain II** is likely to miss the short week, but **Riley Moss** did get a limited practice in on Monday, so that’s a good sign. However, the bigger story is that **Jaxon Smith-Njigba** suffered an ankle injury on Sunday and now has to recover on a short week. Even if he plays, it’s likely that he’s not operating at 100%, which is a big boost for Denver. Seattle is projected for 21.5 points, and the Seahawks’ offense has allowed 8.2 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses, tied for the fifth-most, which keeps Denver in my top 10.
No defense allows explosive plays less often than the 49ers, who led the NFL with a 6.6% mark. They are also 3rd in points per game allowed (18.6), 4th in first downs allowed per game (17.0), and are averaging 7.6 fantasy points per game, which is 6th among defenses. **Dre Greenlaw** returned last week, and, even without **Nick Bosa**, San Francisco still had five sacks, eight quarterback hits, and four takeaways against Seattle. Bosa (calf) said he is “pretty darn likely” to play Monday night, which would be a pretty big boost for this lineup. Washington is projected for 21.5 points and may be without **Stefon Diggs** again, so the 49ers can sneak into my top 10.
The Bears burned us last week, so I’m a little nervous here, but there’s also a chance that **Michael Penix Jr.'s** rib injury holds him out of this game or causes him to leave early.
Chicago is also 2nd in the league in third-down conversion rate (26.0%), 2nd in first downs allowed per game (14.8), and 5th in points per game allowed (19.2). The problem is that they also allow one of the highest explosive play rates in the league. **Jordan Love** took advantage of that and threw for 367 yards against them on 11.8 yards per attempt, which could be a concern if Penix can go.
Another matchup-based play. The Titans are projected for just 18.75 points, tied for the fourth-lowest on the slate, and Tennessee’s offense has allowed 8.2 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses, which is tied for the fifth-most. **Cam Ward** posted a 15.1 QBR on 4.7 yards per attempt against Houston, and the offense has simply not shown any signs of life. Indianapolis is not a particularly good defense, and **Arden Key** was put on the IR, but they are 4th in third-down conversion rate allowed (30.5%), which means they can get this Titans offense off the field. The Colts have forced very few turnovers, so this is more of a matchup play based on it being a low-scoring game than a full vote of confidence.
Carolina comes off a bye with two weeks to prepare for a banged-up Eagles offense. Carolina’s pressure rate is also 5th in the league (40.5%), and they are averaging 7.5 fantasy points per game, which is 8th among defenses. Philadelphia is projected for 21.5 points, and the Eagles’ backfield is thin with **Tank Bigsby** on injured reserve, and **Will Shipley** is out. As of now, that leaves only Dameon Pierce and Carson Steele healthy, but Eagles coach Nick Sirianni is “hopeful” Philadelphia will get offensive reinforcements this week, which could mean one or both of **Saquon** **Barkley** or **DeVonta Smith**. As of now, I am counting them both as out, but if one or both play, the Panthers would likely drop outside of my top 15. The Panthers have also dealt with a lot of injuries up front and in the secondary, including **Nic Scourton** (out for the season), **Jaelan Phillips** (could return this week), and corners **Mike Jackson** and **Jaycee Horn.**
The Jets delivered for us as a top 10 option last week, but they’re more of a deeper league play this week. They are 5th in points per game allowed (19.2), 5th in explosive plays allowed (10.4%), and 8th in third-down conversion rate (33.9%), and are averaging 7.4 fantasy points per game, which is 9th among defenses. Rookie **David Bailey** had three sacks last week, and New York sacked Deshaun Watson eight times. New England’s implied team total of 25.5 is the highest of any offense a top-14 defense faces this week, which is why the Jets are not higher. Yet, the Patriots’ offense has allowed 8 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses, which tied for the eighth-most. They have certainly played better football of late, but they could be without left tackle **Will Campbell** (knee) and running back **TreVeyon Henderson** (ankle) in this one. **A.J. Brown** (knee) could practice, and Patriots’ coach Mike Vrabel says there “is a chance” he returns, but we have him out for now.
I don’t love this matchup, but that’s why the Bucs are 14th. Tampa Bay is 4th in first downs allowed per game (17.0) and 8th in third-down conversion rate (33.9%), and held Dallas to 16 points last week, so they have shown that they can produce. However, pressure rate is the weak spot, as they are among the lowest in the league at 26.3%. Pittsburgh is projected for 21.75 points, and this game has one of the lowest totals on the slate, so we could get a low-scoring game which gives both teams a safe floor. Steelers receiver **Roman Wilson** dislocated a finger, which helps a little, considering they are also without **Michael Pittman,** who has a foot injury.
**Rank**
**Tier Four DSTs**
**Opponent**
**15**
**New York Giants**
vs NO
**16**
**Cleveland Browns**
vs BAL
**17**
**Philadelphia Eagles**
vs CAR
**18**
**Houston Texans**
at JAX
**19**
**New Orleans Saints**
at NYG
**20**
**Atlanta Falcons**
vs CHI
**21**
**Green Bay Packers**
vs DAL
Defenses ranked this low may be intriguing, but I can’t consider playing them outside of the deepest formats.
The Giants are 8th in turnover rate (13.2%) and 9th in points per game allowed (21.2) despite the fact that they are missing **Brian Burns, Roy Robertson-Harris,** and **Chauncey Golston**, who are on injured reserve. New Orleans is projected for 22.0 points, and the Saints’ offense has allowed 8.0 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses, tied for the eighth-most, so this is a fringe player in deeper formats.
As of now, I’m ranking the Browns as if **Lamar Jackson** will return in Week 6, and that doesn’t make me excited to play them.
**Will Anderson Jr.** had three sacks, and **Danielle Hunter** added a sack and two quarterback hits in Houston’s win over the Titans, but that was the Titans. Yes, the Texans are 10th in pressure rate (39.0%), and Jaguars offensive lineman **Anton Harrison** (knee) will miss at least three to five weeks, so that could help Houston considering Jacksonville’s line already has the league’s third-worst pass blocking win rate in the league. The issue is that, even with that, Jacksonville is projected for 22.75 points, and Texans safety **Jalen Pitre** is week-to-week with an injury, which this secondary can’t afford.
The Saints’ underlying numbers are some of the worst in the league. They are 31st in points per game allowed, 29th in third-down conversion rate, and 29th in first downs per game. They’re also 27th in pressure rate and 28th in turnover rate, so there aren’t many sacks or takeaways to make up for the yards. The Giants are projected for 23.5 points, and their offense has allowed 7.2 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses, so this is a fine matchup but not the elite one this ranking seems to imply. The Saints did score 12 fantasy points last week, which is likely part of why the consensus likes them, but that was because of an 87-yard fumble returned for a touchdown. I treat one-week spikes as noise, and the Saints have not shown the consistent performance to indicate they can make those big plays week after week, so I’m not going to be buying into them here.
**Rank**
**Tier Five DSTs**
**Opponent**
**24**
**San Francisco 49ers**
at SEA
**25**
**Miami Dolphins**
vs CIN
**26**
**Philadelphia Eagles**
at JAX
**27**
**Detroit Lions**
at ARI
**28**
**Tampa Bay Bucs**
at DAL
**29**
**Buffalo Bills**
at LAR
**30**
**Arizona Cardinals**
vs DET
**31**
**Carolina Panthers**
**BYE**
**32**
**Kansas City Chiefs**
**BYE**
As always, I can’t recommend playing any defense that you see here in Tier 5.