The Philadelphia 76ers came from 29 points down to beat the Cleveland Cavaliers on Thursday.
The Celtics couldn’t hold a 22-point second-half lead in their season opener against Detroit on Tuesday.
New York overcame double-digit deficits in all four of its NBA Finals wins over San Antonio back in June, including a record-setting 29-point comeback in Game 4.
What factors lead to epic collapses like these? Celtics head coach Joe Mazzulla revealed Friday that his analytics team conducted a study on that this offseason.
Mazzulla wouldn’t share its findings — which didn’t help Boston in its [121-113 loss to the Pistons](https://www.bostonherald.com/2026/10/20/despite-paul-georges-dazzling-debut-celtics-collapse-in-season-opening-loss-to-pistons/) — but said the exercise “provided us with some great insight and perspective on things that you can try to combat.” He spoke at length on the topic ahead of Friday’s Celtics-Knicks game at TD Garden.
“I mean, (why do teams blow leads) is a very loaded, complex question. I don’t think that has one answer to that,” Mazzulla said. “We actually relied on our analytics staff; they did a great study for us, a breakdown of that over the course of the league (in) the last 10 years, and they gave us a ton of great information and insight. And it’s funny because I asked the same question watching the Spurs-Knicks game in the Finals, where you take a team who’s up 29 in the first half, and they have a chance to go after something that (is) their dream and their goals, and they can’t hang on to it.
“And it’s not because they didn’t want to. It’s not an effort thing. I think there’s a ton of data that goes into it. I think there’s a ton of a particular, you know, mental training that you have to have for that. I think when people look at leads, they automatically think you are the sole reason why a team is up big, when in reality the other team is just as much a culprit of why they’re down 22 as to why you’re up 22. So I think it’s a dual relationship to a lead, and so you know you have to be able to mentally work through those things at the same time.
“At the same time, our analytics team provided us with some great insight and perspective on things that you can try to combat in those moments. I also think there’s a natural tendency to say you’re up 20, let’s get to 30. I don’t think that’s realistic, and I don’t think that’s possible. I think you have to work on winning the transition of it. If you’re up 20, analytically, it’s really only a 15-point lead. So you have to know that. You’re really only up 15; you’re not up 20 because of the variance of the game. You have to play with the expectation that it’s probably going to get down to six or seven, and then how can you be great at getting it back to 10? I think it’s just a mindset of like, ‘Oh my god, we’re up 20, we have to get it up to 30.’
“No. It’s a game. The other team has great players. There’s a variance aspect to it. There’s a mental aspect to it. Can you be great at the transitions in momentum as opposed to just thinking that you have to ‘put them away.’ Like, can you be the master of momentum? Can you be the master of the turning points? Can you be the master of, it’s going to get back to 12; when it’s there, can you do what we’ve got to do to get it back to 15, right?
“I think we had some good moments at the end of (Tuesday’s) game. Because it was 22, then it was three, then it was six, then it was 12, then it was seven, then it was three, then we lost. So the winning comes in that space of 22 to treat it as six to 12 to seven to four. Can we win those spaces and not focus on ‘keeping the lead,’ if that makes sense? I think that’s a reactive approach as opposed to a relatively aggressive approach.”
The Celtics were 38-0 last season in games they led by 20-plus, but protecting leads was an issue for them in each of the last two postseasons. They couldn’t hold a 15-point edge in Game 5 against the 76ers this past spring and blew leads of 20, 20 and 14 points in the 2025 Eastern Conference semifinals against the Knicks.
On Tuesday, Boston led 81-69 with 4:20 remaining in the third quarter and 96-84 early in the fourth before [surrendering a 23-0 Pistons run](https://www.bostonherald.com/2026/10/21/what-we-saw-from-every-celtics-player-in-season-opening-loss-to-pistons/).
“It’s human nature to be like, ‘They’re up 25. They’re going to win.’ That’s just not how the game is played,” Mazzulla said. “That’s not how it works. So to me, it’s not about having the lead. It’s what you do after you get the lead. By the end of the season, I want to try to be one of the best teams that plays with that. It doesn’t mean that we could be up 20 and it’s going to get to 2. That’s not the idea. It’s, can you have the mental resilience to not let it get to a certain point?
“So, I understand, especially the fans, I know it’s an issue in Boston. But it’s an issue in the entire league because of the variance and the talent and the things that go into it.”