We look ahead to Saturday’s early Premier League kick-off at Villa Park with our Aston Villa vs Man City prediction and preview.
Aston Villa vs Man City: The Key Stats
Man City are regarded as favourites by the Opta supercomputer, beating Aston Villa in 43% of the 10,000 pre-game simulations.
Having failed to win any of their first four Premier League games this season (D1 L3), Aston Villa have now won two of their last three (D1). However, the Villans are winless in all three home games so far (D1 L2), last having a longer run at the start of a campaign in 2015-16 (9).
Man City could become the eighth side to win each of their first eight games of an English top-flight season.
Manchester City are aiming to become just the eighth team in English top-flight history to start a league campaign with eight consecutive wins, but face a stern test against a resurgent Aston Villa side.
Chelsea, who won their first nine games in 2005-06, and Liverpool, who won their first eight games in 2019-20, are the only teams to better City’s start to the current campaign under Enzo Maresca. Both teams went on to lift the title in their respective seasons.
But – separate to all of the goings-on off the field – City are still not regarded as favourites to win the Premier League this season by the Opta supercomputer. Arsenal lead the way with a 47.7% chance of going back-to-back, with City close behind at 39.9% at the time of writing.
While the points have been rolling in, even the clubs’ own fans would admit the performances haven’t been quite as assured as the league table suggests.
According to Opta’s expected points table, City are currently the Premier League’s biggest overperformers, with nearly eight points more (21) than expected (13.2) based on the quality of chances for and against in their games.
Premier League Expected Points 22 October 2026
Premier League Expected Points 22 October 2026
One-sided defeats against Arsenal in the Community Shield and Paris Saint-Germain in the UEFA Champions League may be more representative of the club’s genuine current level compared to best-in-class opposition.
Could this season bear some similarity to the 2016-17 campaign, when City opened with six straight wins under new manager Pep Guardiola, before ultimately finishing in third place?
Maresca will aim to prove otherwise, but a trip to Villa Park to face an in-form Aston Villa team is represents of his toughest tasks so far as City boss. Villa are better, and have much more quality, than their current position of 12th suggests.
After winning just one of their first five games in all competitions this season as Unai Emery’s dressing room came to grips with losing a handful of their best players, Villa have recovered with five wins from their next six.
Central to their improved performance levels have been summer imports Nicolas Jackson and Johan Manzambi, who have scored eight goals combined in all competitions since the second week of September.
Alas, Manzambi – who has scored or assisted in all three of the games he has started in the Premier League – missed the club’s midweek UEFA Champions League victory against Viking through injury and is considered a doubt for the visit of City.
Should he be deemed fit enough to start, he could become the first Aston Villa player to register a goal or assist in each of their first Premier League starts.
Manzambi is one of a number of injury concerns for Emery. Villa are currently struggling to field a left-back; Aaron Wan-Bissaka and Matteo Ruggeri are both out, while Ian Maatsen may not be fit enough to start.
City aren’t without injury concerns of their own. Erling Haaland hobbled off the pitch against Ipswich last week and was an unused substitute against AEK Athens in midweek. A hat-trick from Phil Foden meant City coped just fine without their leading man, but their ability to do so against Premier League opposition is another question.
As well as having the most goals (8), Haaland has had the most shots (27) and shots on target (13) of any player in the Premier League this season, while he ranks second for big chances (12) and touches in the opposition box (40).
Erling Haaland Goals First 7 MDs of 2026-27
Erling Haaland Goals First 7 MDs of 2026-27
Haaland’s potential absence may be the biggest threat to City’s 100% winning start.
Aston Villa vs Man City Head-to-Head
Aston Villa have won four of their last six Premier League games against Manchester City, as many as in their previous 35 against them (D5 L26).
Man City have lost their last two league games against Aston Villa, last losing three in a row to them between August 1962 and September 1966.
Aston Villa vs Man City Prediction
Man City made it eight wins from eight games in 43.0% of simulations. The next-most common result was a home victory for Villa, at 31.6%, while the game was drawn in 25.3% of sims.
Man City are regarded as favourites by the Opta supercomputer, beating Aston Villa in 43% of the 10,000 simulations.
Man City are regarded as favourites by the Opta supercomputer, beating Aston Villa in 43% of the 10,000 simulations.
Aston Villa vs Man City Predicted Lineups
Aston Villa: Zion Suzuki, Matty Cash, Victor Lindelöf, Pau Torres, Ian Maatsen, Boubacar Kamara, João Gomes, John McGinn, Emiliano Buendía, Ibrahim Mbaye, Nicolas Jackson.
Manchester City: Gianluigi Donnarumma, Rico Lewis, Rúben Dias, Marc Guéhi, Josko Gvardiol, Ayyoub Bouaddi, Enzo Fernández, Iliman Ndiaye, Rayan Cherki, Jérémy Doku, Erling Haaland.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 16,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world, and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Premier League Opta Stats
Premier League Opta Stats