Charlotte Hornets v Boston Celtics
Charlotte Hornets v Boston Celtics | Brian Fluharty/GettyImages
This week is the start of the 2026-27 NBA regular season, a year that could be, for what my money is worth, the greatest season in NBA history.
The reason I believe this is that there are so many teams going for it, with the NBA doing everything that it could to eliminate tanking from our beautiful game.
With this much parity in our ranks, it is hard to know what to expect. Fortunately, the good folks at Opta Analyst (another employer of mine) have put together a model that runs hundreds of simulations in order to predict how the upcoming season will play out.
So, in honor of their love letter, let's analyze the results the supercomputer came up with.
Supercomputer prediction for the entire NBA Regular Season
Keep in mind, since this an average of all the simulations, the outputs are in decimal form. You obviously cannot have .2 wins, so keep that in mind as you look at this.
New York Knicks point guard Jalen Brunson
New York Knicks point guard Jalen Brunson | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Eastern Conference
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Team Seed Estimated Wins Estimate Losses
New York Knicks 1 51 31
Boston Celtics 2 49 33
Detroit Pistons 3 48 34
Toronto Raptors 4 46.3 35.7
Miami Heat 5 44.8 37.2
Cleveland Cavaliers 6 44.5 37.5
Atlanta Hawks 7 43.6 38.4
Orlando Magic 8 42.6 39.4
Philalephia 76ers 9 42 40
Charlotte Hornets 10 41.1 40.9
Indiana Pacers 11 35.5 46.5
Chicago Bulls 12 34.4 47.6
Milwaukee Bucks 13 31.9 50.1
Brooklyn Nets 14 29.4 52.6
Washington Wizards 15 27.9 54.1
Oklahoma City Thunder center Aday Mara
Oklahoma City Thunder center Aday Mara | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Western Conference
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Team Seed Estimated Wins Estimated Losses
Oklahoma City Thunder 1 56.2 25.8
San Antonio Spurs 2 53.3 28.7
Houston Rockets 3 49.8 32.2
Denver Nuggets 4 46.8 35.2
Portland Trail Blazers 5 43 39
Golden State Warriors 6 42.9 39.1
Minnesota Timberwolves 7 42.3 39.7
Los Angeles Lakers 8 41.5 40.5
Phoenix Suns 9 40.9 41.1
Los Angeles Clippers 10 37.7 44.3
New Orleans Pelicans 11 34.5 47.5
Dallas Mavericks 12 34 48
Memphis Grizzlies 13 33.7 48.3
Utah Jazz 14 32.2 49.8
Sacramento Kings 15 29 53
Final Eastern Conference Playoff Picture, per supercomputer
Obviously, the NBA has their play-in tournament, where the 7-10 seeds duke it out to see who will get the final two playoff spots in their conference. But for the sake of simplicity, we are just going to assume that the seven and eight seeds end up making it out of the single-game elimination tournament.
(1) New York Knicks vs. (8) Orlando Magic
(2) Boston Celtics vs. (7) Atlanta Hawks
(3) Detroit Pistons vs. (6) Cleveland Cavaliers
(4) Toronto Raptors vs. (5) Miami Heat
The two biggest omissions from this list are the Philadelphia 76ers and Indiana Pacers. I thought I was much lower than consensus on the 76ers this season, but even I expect them to be in the playoffs. Not only does the supercomputer think the Pacers are missing the playoffs, but it also doesn't think they will qualify for the play-in tournament, as it projects them for the 11th-seed in the Eastern Conference.
Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Final Western Conference Playoff Picture, per supercomputer
Now, let's take a look at the projected first round matchups for the Western Conference, assuming that the seventh and eighth seeds take care of business in the play-in tournament.
(1) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (8) Los Angeles Lakers
(2) San Antonio Spurs vs. (7) Minnesota Timberwolves
(3) Houston Rockets vs. (6) Golden State Warriors
(4) Denver Nuggets vs. (5) Portland Trail Blazers
Here, we have two rematches from last year's Western Conference semifinals in the Oklahoma City Thunder/Los Angeles Lakers and San Antonio Spurs/Minnesota Timberwolves matchups. Interestingly enough, the supercomputer thinks that the Golden State Warriors and Portland Trail Blazers will both be better than the Lakers and Timberwolves. The biggest surprise here is that the supercomputer thinks that the Utah Jazz are still a Western Conference bottom-feeder, despite all that they have done over the last year to get out of this rebuild phase.
San Antonio Spurs forward Victor Wembanyama
San Antonio Spurs forward Victor Wembanyama | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
The top 5 title contenders of the 2026-27 NBA season, per supercomputer
Along with win projections, the model also includes each team's chances of making the playoffs, conference semifinals, conference finals, and NBA Finals. It also has each team's current odds at winning the NBA Finals. Here are the top five teams according to the supercomputer.
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Team Chances of Winning the NBA Finals
Oklahoma City Thunder 18.7%
San Antonio Spurs 12.0%
New York Knicks 10.4%
Houston Rockets 8.4%
Boston Celtics 7.3%
It comes as no suprise that the Thunder and Spurs (the Western Conference juggernauts), along with the defending-champion New York Knicks, are at the top of the leaderboard. The real eyebrow raisers here are the Houston Rockets and Boston Celtics. The Rockets were a first round exit last season, but are now getting back Fred VanVleet and Steven Adams. Meanwhile, the Celtics are ready to start a new chapter after trading Jaylen Brown for Paul George (and draft capital) this offseason.