This much I know about the Patriots — they probably aren’t going to match last year’s 14-3 record.
The Patriots are 4-3 after Thursday’s loss to Chicago, and their schedule is a bear. They have a few winnable games sprinkled in following this weekend’s mini-bye, such as next week in Miami and Week 12 at the Chargers. Otherwise, they face legitimate competition week after week — the Packers, Lions, Bills, and Chiefs. I predicted a 10-7 record this summer for just that reason.
But I also know this about the Patriots — they’re tough, they’re fun to watch, and they’re going to be one of the seven AFC playoff teams.
They are going to lose games like they did Thursday night, when they made too many mistakes to overcome. But if there are takeaways to be had after seven weeks, it’s that they are no longer just schedule merchants feasting on bad teams like a year ago.
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The 1-2 start is history. The 3-1 record since is who they are. The Patriots are for real.
They’re already set up well for the playoffs thanks to a 4-1 conference record that trails only the Chiefs, who are 5-0. Conference record is among the top playoff tiebreakers. The losses to the Seahawks and Bears won’t factor as much.
I see a team that battles. The Patriots beat the Bills in the final two minutes, and persevered against the Jets when they weren’t at their best. Thursday’s 30-24 loss to the Bears easily could have turned into another 35-6 fiasco like Jacksonville. It was a short week, the Bears jumped to a 10-0 lead, Soldier Field was rocking, and the Patriots couldn’t handle the blitz with third stringers playing on the offensive line. They won’t face a more difficult environment this year, except possibly in Kansas City.
But the Patriots kept fighting. They eventually found their rhythm, quieted the crowd, and were one bad throw from Drake Maye and one 58-yard field goal from Bears kicker Cairo Santos from pulling off the comeback.
“It’s a thin margin when you play good teams,” coach Mike Vrabel said. “I like the way they competed, and we certainly gave ourselves a chance.”
I see a coaching staff that is on point. The offense made terrific in-game adjustments, gaining 63 yards in the first quarter and 317 the final three. The Patriots couldn’t run the ball, but they found other ways to move it and deal with the Bears’ blitz.
Vrabel’s aggressive mind-set on fourth down has been sound, his team justifying his faith by converting 8 of 11 attempts. Vrabel and John Streicher continue their mastery of clock management, ordering Cory Durden to intentionally jump offside late in the fourth quarter to stop the clock. The Patriots are simply well prepared, allowing things to happen like when Rhamondre Stevenson popped loose for a 48-yard touchdown catch on the final play of the first half.
“We’ve been practicing that play since [the spring],” said Maye, whom just about everyone expected to throw a Hail Mary. “I kind of had a feeling they were going to come after me and blitz. So when it leaves, we got four blockers, and ’Mondre with the ball, and they got six defenders, and it all takes one cut. So that was pretty cool. How you draw it up.”
I see a team with good variety on offense. They have scored 31 points per game the last four weeks, but with different leaders every time. It hasn’t really mattered that they are battling through injuries on the offensive line and at receiver.
Thursday, it was Stevenson, Hunter Henry, and Eli Raridon leading the passing attack. Against the Jets, it was DeMario Douglas, Henry, and Romeo Doubs. Against the Raiders, it was Kyle Williams and Efton Chism. They have TreVeyon Henderson’s speed in reserve, and Mack Hollins coming back from injured reserve in a couple weeks. If A.J. Brown can get going, watch out.
Related: TreVeyon Henderson continues to be a shadow of the home run threat he appeared as a rookie for the Patriots
And I see a quarterback who is playing like an MVP candidate again, this year against far more formidable opponents. Maye’s end zone interception Thursday night was unfortunate, but was one of his only blips of the last four weeks; he has thrown 12 touchdowns against two picks, while rushing for two more scores.
He’s tough to stop with his legs, picking up a first down on 42 percent of his runs this year. Maye was nearly perfect against pressure Thursday night, completing 11 of 12 passes for 151 yards and a touchdown. He showed impressive toughness on his 7-yard touchdown run, powering through a defender from 2 yards out.
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Maye plays with poise, moxie, and guts. Last year was no fluke.
“I know he’d like to have that throw back to Eli, but I thought he really competed, whether that was running around and scrambling, or finding good places to go with the football,” Vrabel said. “I’m glad he’s ours.”
The Patriots are far from perfect. The tackling was awful against the Bears, and the secondary allowed too many catches. The minus-7 turnover margin is a major concern, both in the offense’s inability to play a clean game (one giveaway in every game this season) and the defense’s inability to force them (just two in the last three games).
But the Patriots are well coached. They’re tough. They have talent. And the rest of their season is going to be a lot of fun.