Welcome back to Thursday Night Football.
The Patriots have hit the road for their first of two Thursday night games this season, with another short-week kickoff scheduled versus the Vikings in December. In the meantime, they’re back in Chicago, where Mike Vrabel and Drake Maye will face another team that made a surprise playoff run last season behind a new coach and second-year quarterback. How good are these Bears?
At 4-2, with quarterback Caleb Williams back from a hamstring injury, they’re good enough to be field goal favorites. Last week, Chicago jumped out to a 24-point lead against the Falcons before holding on for a 31-23 road win. Head coach Ben Johnson is considered one of the foremost masterminds in offensive football, and the Bears lead the league in total rush yards.
To pull off an upset, the Pats must match wits with Johnson, stand up to a strong Chicago offensive line and help Maye re-establish his chemistry with A.J. Brown. Will they do it?
Here’s what to watch for in the Windy City:
#### When Patriots run
Last seen Sunday, the Patriots’ offense handed the ball off nine straight times to all but seal a win against the Jets.
Little-known Corey Kiner was the star of that fourth quarter, taking eight straight carries on a possession that drained several minutes off the clock. Kiner, the Pats’ No. 3 back, runs hard and decisively. Vrabel explained the team’s reason for featuring him on that drive as riding the hot hand, but Rhamondre Stevenson should still be expected to lead the Patriots in carries Thursday.
What about TreVeyon Henderson? His fumble last Sunday added to what’s been a disappointing season so far. Henderson is averaging fewer yards per carry (4.0) than Kiner (4.5), and fewer yards after contact. Lucky for them, the Bears own one of the league’s worst run defenses by DVOA and its lowest-ranked by Pro Football Focus, which also grades them as the worst tackling defense in football.
More than most games, the Patriots should be able to gain extra yards if they stick with a ground and pound approach, no matter how banged up their offensive line is.
#### When Patriots pass
Will the real A.J. Brown please stand up?
Brown’s three drops last weekend were more than he had the past two seasons combined. The Patriots tried to feed him early and often versus the Jets, but couldn’t. They aren’t expecting more drops in Chicago, where the Bears play a higher rate of man-to-man coverage than most defenses and have proven susceptible against the deep pass. Both tendencies should mean Maye and Brown will have multiple chances to connect for big plays, provided Maye is protected long enough to get the ball deep.
Up front, the Pats will start third-stringer Walter Rouse and Matt Pryor at left and right guard, respectively. Rouse is a converted tackle, and Pryor joined the team less than one month ago. They finished last Sunday’s game, but either or both may have a short leash if they struggle early. The Pats re-signed backup guards Andrew Rupcich and Jacob Rizy, whom they worked with in training camp, earlier this week.
“We’re going to go with where we finished on Sunday and see what that looks like,” Vrabel said, “and then have everybody else ready to go.”
Final note: more man coverage should mean extra targets for DeMario Douglas, who broke out for seven catches, 86 yards and one touchdown last weekend. Maye has targeted him multiple times versus man-to-man in recent weeks, including in high-leverage situations.
New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye rolls out during the first half of an NFL game against the Chicago Bears on Sunday, Nov. 10, 2024, in Chicago. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)
#### When Bears run
Ex-Bears safety and current Patriots captain Kevin Byard left no doubt this week.
The Bears want to run the ball.
“It’s like this is going to be one of those drop-the-gloves games in hockey. You know what I mean?” Byard said this week. “Let’s drop the gloves. Let’s go out here and let’s fight.”
Under Johnson, Chicago operates one of the most multiple run schemes in the league, getting the ball in the hands of several playmakers via different formations, motions and concepts. But beneath all the bells and whistles is a steadfast commitment to winning physically, where the Bears’ offensive line is asked to beat up opponents for four quarters. The Patriots struggled to stop the Jets with nickel personnel (five defensive backs), but are even worse statistically with base defense (four defensive backs) this season, ranking 19th in the NFL by defensive success rate from this grouping.
Whoever wins this matchup in the trenches should win the game. Bears running back D’Andre Swift leads Chicago with 398 rushing yards and six touchdowns, and his top backup, Kyle Monangai, has been ruled out.
“Their offensive line is really good,” Byard said. “They’re going to run behind (right tackle) Darnell Wright. That’s what they believe in. So, they want to be the most physical team. I feel like we believe that, as well. So that’s what, truth be told, the game will come down to who’s the most physical team on Thursday night?”
#### When Bears pass
In his return from a three-game absence with a hurt hamstring last week, Williams showed exactly no rust.
Williams went 30-of-36 for 305 yards and one touchdown during a win at Atlanta, where he leaned heavily on leading receiver Luther Burden and tight end Colston Loveland. Both players could be matchup problem for the Pats, who are likely to play more zone coverage against all of Chicago’s pre-snap shifts and motions. Zone will also help keep eyes on Williams, who’s rushed for more than 100 yards this season, primarily as a scrambler.
Ultimately, the Patriots need their best pass rushers, Milton Williams, Christian Barmore and Elijah Ponder, to continue producing as they did versus the Jets. All three players registered a sack, while outside linebackers Dre’Mont Jones and Gabe Jacas recorded multiple pressures. Byard called Williams arguably the most difficult quarterback to bring down, given how elusive and nimble he is, but there will be opportunities. Williams is taking an average of three sacks so far this season.
In the back end, the Patriots will still be without cornerback Carlton Davis (neck), meaning Charles Woods and Marcus Jones will split the outside corner snaps opposite Christian Gonzalez for yet another week.
#### Game prediction
Bears 27, Patriots 23