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NFL picks, predictions for Week 8: Lions hand Vikings first loss, Bears beat Seahawks in prime time image
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The NFC North continues to be the ultimate proving ground.
Teams in that division have combined for an 18-9 record – and two will be in prime time in Week 8. Green Bay (4-3) – fresh off a 20-17 loss to Detroit – takes on Carolina (3-3) at Lambeau Field on Thursday Night Football and will hope to avoid a repeat of their Week 2 meltdown against the Atlanta Falcons. Green Bay has a bye week in Week 9 – and Micah Parsons could return afterward. The Packers aren't dead yet.
Minnesota (6-0) – the lone unbeaten team left in the NFL – takes on the Lions (4-2) at Ford Field. The Vikings won both meetings in this series last year and have a chance to take a commanding lead in the division.
That leaves Chicago (5-2). The Bears are on a two-game winning streak since the return of Caleb Williams, and they take on Seattle (4-3) on Monday Night Football. It's yet another prime-time spotlight for both teams.
What will the NFC North look like at the midpoint? That is the best storyline heading into Week 8, which also features a matchup between the Bills (5-1) and Ravens (4-3) in the AFC.
Here is a look at our track record to this point:
S/U: 67-39-1 (8-6 in Week 7)
ATS: 46-60-1 (8-6 in Week 7)
NFL POWER RANKINGS:Bills are the new No. 1; Packers, Patriots slip
NFL picks, predictions for Week 8
All spreads and odds are courtesy of bet365 Sportsbook.
All prediction market implied probabilities are from ProphetX. ProphetX displays market percentages instead of betting odds. The percentages reflect the collective implied probability of an event.
PACKERS (-3.5) over Panthers
Odds: -114 on bet365
Probability:46.51% on ProphetX
Thursday, 8:15 p.m., Prime Video
The Panthers have been wildly unpredictable this season, and it hinges on whether Bryce Young can bounce back from a bad outing against the Buccaneers. Green Bay has the worst rushing offense in the NFL (59.9 ypg). The Panthers have the worst rushing defense (153.3 ypg.). Will Josh Jacobs get that running game on track?
Pick: Packers 27, Panthers 22
BILLS (-3.5) over Ravens
Odds:-104 on bet365
Probability:48.08% on ProphetX
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
Lamar Jackson (ankle) is expected to return for this matchup. The Ravens lost back-to-back division games to the Browns and Bengals – so this is a critical spot in the season. Buffalo leads the NFL with 32.8 points per game. Josh Allen has a 90.3 passer rating at home, but he'll be on point coming out of a bye week.
Pick: Bills 28, Ravens 24
MORE:Inside Ravens' baffling, costly fourth-down decision vs. Bengals
Titans (+10.5) over BENGALS
Odds:-110 on bet365
Probability:49.5% on ProphetX
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
The Bengals are huge favorites. Joe Burrow has four TD passes in each of his last two starts. The Titans will not be able to get in a shootout – but Tennessee is 2-1 ATS as a road underdog and they can heat up the passer at times. The Titans will not pull the road upset, but a back-door cover is possible here because the Bengals average 81.2 rushing yards per game – which ranks 29th in the NFL.
Pick: Bengals 28, Titans 19
COWBOYS (-6.5) over Cardinals
Odds: -105 on bet365
Probability:48.78% on ProphetX
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Cowboys are coming off a short week and have just their third true home game of the season. Dallas is 1-1 at Jerry World. The Cardinals are 2-2 on the road, but they have allowed 30 or more points five times this season. This is a spot for Dallas to get back on track.
Pick: Cowboys 30, Cardinals 20
Vikings (+3.5) over LIONS
Odds:+107 on bet365
Probability:58.33% on ProphetX
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
This is a fun NFC North matchup. The Vikings' defense continues to dominate, but Detroit's offense presents a new challenge. Jared Goff averages 259.3 passing yards per game with six TDs and no interceptions at home and Jahmyr Gibbs continues to put up huge numbers. Detroit's defense also improved with the return of safety Brian Branch. The Lions hand the Vikings their first loss, but it will be tight.
Pick: Lions 25, Vikings 22
RAIDERS (-1.5) over Jets
Odds: +106 on bet365
Probability:55.16% on ProphetX
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
Is the Fernando Mendoza era coming soon in Las Vegas? The Raiders are stuck in a four-game skid, and the poor defense is getting in the way. Kirk Cousins still has multiple TDs in six of seven games, and the Jets are 1-4 S/U in one-score games. The Aaron Glenn era might end before the Mendoza era begins. The Raiders are 2-1 ATS on the road.
Pick: Raiders 28, Jets 20
MORE: Ranking Jets' best coaching candidates to replace Aaron Glenn
STEELERS (-3.5) over Browns
Odds: -113 on bet365
Probability:47.17% on ProphetX
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
The Browns are 5-1 in one-score games – and their last six games have been decided by six points or less. Cleveland beat Pittsburgh in the first matchup, too. This time, Pittsburgh will build off the running game. The Steelers are 3-0 S/U at home, and Aaron Rodgers has a 101.6 passer rating.
Pick: Steelers 23, Browns 16
BUCCANEERS (-1.5) over Falcons
Odds:-112 on bet365
Probability:49.26% on ProphetX
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
Both teams are in the hunt in the NFC South. Baker Mayfield had just 11 pass attempts in a 30-point blowout last week, and Tampa Bay hasn't allowed more than 100 rushing yards in a game since Week 1. The Falcons counter with Bijan Robinson, who leads the NFL with 704 rushing yards. The Buccaneers get their first home win of the season in a nailbiter. Atlanta has won three in a row at Tampa Bay.
Pick: Buccaneers 27, Falcons 24
Colts (+7.5) over JAGUARS
Odds:-109 on bet365
Probability:51.92% on ProphetX
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Colts are potential sellers for the NFL trade deadline, but they have three one-score losses and have covered both times as an underdog of six points or more. The Jaguars are coming off a bye week and have a plus-four turnover margin. It seems like an easy play knowing Jacksonville has won the last 11 home meetings in the series.
Pick: Jaguars 31, Colts 24
MORE:Ranking Colts' best coaching candidates to replace Shane Steichen
Chargers (+7.5) over RAMS
Odds: -101 on bet365
Probability:48.78% on ProphetX
Sunday, 4:05 p.m., Fox
The Chargers come out of a bye week looking for answers for an offense that averages a league-worst 15 points per game. Myles Garrett (knee) is nearing a return for the Rams, but it might not be this week. The Rams are 1-2 S/U at home games this season, though this is technically both teams' home stadium. Still, we trust that offense more around Matthew Stafford, who averaged 10.3 yards per attempt with three TD passes in Week 7. The Chargers are 0-4 ATS as an underdog.
Pick: Rams 28, Chargers 21
CHIEFS (-1.5) vs. Broncos
Odds:-110 on bet365
Probability:50.74% on ProphetX
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., CBS
The Chiefs beat the Broncos 31-10 in Week. Kansas City is coming off a Sunday Night Football dud at Seattle, so this is a bounce-back spot for Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs need more production out of their receivers, and Rashee Rice (hamstring) could return this week. Denver quarterback Bo Nix has not thrown an interception in the Broncos' last four games. This will be a slugfest between two of the league's top-seven scoring defenses.
Pick: Chiefs 20, Broncos 17
MORE: Why Broncos top best fits to trade for RB Jonathan Taylor
Dolphins (+7.5) over PATRIOTS
Odds:-108 on bet365
Probability:48.08% on ProphetX
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., CBS
New England is 1-3 S/U on the road, so this line could dip a little bit throughout the week. Ollie Gordon – who has 191 rushing yards and two TDs the last two weeks – has given the Dolphins a viable rushing attack. New England has a minus-7 turnover ratio for the season, and Miami has won the five of the last six home meetings. The Pats are still the better team, but the Dolphins can cover this line.
Pick: Patriots 28, Dolphins 21
COMMANDERS (-3.5) over Eagles
Odds: -114 on bet365
Probability:55.75% on ProphetX
Sunday, 8:20 p.m., NBC
Injuries have piled up for the Eagles, and Tanner McKee will try to score a road victory against the Commanders. Philadelphia won the first meeting 24-22. The Commanders had a bye week, and Jayden Daniels has more than 300 total yards in each of his last two starts. That QB production will be a difference maker at home, and the Eagles are 1-2 ATS as an underdog.
Pick: Commanders 23, Eagles 18
Bears (+3.5) over SEAHAWKS
Odds: +100 on bet365
Probability:57.63% on ProphetX
Monday, 8:15 p.m., ESPN
This could be a NFC playoff preview. The Seahawks are 3-1 S/U at home – and they have played a strong schedule. Caleb Williams has enjoyed back-to-back 300-yard games since returning from a hamstring injury – but he's taken seven sacks. Chicago is 2-0 S/U in prime-time games. Turnovers are key for Sam Darnold. The Seahawks are 4-0 when they have one turnover or less and 0-3 when they have two or more.
Pick: Seahawks 24, Bears 21