Arch Manning
Dec 21, 2024; Austin, Texas, USA; Detailed view of the jersey of Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) against the Clemson Tigers during the CFP National playoff first round at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning entered the 2026 college football season as the early favorite to go No. 1 overall in the 2027 NFL Draft. Now, there are real questions about whether he’ll be in the draft at all.
According to a new report, several NFL executives are skeptical that Manning will declare after the season. And amid his struggles, the growing consensus around the sport seems to be that another year of college football might be the best thing for him.
Manning’s Rough Season
Texas has dropped back-to-back games to Oklahoma and Florida, both by a score of 27-24, and Manning committed a costly late turnover in each. Through six games, he has thrown for 1,295 yards, 11 touchdowns, and five interceptions.
Manning has owned his struggles.
“I haven’t put good film on tape the past five weeks, and I’m going to be better,” Manning told reporters this week, via The Athletic. “I’m going to be better for my teammates. I’m going to be better for myself, and I’m going to be better for my coaches.”
But the pressure is mounting. Josh Pate said Manning is “on thin ice” as the starter, and ESPN’s Pete Thamel reported on Saturday that Steve Sarkisian has “started to prepare” to replace Manning if he struggles against Ole Miss.
Manning did bounce back in a big way against Ole Miss, throwing for 212 yards and a touchdown with two interceptions to help lead Texas to a big win over a top-10 opponent, but broader concerns about his play still very much exist.
Draft Doubts
Now, NFL teams are wondering whether Manning will be part of the 2027 draft class at all.
“Several NFL executives expressed skepticism this week that some, if not a majority, of the projected top QBs will even enter the 2027 NFL Draft,” wrote Tom Pelissero. “That includes Arch Manning, whom NFL scouts have seen less of since Texas closed practice.”
Plenty of analysts think he should stay in school. Mel Kiper Jr. believes Manning should return for another college season, and Dan Orlovsky said Manning should skip the NFL but leave Texas and “go to a place that can adamantly develop him as a quarterback,” via Awful Announcing.
“I do not believe Arch should go to the NFL,” Orlovsky said.
Even before Manning’s struggles this season, his uncle, Eli Manning, suggested that there’s more to college than just getting to the NFL, pointing to the chance to compete for championships and build something with his teammates.
Manning and the Longhorns host No. 7 Ole Miss on Saturday night in a game that could go a long way toward deciding his future, wherever he ends up playing in 2027.
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