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NFL picks, predictions against the spread Week 8: Bills clip Ravens, Steelers stop Browns, Bengals roll image
The 2026 NFL season has been difficult to predict. The goal is to get as much candy as possible without getting too many rocks to weigh down the bag. Sometimes, there are more tricks than treats. Navigating through Week 8 with Halloween approaching is no different.
With four more teams on bye, there's another scary slate of 14 games ahead, including mostly tough one-possession spreads.
Don't let the past results haunt you. We're not afraid of ghosts, goblins, ghouls or tossup games. Here's diving into another fearless forecast of professional pigskin prognostications:
MORE: SN's latest NFL power rankings for Week 8
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NFL picks against the spread for Week 8
All spreads and odds are courtesy of bet365 Sportsbook.
All prediction market implied probabilities are from ProphetX. ProphetX displays market percentages instead of betting odds. The percentages reflect the collective implied probability of an event.
Game of Midweek: Panthers at Packers (-3.5, 47.5 o/u)
Odds:-112 on bet365
Probability:51.69% on ProphetX
Thursday 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video
The Panthers have taken over as the league's worst run defense, allowing 153.2 rushing yards per game. Although the Packers have been a pass-first team, they can get back on track with more balance in this matchup. The promising return of Josh Jacobs last week will lead to an even bigger game from the workhorse. The Panthers' offense is suddenly hurting and facing a more inspired Jonathan Gannon defense on the road doesn't bode well.
Pick: Packers win 27-17 and cover the spread.
NFC Game of the Week: Bears at Seahawks (-3.5, 46.5 o/u)
Odds:+104 on bet365
Probability:48.31% on ProphetX
Monday 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Bears have been a scoring machine when quarterback Caleb Williams leads their explosive offense. The Seahawks, however, can contain D'Andre Swift in the running game to set up more pressure chances to get at Williams. The Bears' defense will keep them in it with some sacks and takeaways vs. Sam Darnold. In a lower-scoring affair in prime time, go with the team backed by a loud home crowd.
Pick: Seahawks win 23-20 but fail to cover the spread.
AFC Game of the Week: Chiefs (-1.5, 41.5 o/u) at Broncos
Odds:-110 on bet365
Probability:50.74% on ProphetX
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
The Chiefs were shell-shocked by their shellacking in Seattle, but they will have a chance to rebound on the ground with Kenneth Walker III. Bo Nix has been a great home QB but Patrick Mahomes also has a history of owning the Broncos. This should be a hard-fought physical game but Kansas City's running game will provide the winning edge.
Pick: Chiefs win 23-20 and cover the spread.
Lock of the Week: Colts at Jaguars (-7.5, 46.5 o/u)
Odds:-111 on bet365
Probability:52.15% on ProphetX
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Jaguars are an interception-hungry defense under Anthony Campanile. Daniel Jones is struggling with ball protection and making bad decisions like he did in his Giants' days. Jacksonville will be ready to fly out of the gate after a Week 7 bye, while Indianapolis is reeling and almost going through the motions with lame-duck coach Shane Steichen. The Jaguars also are No. 1 against the run, making it tougher sledding for Jonathan Taylor.
Pick: Jaguars win 31-14 and cover the spread.
Upset of the Week: Falcons (+1.5, 46.5 o/u) at Buccaneers
Odds:-103 on bet365
Probability:49.26% on ProphetX
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Atlanta and Tampa Bay, like the rest of the shaky NFC South, are roller coaster, box-of-chocolate teams. You never know what you'll get, especially when division rivals play each other, regardless of who's home and who's away. We think the Buccaneers (routing the Panthers on the road) were impressive in Week 7, but the Falcons made the bigger statement (beating the 49ers at home). That's all we've got and we're going with it.
Pick: Falcons win 27-24.
Ravens at Bills (-3.5, 53.5 o/u)
Odds:-104 on bet365
Probability:48.08% on ProphetX
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Bills have more issues with pass defense, but whether it's Tyler Huntley or Lamar Jackson, the Ravens give them a break with their inconsistency. Derrick Henry has been a Bills killer in the past, but Baltimore's rushing attack is slumping. Buffalo is home and well-rested after a bye and can lean into Josh Allen's great passing and running history against Baltimore. He will improve to 5-3 vs. the Ravens.
Pick: Bills win 31-24 and cover the spread.
Titans at Bengals (-10.5, 46.5 o/u)
Odds:-110 on bet365
Probability:49.26% on ProphetX
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Titans are hoping Cam Ward can keep flashing why he was the No. 1 overall pick as their franchise QB. The Bengals don't have those questions with Joe Burrow, who is red-hot in picking apart pass defenses. Burrow is locked into his wide receivers and tight ends as a potential MVP. Ward will face Dexter Lawrence and a much-improved defensive front on the road.
Pick: Bengals win 34-17 and cover the spread.
Cardinals at Cowboys (-6.5, 53.5 o/u)
Odds:-105 on bet365
Probability:50.5% on ProphetX
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Cardinals have had almost zero chance to win at home for a while but they are more comfortable on the road. The Cowboys, however, tend to dominate non-prime window games at home. Their defense gets a break from a compressed passing game and a hurting running game. Arizona, on the flipside, cannot cover or contain Dak Prescott's weapons downfield.
Pick: Cowboys win 30-20 and cover the spread.
Vikings at Lions (-3.5, 46.5 o/u)
Odds:-102 on bet365
Probability:47.85% on ProphetX
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Vikings have dominated with defense and are getting away with little offense. They will face a different kind of test on the road. Jared Goff can handle blitzes well with his top wide receivers and tight ends. Jahmyr Gibbs and the Lions' running game can also get some wins at the line of scrimmage. The Lions' defense also carries some positive vibes after slowing down the Packers.
Pick: Lions win 23-20 but fail to cover the spread.
Raiders (-1.5, 44.5 o/u) at Jets
Odds:+106 on bet365
Probability:49.02% on ProphetX
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Raiders are sticking with Kirk Cousins after four consecutive losses. They are at least competitive offensively and have some defensive playmakers. The Jets, however, are a little more desperate as Aaron Glenn feels more heat. Geno Smith is still feeling it with the new-look offense and the defense gets a break because the Raiders' running game tends to sputter.
Pick: Jets win 24-20.
Browns at Steelers (-3.5, 38.5 o/u)
Odds:-111 on bet365
Probability:50.98% on ProphetX
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Browns have all their five wins thanks to Deshaun Watson snatching victory from the jaws of defeat late in the fourth quarter. That's a feel-good development for rookie coach Todd Monken, but not sustainable as a first-place team. Aaron Rodgers is feeling it since the last Cleveland matchup and will outduel Watson with superior weapons.
Pick: Steelers win 24-20 and cover the spread.
Chargers at Rams (-6.5, 43.5 o/u)
Odds:-113 on bet365
Probability:52.83% on ProphetX
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox
Justin Herbert and Jim Harbaugh lead the league's only winless team in Week 8. They should fix some issues and come out with a cleaner, run-heavy offense. Herbert should have his best game of the season after the bye, which doesn't require much. The Rams also have been sloppy at times. The Rams survive another scare in the battle for Los Angeles.
Pick: Rams win 27-23 but fail to cover the spread.
Patriots quarterback Drake Maye
Patriots quarterback Drake Maye
Patriots (-7.5, 44.5 o/u) at Dolphins
Odds:-108 on bet365
Probability:48.08% on ProphetX
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
The Patriots' offense had a hiccup with Drake Maye in Chicago, but he should get back on track against a Dolphins defense giving up plenty of his signature big pass plays. New England can also keep running the ball well and the defense will respond better for Mike Vrabel. Miami got on the board last week and there will be a division letdown this week.
Pick: Patriots win 24-14 and cover the spread.
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Eagles at Commanders (-3.5, 40.5 o/u)
Odds:-114 on bet365
Probability:55.16% on ProphetX
Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC/Peacock
The Commanders are fighting through some offensive line and skill injuries but Jayden Daniels should come out a little more settled in the David Blough offense after the bye. The Eagles' defense has become a little more vulnerable and their offense is down to being run-heavy against a good Washington run defense under Dan Quinn.
Pick: Commanders win 20-17 but fail to cover the spread.
MORE:Where the Commanders might turn if they fire Dan Quinn
Stats of the Week
Week 7 straight-up record: 9-5
Week 7 against the spread record: 5-9
Season-to-date straight-up record: 68-39
Season-to-date against the spread record: 50-57