Expectations for Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning at the beginning of the college football season were extremely high. Before Texas’s 2026 season kicked off, Manning was linked to the Heisman Trophy and the No. 1 pick in the 2027 NFL Draft. But game by game, the college football community has become more and more unimpressed.
Manning is in his fourth year with Texas and second as the starter, but he has not fully adjusted to his role, and media and onlookers are worried. The Longhorns have made several expensive adjustments to build around the budding star but aren’t reaping the benefits yet.
He remains at the center of college football media despite being called an “average QB” on multiple occasions and hasn’t shown much on the field in his defense. Manning has taken accountability for his play recently and acknowledged that he has to be better.
“I haven’t put good film on tape the past five weeks, and I’m going to be better,” Manning told reporters earlier this week, [via Antonio Morales of _The Athletic_](https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7712574/2026/10/22/arch-manning-texas-football-analysis/). “I’m going to be better for my teammates. I’m going to be better for myself, and I’m going to be better for my coaches.”
For some, it seems their minds are made up, and they’ve seen everything needed to discredit Manning.
“I don’t even know,” said an SEC staffer who has seen the Longhorns in person this season. “He just seems like a very, very average QB. What does he do that’s elite? What does he do that will win you a game? What has he ever done to make you believe that?”
In terms of Manning’s draft stock, compared to the start of the season, you can only assume that it has taken a major hit. Draft analysts have struggled to understand some of his on-field “decision-making.”
“The decision-making hasn’t progressed the way you would expect for a quarterback in his fourth year with the program,” said Dane Brugler, _The Athletic_‘s NFL Draft analyst. “When you watch Arch on tape this year, there are times where it’s ‘Why are you turning that down? Or why are you forcing it?’ The decision-making hasn’t been where it needs to be, where it should be.”
With the 2026 season in full swing and a packed schedule for the Longhorns in the coming weeks, Manning has only so much time to turn it around. Brugler hasn’t completely given up hope on the quarterback, but he has doubts about whether Manning would even be a top-10 pick if he enters the draft.
“There’s a big TBD by his name,” Brugler added. “Every game, it feels like he does something like, ‘Oh yeah, there it is.’ If you watch him play, clearly this is a talented guy, but that doesn’t mean he’s playing up to being a top-five draft pick right now. But that doesn’t mean you shut the door at all either.
“Quarterbacks, if they have the mental toughness to overcome the mistakes, they can get better. It’s just a matter of, can Arch get there? It’s too early to say for sure if he can or if he can’t, but at this point it’s hard to have conviction that this is going to be a top-10 pick.
“Now, if he plays much better down the stretch, OK, maybe you re-evaluate based on updated evidence, but right now, where we are in mid-October, he has not played up to expectations, and I don’t think anybody would argue with that.”