The Buffalo Bills offense has been very good in 2026.
Thank goodness for that, because the Bills defense has been bad. A bye week is just what the doctor ordered to get the defensive side of the ball hopefully on a better path for the remainder of the 2026 season, but the Bills passing offense is the unit that will be put under an unexpected microscope as the team prepares to face the Baltimore Ravens and Minnesota Vikings over the next two weeks.
Lost in the greatest of quarterback Josh Allen and the Bills expectedly-productive passing attack in 2026 is that it has come with it a strong performance for the unit against the blitz. In 2025, Josh Allen against the blitz registered the following results (amongst 41 QBs with at least 50 drop backs):
21st in success rate
27th in completion percentage over expected (CPOE)
19th in adjusted completion percentage
30th (lower is worse) in off-target throw rate
14th in expected points added (EPA) per drop back
In 2026, those numbers have jumped up notably to:
4th in success rate
9th in CPOE
9th in adjusted completion percentage
14th (lower is worse) in off-target throw rate
2nd in EPA per drop back
One of the most notable differences in results in the Bills offense in 2026 with former offensive coordinator Joe Brady at the helm as head coach is the passing game’s performance against the blitz, and this new trick couldn’t have come at a better time, because two of the most blitz-happy teams in the National Football League are on the docket for the next two Buffalo Bills games.
The Baltimore Ravens have blitzed opposing offenses on 36.5% of opposing plays (8th most in the NFL), while defensive coordinator Brian Flores and the Minnesota Vikings continue to absolutely shell shock offenses with a staggering 73.9% of the time (handedly #1 in the league).
The results from each team’s blitzing has been different, though, and we should judge the Bills performance against each team’s blitz differently. The Ravens are 23rd in the league in EPA per play allowed when blitzing, and the Vikings are 4th in the NFL in that same metric. In fact, the Ravens have a statistically significant delta between their EPA per play allowed when blitzing (+0.16) and when rushing with four (-0.02), so each team can be considered “blitz heavy”, but a.) not to even close to the same degree and b.) to not the same degree of effectiveness. Each one will provide a test against a Bills team that has only faced one defense that’s inside the top 10 in blitz rate (New England, #5 at 41.3%) and produced a season low success rate of 45.5% in that game.
The Bills have been good overall against the blitz in 2026, but they’ve only had to deal with a single blitz-heavy team and it produced their only loss of the season. The next two weeks will go far to outline if the team is actually much better against the blitz compared to 2025 or if they just haven’t faced enough blitz experts.
...and that’s the way the cookie crumbles. I’m Bruce Nolan with Buffalo Rumblings. You can find me on Twitter and Instagram @BruceExclusive and look for new episodes of “The Bruce Exclusive” every Thursday on the Rumblings Cast Network — see more in my LinkTree!
Comments