Jaylen Warren celebrates with Aaron Rodgers after scoring a touchdown against the Colts two weeks ago.
Jaylen Warren celebrates with Aaron Rodgers after scoring a touchdown against the Colts two weeks ago.
Steelers insider Christopher Carter breaks down the Week 7 game vs. the New Orleans Saints and lists the team’s keys to victory.
When the Steelers have the ball
The Saints come into Sunday with one of the NFL’s worst defenses. The Steelers must capitalize on the opportunity to put a more complete offensive performance together against a defense that ranks 31st in points allowed and 29th in yards allowed. The Saints do have players who generate splash plays, though.
Chase Young has become the team’s ace pass rusher with 5.5 sacks (tied for third most in the NFL). Cornerback Martin Emerson Jr. and safety Julian Blackmon have two interceptions each, which is a big reason why the Saints ranks ninth in takeaways (1.6 per game). The trade-off for the Saints is they give up lots of explosive plays. The Saints’ average of 13.1 explosive plays allowed per game ranks 25th, while their 8.1 explosive passes allowed per game ranks 27th.
The Steelers have one of the worst third-down offenses in the NFL, but they face a Saints defense that’s near the bottom of the league in stopping third downs. The best way for the Steelers to get around their third-down issues is to generate explosive plays on earlier downs. The Steelers average 11.4 explosive plays per game (13th most in the NFL).
When the Saints have the ball
The Saints offense ranks 11th in points scored and the Steelers defense is 12th in points allowed. Quarterback Tyler Shough has been solid in his second year with 12 touchdown passes and five interceptions. Ten of those touchdowns have come on short or intermediate throws, which means the Steelers’ soft zones that have left underneath routes open might play into the 27-year old’s hands.
Chief among Shough’s threats is Chris Olave, whose 580 receiving yards are second most in the NFL, behind only Jaxon Smith-Njigba. But half of Shough’s touchdowns go to his tight ends. Juwan Johnson and Noah Fant each have three scores, all of which have come in the red zone. The Steelers have allowed only two touchdown receptions to tight ends (ninth fewest), so we’ll have to wait and see who wins the tight end battle.
While the Saints still have Alvin Kamara at running back, the days of Kamara carrying the load for the offense are gone. His 120 rushing yards trail Travis Etienne Jr.’s 128 and Kendre Miller’s 153. The Steelers will need to keep the Saints’ run game in check to minimize Shough’s potential impact on play-action passes, where his passer rating jumps to 115.4.
Top matchup
Jamel Dean vs. Chris Olave
The cornerback and wide receiver have faced off four times during Dean’s days in the NFC South with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Olave has been one of the more efficient receivers in the NFL this season, but Dean mostly limited Olave in previous matchups.
In those four games, Olave totaled seven catches on 11 targets when being covered by Dean, gaining only 56 yards and two first downs. Dean had one pass break-up and one interception.
If Dean can erase Shough’s top receiver, that would make it easier for the rest of the defense to limit the Saints’ other top targets, force Shough to hold onto the ball longer and give the pass rush a chance to get home. Shough’s average of 2.63 seconds to throw is seventh fastest among starting quarterbacks (tied with Aaron Rodgers).
The X-factor: Jaylen Warren
The Saints have the 30th-ranked rushing defense (138 rushing yards per game) and have allowed a league-high 11 rushing touchdowns to running backs. That suggests the Steelers need to lean on Warren, whose 718 yards from scrimmage is the most on the team by almost 400 yards.
This is another week to get Warren going in space and let him be the key playmaker of the offense. Last week, the Buccaneers loaded the box often and limited Warren to just 2.6 yards per carry when they had eight or more defenders in it. The Saints have loaded the box against the run just 55 times, which ranks 23rd in the NFL. Warren and the Steelers’ offensive line should get some favorable chances to create space.
Carter’s three keys
Own the red zone. When the Saints get close to the end zone, they’re one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL. Their 84.2% touchdown rate in the red zone ranks second, and they’ve scored touchdowns every time they’ve gotten to a goal-to-go situation. The Steelers defense ranks seventh in the red zone, allowing touchdowns at a 50% rate.
Cover the tight ends. Patrick Queen has posted some of the better coverage numbers for linebackers this season, and he could help keep the Saints’ tight ends in check — especially in the red zone. With his 60.8 passer rating allowed (third best among qualified linebackers), plus Jalen Ramsey playing well and the likely return of DeShon Elliott, the Steelers should have the resources to combat the Saints’ tight ends.
Be the better pass rush. The Saints defense sacks quarterbacks on 8.1% of dropbacks, while the Steelers defense is right behind them at 8.0%. Whichever pass rush wins more often could go a long way toward determining a winner.
The bottom line
The Steelers could snag an advantage on offense in this one. Aaron Rodgers and Co. need to finally put together a complete performance and take advantage of a Saints defense that’s struggled outside of creating some big plays. As long as the Steelers’ offensive line gives Rodgers time to see the field, he should be able to give the Steelers’ playmakers plenty of chances to set the tone.
Carter’s call
Steelers 34, Saints 27
First Published: October 25, 2026, 1:00 a.m.