Tottenham vs Arsenal Prediction: WSL North London Derby Preview
We look ahead to the first WSL north London derby of the 2026-27 season with our Tottenham vs Arsenal prediction and preview.
Tottenham vs Arsenal: The Key Stats****
Despite Arsenal’s difficult start to the season, the Opta supercomputer makes the Gunners slight favourites to secure three points in Saturday’s derby, winning 56.6% of its 10,000 simulations.
Tottenham have lost only two of their last five WSL home games against Arsenal (W1 D1), drawing 0-0 in this fixture last season.
Arsenal have won 10 of their 13 north London derbies in the WSL (D2 L1), scoring five goals in their last two wins: 5-0 in February 2025, 5-2 in March 2026.
The season could hardly be going worse for Renée Slegers and her Arsenal side as they travel to Tottenham with their hopes of salvaging a disastrous start to the Women’s Super League campaign hanging in the balance.
For the first time in league history, Spurs will begin a north London derby above Arsenal in the league table, though both sides will both be looking to arrest their recent form.
Arsenal are on the brink of making more unwanted history, without a win in five WSL matches for the first time (D3 L2) and have drawn more English top-flight games than any other side since the start of last season (9).
They have also never failed to win at least two of their opening seven matches of a WSL campaign, a record now under serious threat.
Having started the campaign so promisingly, unbeaten in their first four matches (W3 D1), Martin Ho will also be desperate for a response from his side after two bruising league outings at London City and Chelsea. In doing so, Spurs became just the second team in WSL history to concede six or more goals in consecutive matches, following Doncaster Rovers Belles in 2013.
While those recent results have exposed some worrying defensive vulnerabilities, scoring goals has certainly not been Tottenham’s problem. Only Manchester City (19) have scored more WSL goals than Spurs (18) this season, but only Charlton (18) have conceded more than their 14.
Tottenham xG WSL
Tottenham xG WSL
It is an extraordinary contrast. Before this season, no team in WSL history had scored at least 15 goals while conceding 10 or more in their opening six matches.
At the heart of Spurs attacking masterclasses has been captain Drew Spence (215 currently), who could equal Millie Bright (216) for the most appearances made in WSL history.
The contrast with Arsenal could hardly be greater.
While Tottenham have been scoring freely despite their defensive struggles, the Gunners have been remarkably toothless in front of goal, with their inability to turn chances into goals becoming one of the defining problems of their season.
Despite attempting the third-most shots in the WSL this season (121), Arsenal have the worst shot conversion rate in the competition (4.1%), alongside the third-worst shooting accuracy (30.6%) and third-lowest average expected goals (xG) per shot (0.09).
It represents a dramatic decline for a side that ranked among the top two in the WSL for shot conversion in each of the previous two campaigns.
Perhaps nowhere is that struggle more evident than with Alessia Russo.
Last season’s golden boot runner-up has found goals hard to come by with just one to her name across six matchdays, and her frustrating afternoon against Birmingham City summed up Arsenal’s attacking difficulties. Russo managed just two attempts, neither of which tested the goalkeeper. Remarkably, she has already gone three WSL matches without registering a shot on target this season, having done so only four times across the whole of 2025-26.
Nonetheless, her record against their rivals offers promise; she has scored more league goals against Tottenham (eight) than any other side, and never has she failed to score at least two goals across her first seven top-flight outings of a campaign.
Furthemore, Slegers is unbeaten in all 17 of her WSL games against English managers
(W11 D6), with only Sonia Bompastor (18) facing English coaches more
often without losing in the competition.
Saturday could also bring an unwanted milestone, with the Dutchwoman at risk of going five matches without a win as Arsenal manager in all competitions for the first time.
Their inability to find a breakthrough is reflected in how their matches have unfolded; the Gunners have spent 61% of their playing time with the scores level, more than any other WSL side this season.
Even more remarkably, when matches are tied, Arsenal boast the best shot difference per 90 minutes in the competition (+15), yet still have a negative goal difference per 90 (-0.25).
Tottenham vs Arsenal Head-to-Head
History may favour Arsenal heading into Saturday’s North London derby, but Spurs will take encouragement from their recent record against the Gunners on home soil.
Arsenal have dominated this fixture over time, winning 10 of the 13 such matches played in the WSL (D2 L1), while scoring five goals in each of their last two victories over Ho’s side, winning 5-0 in February 2025 and 5-2 in March 2026..
Arsenal vs Tottenham xG March 2026
Arsenal vs Tottenham xG March 2026
However, Tottenham have made life increasingly difficult for their neighbours at home, losing just two of their last five WSL meetings with Arsenal on their own turf (W1 D2 L2), including a goalless draw in this fixture last season.
Tottenham vs Arsenal Prediction
Despite Arsenal’s alarming start to the season, the Opta supercomputer still makes the Gunners favourites to claim all three points in Saturday’s derby.
Arsenal win 56.6% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations, compared with 21.6% for Tottenham, while a draw occurs in 21.8% of times.
However, with Spurs among the WSL’s leading scorers and Arsenal struggling to convert their chances, Saturday’s derby could prove far less straightforward than the probabilities suggest.
Tottenham vs Arsenal WSL prediction
Tottenham vs Arsenal WSL prediction
Tottenham vs Arsenal Predicted Lineups
Tottenham: Lize Kop, Julie Blakstad, Toko Koga, Amanda Nildén,Caitlin Dijkstra, Drew Spence, Signe Gaupset, Olivia Holdt, Victoria Pelova, Matilda Vinberg, Cathinka Tandberg.
Arsenal: Misa Rodríguez, Ona Batlle, Lotte Wubben-Moy, Leah Williamson, SMilla Holmberg, Kyra Cooney-Cross, Georgia Stanway, Olivia Smith, Alessia Russo, Lisa Baum, Stina Blackstenius
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 2,500 domestic women’s football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world, and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of Sunday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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