NBA coverage outlets have spent the last few months getting you ready for the season, focusing on additions, rotations, and who needs to step up. A majority of the attention focuses on the players, as it should. Here at Bright Side of the Sun, we like to take it to the next level. To that end, this article examines a tool for analyzing referee effects that can provide you, the viewer, a new dimension of understanding ahead of a game.
Per the NBA, official crew assignments are made around 9 am Eastern Time the day of the game. There are three roles, including a crew chief. Assignments are shown at this link:
nbastuffer.com tracks statistics about the crew members and by season, including those in process while it’s ongoing. Note, they show playoff statistics first, and sample sizes are small there, so I suggest viewing the regular season figures further down the page.
Among the more interesting are:
* total points per game (an indicator of pace allowed)
* total called fouls per game (level of quick whistle and foul-baiting allowance)
* the mix of fouls called against the road versus home teams (bias toward or against home teams/fans)
Let’s say it’s the day of a Suns home game, and the crew is announced as Zach Zarba, Simone Jelks, and Ray Acosta. Collectively, these three call 51.4% of the fouls on the home team and 48.6% on the road team. That’s 2.8% MORE on the _home_ team! A typical crew calls 1% more on the road team. Netting this out, that crew of three above would call almost 4% more fouls on the Suns than a typical game. That’s three more calls than typical and could make a difference when many games are close.
While the crew above averaged 39.5 fouls per game (a typical level), looking at this also gives you an idea if it’s likely to be one of those nights when foul trouble is more likely. This could be of interest, particularly if one of our two primary centers is out. Is it a night when coaches and players need to be mindful of overaggressive defense if foul totals will likely be up?
Suns fans always knew it was likely to be a problematic night if Scott Foster was refereeing a game when we had Chris Paul. Typically, we have no idea. Hopefully, this equips you with a way to get that viewing (or wagering) edge.