Arsenal made it 10 wins from 11 games this season, and three in a row since the end of the Interlull, after a late Noni Madueke goal earned us all three points against Nottingham Forest.
The first half happened. Mikel Arteta brought his ‘big guns’ back in, Eberechi Eze kept his place on the left hand side, but it was a 45 minutes of football to be endured rather than enjoyed. There were a couple of half-chances for Kai Havertz, and that was about it, but despite the fact we’d had nearly 75% possession at the break, Forest had more shots than us in the opening period (five to three).
It wasn’t much better in the second half, but we’d changed something by then with Madueke on for Eze, and he did give us a bit more on the left. Nevertheless, the challenge we faced was a difficult one, and this is where the analysis of this game gets interesting, because I think two things can be true. First, as a team we lack final third quality which makes life more difficult for us when we face a well organised, well disciplined team who sit in a low block.
The second thing is that we faced exactly that team yesterday, and I think it’s too simplistic, or one-eyed, to suggest that our failure to find a breakthrough is entirely down to our shortcomings. Forest were set up to snuff us out, to make it really tough to find space to create chances, and they did that really, really well. Speaking afterwards, Oliver Glasner made it clear he was impressed with that aspect of their game plan:
I think the performance in many parts was really good. Defensively it was on a very good, maybe on a top level, and giving them one shot on target. At the end, with one situation that always can happen, we are losing the game. So for me personally it’s a very frustrating result, but another, I would say, positive performance.
Which isn’t to make excuses for us, but I don’t think it’s unreasonable to point out that the opposition are a factor. Someone like Daniel Munoz, for example, is a wing-back who gets forward again and again, but in this game barely crossed the halfway line. Some of that might have been the fact we dominated possession and played a lot of the game in their half, but clearly some of it is instruction too, and it does make it difficult.
All the same, it’s a challenge that as champions we are going to face again and again this season, and we need to find ways to deal with it. There were moments, a Gabriel header that he’d back himself to do better with, and then a glorious chance for Declan Rice created by substitute Jurrien Timber but he skied his shot over the bar when he should have hit the target. It was slim pickings overall though. Havertz and Bukayo Saka were below par again, there was no room for Bruno Guimaraes to try and find the forward passes he likes so much, and you couldn’t help but wonder where the breakthrough was going to come from.
Then Madueke picked up a pass from Rice, drove into the box, made space with a nice stepover/shimmy, and fired a shot which deflected off the thigh of a defender and into the back of the net. It was reward for his endeavour, and that little extra he has in terms of a burst of pace allowed him the room to get that shot off. Perhaps a touch of good fortune, but it also showed the value of just letting fly rather than trying to fashion the perfect chance.
So with 10 minutes to go, and not a lot of injury time, you felt that would be that. Arsenal controlled possession as we headed towards 90 minutes, and looked pretty assured, but then – as football can often do – it went a bit mental. An extremely foul throw from Liam Delap brought about a chance for Chris Wood which Rice got back very well to block in our box; then Murillo almost scored what would have been a contender for goal of the season with a run into our box and a right footed shot that just started dipping after it flew over the top corner; before Ezri Konsa had to deny Delap with brilliant block which led to a corner that ultimately Forest wasted in the final seconds.
It’s hard to really explain how we found ourselves exposed like that three times in three minutes, and I’m sure it’s something the manager and his coaching staff will analyse in detail because I think we kinda got away with it a bit there. Credit to our lads for their defensive work, but the fact they had those opportunities at all is a bit of a worry. Still, after the final whistle, and after two successive 0-0s here in the last two seasons, Arteta was pleased with a win at the City Ground at last:
A big win. A win that we didn’t have in the last two seasons at a really tough place. We knew the game was going to be with small margins. They are extremely well-coached, their shape is like a Christmas tree, you have no space to play.
In the second half we had to play a completely different game. Elevate the level of threat and risk that we would have to take. But at the same time, be very composed and disciplined to make sure that the game doesn’t open up and lose it, and we sustained the level. We had better moments, more sustained attacks, much closer to the 18-yard box.
Ball territory heatmap, 2nd half, Nottingham Forest v Arsenal, Arsenal attacking left to right: own third 27%, middle 31%, final third 42%.
Ball territory heatmap, 2nd half, Nottingham Forest v Arsenal, Arsenal attacking left to right: own third 27%, middle 31%, final third 42%.
He also had some words for the match winner, Madueke, saying:
We’ve seen a different Noni since the international break, and that’s what we need. Another level of anger and conviction in his actions, and he’s becoming now decisive in matches which is what we expect from our players.
His contribution was telling, and fair play to him. Another player making a big impact off the bench, after another game in which Arsenal failed to score a first half goal. I think first and foremost we need to give this team credit for the way it has the ability to win games. As I said above, it’s 10 wins from 11 in all competitions this season, and that’s no accident. There’s a resilience and character that I think we can all see that we shouldn’t overlook. If I said we have the knack of winning that feels a bit unfair, as it it’s just a temporary thing, because this is a big part of who we are. We are ridiculously effective, if not necessarily always convincing and/or entertaining.
Again, two things can be true. I recognise that teams will make life hard for us, in the Premier League in particular the level is so high these days, and as defending champions we also face a particular motivation from the opposition because everyone wants to measure themselves against the team that just won the league. It’s not easy, but I also think we can be a bit pedestrian at times, and that in the final third there is obvious room for improvement in terms of the individual quality of certain players. Some of that is their own level of performance which can be better, but overall our recruitment in this area of the pitch has not been as effective as in other positions, and in the medium-long term that is something we have to address.
Until then though, Mikel Arteta has to find a way to get more from the players we have, and to think of ways to deal with teams who will see the way Forest played, and others have played against us this season, and use it as a blueprint. It won’t be the last time we face a side who sits as deep as that, and with the squad we have there’s a need to be find solutions. Sometimes it’s a goal like Madueke’s yesterday, or Guimaraes at Sunderland which cracked that game open. What we can be reasonably assured of is that this an Arsenal team that will not be found wanting in terms of effort, and one that more often than not can find a way to make that breakthrough.
Which is to say, get ready for the grind folks. It’s gonna be like this a lot. Although I will come back to that first half issue we have, because as tough as it is, earlier goals tend mean more open games, and some improvement there would make the opposition’s main challenge an attacking one rather than a defensive one in terms of their own game plan. I know it’s very simplistic to say ‘just score earlier’, but there’s no doubt it would help.
Right, I’ll leave it there for now. James and I recorded the Arsecast Extra straight after the game last night, so if you haven’t had a chance to listen yet, that’s below. We’ll have an episode of The 30 over on Patreon later this morning too, so stand by for that.