Jayson Tatum's Path to NBA MVP: Three Reasons Why Celtics Star Can Win 2026-27 Award image
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Jayson Tatum's comeback from an Achilles injury late in the 2025-26 season put the Celtics star in position to complete a redemption arc. Tatum would have enough time to ramp up his conditioning before the playoffs and lead another deep run for a Boston team that had exceeded expectations without him.
Of course, the storybook ending never came. The Celtics blew a 3-1 lead against the 76ers in the first round of the playoffs, and Tatum missed Game 7 because of a knee injury.
Then, Boston stunned the basketball world by breaking up the dynamic duo of Tatum and Jaylen Brown during the offseason, sending Brown to Philadelphia in exchange for Paul George and multiple draft picks. Tatum will now play without Brown, the 2024 NBA Finals MVP, for the first time in his career.
There will be plenty of questions about Tatum's ability to rediscover his All-NBA form, but perhaps the 28-year-old's new challenge should be viewed as an opportunity. The 2026-27 campaign may give Tatum a chance to not only compete for a championship, but also the league's top individual award.
Jayson Tatum's path to NBA MVP
Jayson Tatum is the Celtics' unquestioned No. 1 option
The Celtics sent a clear message following the Brown trade: Two massive salaries would create cap issues, and they valued "optionality." They viewed Tatum as the present and future face of the franchise, so Brown was shipped out.
While there were often debates about whether Tatum or Brown was the true leader in Boston, George has quickly shut down any speculation about Tatum's status.
"I'm here to help JT. He's the guy," George said at his introductory press conference. "I've played alongside another superstar wing, and we coexisted beautifully. So, I see that with myself. I see that with JT, being able to play off him, being able to help him, being able to kind of still be a mentor. I can play off another superstar wing and still be a presence."
From 2021-25, Tatum averaged 27.7 points, 8.4 rebounds and 5.0 assists, earning a spot on the All-NBA First Team in four straight seasons. He finished in the top six in NBA MVP voting in each of those seasons, but he never truly felt like a legitimate contender.
His individual stats may feel more impactful because the Tatum vs. Brown conversations have been eliminated.
The Celtics should remain one of the best teams in the NBA
The Sporting News' Stephen Noh projected the Celtics to finish with a 54-28 record. The Athletic's Jay King offered a prediction of 57-25, and ESPN wasn't far behind at 51 wins. If Boston is able to reach the 50-win mark, that would give Tatum's MVP case a significant boost.
The Celtics should have a shot at the No. 1 seed, as the conference's most talented teams will face big questions.
The Knicks are the defending champs, but the Celtics took Mitchell Robinson away from them. Additionally, New York shut down contract discussions with Karl-Anthony Towns and Josh Hart, potentially creating issues down the road.
The Pistons must prove that their leap was the real thing, not a one-year blip. The 76ers revamped their roster, but developing chemistry isn't an easy process. It's unclear if the Heat have the right role players around Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo.
While Boston did make major changes over the summer, the team is still designed to churn out wins under head coach Joe Mazzulla. (Remember, it's a regular-season award.)
There could be flaws in the MVP cases for other candidates
The biggest argument against Tatum is the fact that he simply isn't on the same level as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Nikola Jokic and Victor Wembanyama. It's certainly possible that those are the top three MVP vote-getters in some order.
However, it's important to note that a player must appear in at least 65 games in order to be eligible for the MVP award. Gilgeous-Alexander, Jokic and Wembanyama each dealt with injuries last season, nearly failing to reach the eligibility requirement. (Wembanyama only played in 64 regular-season games, but his appearance in the NBA Cup final counted toward his total.)
While Wembanyama is looking to capture his first MVP trophy, Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokic have both won the award multiple times. If they have to choose between addressing a nagging health problem or meeting the 65-game threshold, their teams will likely tell them to rest.
And even if Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokic are eligible, they may not be able to deliver a compelling narrative. As much as everyone would like to pretend voter fatigue doesn't exist, it can be a factor in these debates.
If nothing else, Tatum and the Celtics should provide an interesting story.
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