Xabi Alonso Has ‘No Explanation’, So Why Are Chelsea Scoring So Many Early Goals?
Chelsea have started the Xabi Alonso era by scoring a remarkable number of goals very early on in their games. Why do they start so well, and why do they then fade?
Even though they’ve done it so many times already, it is still a surprise every time Chelsea repeat the trick.
On Saturday, Xabi Alonso’s side went into their meeting with Bournemouth having scored three goals in the opening five minutes of their first five league games this season. The other 19 Premier League teams had just two such goals between them.
And yet, it was still a shock to see them add to their total, but largely because of how they did it.
For starters, they didn’t just score once within the first five minutes of the game, but twice. And they didn’t just do it inside five minutes, but inside three. With goals from Jordan Henderson and Morgan Rogers by the time the clock read 2:29, Chelsea had raced into the third-earliest 2-0 lead in Premier League history (after Leicester vs Derby in April 1998 and Luton vs Brighton in January 2024).
Given Alonso’s reign had begun with João Pedro’s goal after 31 seconds of the season opener against Fulham, Roméo Lavia’s fourth-minute goal against Brighton, and Rogers’ second-minute strike at Arsenal, subsequent opponents might have been well advised to set up with Chelsea’s fast starts in mind. But they scored inside seven minutes against Hull and then twice within the first three minutes against Bournemouth.
Chelsea xG map in the first 15 minutes of Premier League games 2026-27
Chelsea xG map in the first 15 minutes of Premier League games 2026-27
The problem for their opponents is there is no pattern to follow. Chelsea don’t attack in a particular way from the early stages. There isn’t some single thing or theme that future opponents should be looking out for.
In fact, only once this season have Chelsea started off with a clear intention to put their opponents on the back foot by booting the ball straight out from kick-off for a throw-in deep in opposition territory. That was the 3-0 defeat at Brentford, the only game in which Chelsea didn’t score an early goal (or score at all for that matter).
Their manager insists there is no gameplan to start quickly, no intention to begin games with a focus on scoring early. “I have nothing to do with it, so I don’t have the answer,” Alonso said after the win over Bournemouth. “I have no explanation, so I can take no credit.”
Rogers disagrees. “I put it down to the manager’s team talks,” the midfielder said after he scored against Bournemouth this weekend, his third goal inside the first seven minutes of a Premier League game since joining Chelsea.
“He gets us firing, gets us going,” he continued. “We always want to start off on the front foot. It is about starting well and getting the lead.
“A lot of games, especially at home, we have won after jumping on the back of early goals. It’s a good trait to have which we need to keep doing.”
Alonso may not realise he is doing it, but Rogers’ comments suggest the manager is having an impact with his pre-game words.
Also, there may well be a feeling of momentum among the players. Reports from inside the dressing room suggest there is confidence they can score an early goal, and joking among the players as to who is going to score it, not as to whether the team will get one at all.
Whatever the reason, what’s certain is the impressive volume of early goals and the efficiency with which they are finishing off chances at the start of games.
They have four goals inside the first three minutes of Premier League games this season, while the other 19 teams have just two between them. Chelsea’s four goals in this time have come from just five shots and 0.71 xG. The two goals scored by everyone else have been scored almost perfectly in line with the expected goals value of the shots (1.92 xG).
Chelsea xG map in the first three minutes of Premier League games 2026-27
Chelsea xG map in the first three minutes of Premier League games 2026-27
Inside the first five minutes of games, they have five goals from 1.52 xG. Expand things to the opening 15 minutes, and they have seven goals from 2.28 xG.
Chelsea have outperformed their xG so comprehensively early on because their early goals have almost exclusively been difficult chances. João Pedro’s goal at Fulham was a gorgeous chipped finish over the goalkeeper. Rogers’ strike at Arsenal was a volley from the edge of the area, while his opener against Hull was a fine low finish from the corner of the box. And both early goals against Bournemouth last weekend were from distance with several opponents in the way.
Perhaps Chelsea players feel at the start of games that they have more licence to shoot from distance, emboldened to take things on that they might not later in games because there is less pressure to make their chances count. And this, along with the confidence that Alonso gives them could just be an effective combination.
Clearly, Chelsea also have an abundance of talented attacking players, all of whom have started the season in form, and it might just be a coincidence that they are performing so well early on in games.
Their record is unquestionably striking, though. They have a goal difference of +7 (seven goals scored, none conceded) in the first 15 minutes of Premier League games this season, which is three goals better than any other team in any 15-minute period of the game (Manchester City 75-90 and Brighton 30-45 both have +4 goal difference). Outside of that period, Chelsea’s goal difference is -5.
Premier League 2026-27 - most goals by 15-minute period
Premier League 2026-27 - most goals by 15-minute period
It’s a peculiar quirk, and it is difficult to find a reason for the difference. There’s a possibility Chelsea players are tiring after their lightning-quick starts, while the team also might be significantly weakened by substitutions as games go on. There is also the fact that as they almost always take an early lead, their opponents play most of their meetings a goal (or two) behind, and therefore have more reason to attack.
This might all stop as the season goes on, or as opponents focus more on stopping Chelsea at the start of their games, but for now, Alonso’s side are well on course to break a few Premier League records for early goals.
With seven goals, they are already more than a third of the way to the record for the most goals in the opening 15 minutes of Premier League games (19 by Manchester City in 2018-19) despite being just six games into the season.
Their five goals inside five minutes mean they are already past halfway to the record for a season (nine by Liverpool in 2013-14). And with four goals inside three minutes, they are, unbelievably, already just two goals off the record for an entire season (six by Manchester United in 2010-11).
Most goals in the first three minutes in a Premier League season
Most goals in the first three minutes in a Premier League season
The thing is, two of those record-holders – City in 2018-19 and United in 2010-11 – won the title that season, and the other (Liverpool in 2013-14) came extraordinarily close. Chelsea appear a long way off challenging for the title this season.
That’s largely because their defence has been so porous, conceding the joint-most goals of any team in the Premier League this season (13). None of the other teams in the league’s top eight positions have conceded more than six goals.
Chelsea need to start pairing these fast starts with better game management. They might have gone on to beat Bournemouth last weekend, but they lost on xG, suggesting at the very least that the 5-1 scoreline flattered them. They gave up too many chances and perhaps should not expect to rely on their exceptional finishing.
They should, however, continue to harness the confidence flowing through the attacking parts of the team. The belief the Chelsea players have appears to be self-fulfilling, and the more they score early in games, the more they’ll believe they can do it again.
They might need to improve when it comes to building on their leads, but there is also every reason for them to enjoy quite how often they are scoring early.
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Premier League Opta Stats
Premier League Opta Stats