Over the past few weeks leading up to Tuesday’s opening day, we’ve been examining projections for all 30 NBA teams for the 2026/27 season, seeking your input on how many games each club will win. With the help of lines from professional oddsmakers, we’ve had you vote on whether each team will go over or under a given win total, from the Thunder (62.5) all the way through to the Kings (20.5).
Here are the full results of those votes:
Eastern Conference
Atlantic
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New York Knicks** (52.5 wins): Over (54.8%)
Boston Celtics (51.5 wins): Under (59.1%)
Philadelphia 76ers (50.5 wins): Over (65.6%)
Toronto Raptors (46.5 wins): Over (63.8%)
Brooklyn Nets (24.5 wins): Over (59.8%)
Central
Detroit Pistons (49.5 wins): Over (69.2%)
Cleveland Cavaliers (48.5 wins): Over (66.5%)
Indiana Pacers (44.5 wins): Over (57.5%)
Chicago Bulls (29.5 wins): Over (54.3%)
Milwaukee Bucks (25.5 wins): Under (52.0%)
Southeast
Miami Heat (46.5 wins): Over (66.0%)
Orlando Magic (44.5 wins): Under (55.7%)
Atlanta Hawks (44.5 wins): Over (56.4%)
Charlotte Hornets (38.5 wins): Under (59.6%)
Washington Wizards (34.5 wins): Over (58.9%)
Western Conference
Northwest
Oklahoma City Thunder (62.5 wins): Under (68.3%)
Denver Nuggets (49.5 wins): Over (57.6%)
Minnesota Timberwolves (48.5 wins): Over (71.4%)
Portland Trail Blazers (41.5 wins): Under (52.5%)
Utah Jazz (38.5 wins): Under (56.2%)
Pacific
Los Angeles Lakers (46.5 wins): Over (61.7%)
Phoenix Suns (40.5 wins): Over (50.9%)
Golden State Warriors (39.5 wins): Under (56.6%)
Los Angeles Clippers (30.5 wins): Under (63.8%)
Sacramento Kings (20.5 wins): Over (58.5%)
Southwest
San Antonio Spurs (60.5 wins): Over (54.1%)
Houston Rockets (48.5 wins): Over (71.5%)
Dallas Mavericks (34.5 wins): Over (63.0%)
Memphis Grizzlies (29.5 wins): Under (62.4%)
New Orleans Pelicans (28.5 wins): Under (59.1%)
It’s pretty common for our poll respondents to pick more overs than unders, with optimism high in most NBA cities following an offseason of change. That was the case again this year, as our readers went over on 19 teams and under on just 11.
These were the five “over” bets that received the largest vote shares:
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Houston Rockets** (48.5 wins): 71.5%
2. Minnesota Timberwolves (48.5 wins): 71.4%
3. Detroit Pistons (49.5 wins): 69.2%
4. Cleveland Cavaliers (48.5 wins): 66.5%
5. Miami Heat (46.5 wins): 66.0%
Curiously, all of these teams are essentially in the same tier of contenders, with their projections separated by a total of just three wins.
Maybe that’s just a coincidence. But with the exception of the Heat, each of those clubs won more games last season than they’re projected to this year. Houston and Cleveland won 52 games apiece, Minnesota got 49 victories, and Detroit racked up a whopping 60 wins. Our poll respondents clearly don’t expect these teams to take a significant step back in 2026/27.
A word of caution, however. While showing up in this group of five isn’t necessarily a kiss of death, it’s also far from a guarantee of success. Last season, the five clubs who received the most “over” votes in our polls were the Nuggets, Bucks, Mavericks, Warriors, and Knicks.
Only one of those teams actually made good on that over, and that one team (Denver) beat its projection by just a half-game. Three of the others – Milwaukee, Dallas, and Golden State – were among the biggest underachievers of the season relative to preseason expectations, while the fifth – New York – fell a half-game shy of its projected 53.5 wins.
Here are the five “under” bets that received the largest vote shares:
Oklahoma City Thunder (62.5 wins): 68.3%
Los Angeles Clippers (30.5 wins): 63.8%
Memphis Grizzlies (29.5 wins): 62.4%
Charlotte Hornets (38.5 wins): 59.6%
Boston Celtics (51.5 wins): 59.1%
As good as the Thunder are, I understand the logic behind betting against a 63-win season. They sacrificed some depth in the offseason by trading away starting wing Luguentz Dort and rotation reserves Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins, and the NBA’s anti-tanking rules will likely result in fewer easy wins during the second half of the season.
In theory, the new lottery format will discourage potential non-playoff teams like the Clippers and Grizzlies from tanking, but I’m not sure what to expect from a new-look L.A. team that won’t have control of its own first-round pick in 2027. If the Clippers struggle out of the gate, they won’t have the same incentive to push to avoid a bottom-three record like some other lottery-bound clubs would, which could make the under a strong choice.
As for the Hornets and Celtics, our poll respondents are clearly expecting those clubs to struggle to replicate last season’s success after trading away stars LaMelo Ball and Jaylen Brown, respectively.
Here are the five picks that were closest to 50/50:
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Phoenix Suns** (40.5 wins): Over (50.9%)
2. Milwaukee Bucks (25.5 wins): Under (52.0%)
3. Portland Trail Blazers (41.5 wins): Under (52.5%)
4. San Antonio Spurs (60.5 wins): Over (54.1%)
5. Chicago Bulls (29.5 wins): Over (54.3%)
The Suns exceeded expectations last season by winning 45 games and they didn’t really get worse this offseason, swapping out Grayson Allen and Royce O’Neale for Luke Kennard and Miles Bridges. Still, many voters are counting on them to regress a little.
It’s hard to know exactly what to expect from revamped Bucks and Bulls rosters that look a whole lot different than they did at this time last year. The Trail Blazers are also a difficult team to pin down — will a backcourt that features Damian Lillard, Ja Morant, Jrue Holiday, and Scoot Henderson help lead the team back to the playoffs or will that group have a hard time meshing?
Finally, the Spurs are in the same boat as the Thunder. They’re clearly one of the league’s best teams, but with so few teams expected to tank this season, it might be difficult for any clubs to win more than 60 games. San Antonio’s success also hinges heavily on the health of Victor Wembanyama, who has missed double-digit games in each of his first three NBA seasons.
What do you think of our picks in general? Are there any results above that you strongly disagree with? Did you make any over or under votes within the last couple weeks that you’re second-guessing now? Jump into our comment section below and weigh in with your thoughts!