Bayern Munich vs Arsenal Prediction: UEFA Champions League Preview
Two of the pre-season UEFA Champions League favourites go head-to-head in Bavaria on Wednesday, and we look ahead to that clash with our data-powered Bayern Munich vs Arsenal prediction and preview.
Bayern Munich vs Arsenal: The Key Stats
The Opta supercomputer makes Bayern Munich favourites on home soil against Arsenal, assigning Vincent Kompany’s men a 46.4% win probability.
Arsenal have lost 53% of their games against Bayern (8/15), only having a worse record against Barcelona (67%, 6/9) among teams they have faced 5+ times.
The Gunners have won each of their last 14 league-phase matches in the UEFA Champions League, though, and they beat Bayern 3-1 last November.
Going into Matchday 3 of the league phase in this season’s UEFA Champions League, Arsenal and Bayern Munich are the Opta supercomputer’s top two favourites to become European champions.
The predictive model gives Arsenal a 20.7% chance of lifting the trophy for the first time, while Bayern have a 15.2% probability of clinching their seventh continental crown.
And with the teams going head-to-head at the Allianz Arena on Wednesday, both will face an early test of their credentials.
Bayern got back to winning ways in convincing fashion in the Bundesliga on Saturday, as a Luis Díaz hat-trick helped them thump RB Leipzig 6-1. The Bavarian giants had a staggering 17 shots on target in that match, their most in any league game since tallying 20 against Borussia Mönchengladbach in August 2022.
Bayern Munich 6-1 RB Leipzig
Bayern Munich 6-1 RB Leipzig
That dominant victory must have been cathartic following a frustrating return from the international break for Vincent Kompany’s side, who had to come from behind twice to draw 2-2 with Augsburg in their previous Bundesliga game, before sharing six goals equally with Norwegian champions Viking on MD2 in the Champions League.
Michael Olise‘s red card was costly in that game, not only because it allowed Viking to play the final 16 minutes with a numerical advantage, scoring a late equaliser, but also because the France superstar will now serve a one-match ban against Arsenal.
Viking 3-3 Bayern - UCL 26-27
Viking 3-3 Bayern - UCL 26-27
Olise will leave big shoes to fill. Since the start of last season, he has created more chances than any other player in the Champions League (44), while also making the joint-most defensive line-breaking passes (43). Only Lamine Yamal (55) has completed more dribbles than the Frenchman (54).
Either Arsenal academy graduate Serge Gnabry or promising youngster Lennart Karl will likely come in on the right flank, and the good news for the hosts is that they still have plenty of firepower in their ranks, even with Olise missing.
This will be Harry Kane‘s penultimate game before he discovers whether he has become the first Englishman to win the Ballon d’Or since Michael Owen in 2001, with the winner of football’s most prestigious individual award announced next week.
And Kane, who marked his 100th Bundesliga appearance with his 102nd goal in the competition on Saturday, has an excellent record against Arsenal.
The former Tottenham hero has scored 15 goals in 22 career appearances against the Gunners, only netting more against Leicester City (20) and Everton (16).
England’s captain will be going up against the Premier League‘s best defensive unit, with Arsenal remaining within three points of Manchester City domestically following Sunday’s hard-earned 1-0 win at Nottingham Forest.
Noni Madueke came off the bench to settle that encounter with a deflected strike, and although there were a few nervy moments late on, Arsenal held on for their 32nd 1-0 win in the Premier League under Mikel Arteta – the joint-most of any team since he took charge in December 2019 (alongside Everton).
The Gunners are one of nine teams to have maximum points on the board in the Champions League, following last week’s 3-0 victory over Lille. Bukayo Saka played a starring role in that success, coming off the bench to provide a goal and assist, and he is primed to play a key part here.
Just four of Saka’s 14 Champions League goals have come away from home, though two of those were against Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain. Only two players have ever scored away against all three of Bayern Munich, Real Madrid and PSG in the competition – Didier Drogba and Erling Haaland.
Given Bayern’s commitment to dominating possession, it remains to be seen just how aggressive Arsenal will be – they attracted criticism for their tentative approach in last season’s final versus PSG, recording the lowest possession share on record by any team in a Champions League showpiece (since 2003-04, 24.7%).
However, 73% of Arsenal’s high-intensity pressures in the Champions League this season have been in the opposition half (373/508), the highest percentage by any team through the first two matchdays.
The Gunners also led all teams for high turnovers (25) and shot-ending high turnovers (9) in the opening two rounds of fixtures, so they certainly have it in them play proactively.
Arsenal have also won each of their last 14 league-stage matches in UEFA’s top-tier competition, with only PSG and Real Madrid (28 each) having won more Champions League games overall than the Gunners since their 2023 return (27, level with Bayern).
Bayern Munich vs Arsenal Head-to-Head
Across Bayern’s last 23 Champions League matches, the only team to beat them by more than one goal was Arsenal, who triumphed 3-1 at the Emirates Stadium last November.
Jurriën Timber, Madueke and the since-departed Gabriel Martinelli were on the scoresheet for the Gunners in that game, with Karl getting Bayern’s only goal.
In that match, Bayern managed just eight shots, 14 touches in the opposition box and an expected goals (xG) total of 0.65 – all three of which remain their worst figures in a Champions League match under Kompany.
Historically, however, Arsenal have struggled in matches between these sides.
Indeed, they have lost 53% of their games against Bayern overall (8/15). Among all teams they have faced at least five times in major European competitions, they have only got a higher loss percentage against Barcelona (67% – 6/9).
And on home soil specifically, Bayern have only lost one of their seven Champions League meetings with Arsenal (W5 D1), winning the last three in a row, two of which were by a 5-1 scoreline, in November 2015 and February 2017.
Bayern Munich vs Arsenal Prediction
Despite Arsenal’s perfect start in Europe this season, it is Bayern who are favoured by the Opta supercomputer.
The hosts are assigned a 46.4% chance of victory on Wednesday, compared to a 29.3% win probability for Arsenal and a 24.3% chance of the points being shared.
Bayern Munich vs Arsenal prediction
Bayern Munich vs Arsenal prediction
Bayern Munich vs Arsenal Predicted Lineups
Bayern Munich: Jonas Urbig, Konrad Laimer, Dayot Upamecano, Jonathan Tah, Alphonso Davies, Joshua Kimmich, Aleksandar Pavlović, Lennart Karl, Ismael Saibari, Luis Díaz, Harry Kane
Head coach: Vincent Kompany
Arsenal: David Raya, Riccardo Calafiori, Gabriel Magalhães, Ezri Konsa, Jurriën Timber, Bruno Guimarães, Declan Rice, Eberechi Eze, Martin Ødegaard, Bukayo Saka, Viktor Gyökeres
Head coach: Mikel Arteta
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 16,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world, and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
UEFA Champions League Opta Stats
UEFA Champions League Opta Stats