Liverpool fan at Anfield stadium
Liverpool fan at Anfield stadium
Liverpool have beaten Manchester City 95 times. City have beaten Liverpool 54 times. On 11 October, the shorter list grew again: City won 3-0 at Anfield, their fourth win in a row in the fixture, according to the rivalry’s all-time record.
A fan who reads the long record expects Liverpool to win. A fan who reads the last four games expects City to be on top again. Who is right? Well, only the match itself can tell.
Still, you can try and guess using data from a head-to-head record, if you know how to read it.
What a long record does tell you
A long record shows the shape of a rivalry. For example, Liverpool and Manchester United have met 218 times in all competitions. United have 85 wins, Liverpool 72, and 61 games were drawn. And the Merseyside derby stands at 248 meetings, with 102 Liverpool wins, 78 draws and 68 Everton wins.
A record also gives a rough draw rate. Draws make up 26 percent of the Liverpool and City record (53 of 202), 28 percent of the United record (61 of 218) and 31 percent of the Everton record (78 of 248). Those shares come from the totals above. In these fixtures, a draw has been a real outcome for about one game in four, and nearly one in three in the derby.
The numbers answer two plain questions. Who has the better history? Liverpool, clearly, against City and Everton. United, narrowly, against Liverpool. And how likely is a draw? Never close to zero. That is a fair place to start before a big fixture. It is only a start, because a record counts results and says nothing about who played them.
When the long view and the short view disagree
The City record shows the problem. Across 202 meetings, Liverpool led by a wide margin. Within three seasons, though, the record flipped. Liverpool won both league games in 2024-25, each 2-0. City then won four in a row by 12 goals to 1, a run that includes a 4-0 FA Cup tie in April.
Is that a pattern? Four games is a streak. Sean Elvidge, who writes on football statistics, tested “bogey” grounds, where a team seems unable to win away. His clearest case is Fulham at Arsenal: 32 league visits, no wins, seven draws and 25 defeats. He argues that after 20 to 30 visits without a win, fans should accept the bogey ground and stop blaming luck. Four games sit far below that.
A short run still counts for something. It tells you that something happened and you might want to investigate further. Is it a new manager? Is it a team change? Or maybe something else?
Where the record misleads: New managers, new squads
Both clubs changed manager in the summer. Enzo Maresca was appointed City manager on 29 June, succeeding Pep Guardiola after about ten years. Andoni Iraola replaced Arne Slot at Liverpool after leading Bournemouth to sixth place. Three of City’s four straight wins came before either change.
The squad changed too. Liverpool’s summer list includes Mohamed Salah and Ibrahima Konaté released, Andrew Robertson gone to Tottenham on a free transfer, and Bradley Barcola signed from Paris Saint-Germain for £123m.
Some of the record survives, because players stay. Erling Haaland scored the first goal on 11 October and has six goals in his last four appearances against Liverpool. A record tied to one player lasts as long as he does.
The result itself needs context, because 11 October was also the first meeting of the two new managers at these clubs. The game was 0-0 until the 62nd minute, when Ryan Gravenberch was sent off for a second yellow card. City scored all three goals after that.
The United record has the same issue. Its latest entry is a 3-2 United win at Old Trafford on 3 May, decided by a Kobbie Mainoo strike in the 77th minute. It was played before Liverpool changed manager and rebuilt the squad. Liverpool are due to host United on 21 November, and the 3 May game is a weak guide to it.
A four-step check before a big fixture
A record is easy to quote and easy to misread. Four checks can help you predict the next game more accurately:
Split it by date: Separate the meetings before a manager change from the ones after. In the City record, three of the four straight wins came before the summer changes. Only one came under the new managers, and one game is not a trend.
Check who is still here: List the managers and the main players from the last meeting, then see who remains. Haaland is still at City. Salah, Konaté and Robertson have left Liverpool. If few names remain, the record describes another team.
Read the match, not the score: A red card, an injury or a late goal can change a result without changing the balance of the game. So instead of pre-match wagers, you might want to try in-play bets to feel the game better.
Size the streak: In Elvidge’s test of bogey grounds, a run needed 20 to 30 winless visits to look real. A run of four is worth noting and not yet worth trusting.
Then add the base rate. Draws made up 26 to 31 percent of the three records above, so a draw is never a long shot.
Now try it on Liverpool against United on 21 November. The all-time record favors United narrowly. The last meeting, on 3 May, favored United too. Both came before Iraola and the rebuilt squad, and the draw rate sits near 28 percent. The honest reading is that history gives a small lean and little more, until Iraola’s side has played a few more big games.
Last, set the record beside a price. Soccer markets are listed at sportbet.one/sports/soccer. Liverpool are due to host Arsenal on 31 October, so the next test comes soon.
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