SHHH!!! Hey… you’uns hear that? That’s the sound of… VICTORY!!! The Miami Dolphins got their first win of the season over the hated New York Jets. It wasn’t a comfortable win by any means, but we will take any win we can get. Especially over the Jets. As The Miami Ute said in the reactions thread: “A victory versus the Jets is worth 10 victories over common opponents.” I looked into it and that is correct; the math on that definitely checks out. So what all went into this DUB?
THE OFFENSE CAME TO PLAY
But Duke… it’s just the lowly 2-4 Jets. That’s correct. But as Marisa Marino from DolphinsTalk tweeted, the Jets were a top 10 defense in just about every metric. I pointed out some of those as well. The Jets may now be 2-5, but they have only lost one game this season by more than one score, and that was just 11 points. The Jets have held every team they have faced under their average passing yards per game… except the Dolphins. Now, it doesn’t take much to get over Miami’s average, which was 31st entering the game. But they exceeded that average nonetheless. There were some hiccups in the second half, but they did what was necessary to win when it mattered most.
They also scored 28 points, which is the 2nd most points the Jets have allowed in a game this season. They are now off the bottom of the scoring average, nearly a full PPG ahead of the Titans and 1.3 PPG ahead of Mike McDaniel and the Captain If Justin Herbert led Chargers. Whether they can maintain it is another question for another day. But if they play like they did for the majority of this game, I don’t see why they can’t maintain it. It’s also impressive that the Dolphins gained 360 total yards. That’s the 4th most the Jets have allowed this season. The teams ahead of the Dolphins are ranked in the top 10 in total yards this season.
But the most impressive thing the offense did Sunday: they got the ball with 3:24 left in the game. The Jets had just scored 8 points to bring the game to within 3 points. Outside of the explosive play to Douglas, the Dolphins had been quiet in the 2nd half. This is big boy football time and if we are all being honest, we were all clinched up for this drive. We have seen this FAR too many time, especially in the last regime, where the team just couldn’t put away an opponent. NOT THIS TIME!!! The Dolphins ran for a first down with a 14-yard run. Then 3 runs for 9 total yards. They were at midfield with a 4th-and-1 with 2 minutes left. They went for it using their version of the Tush Push play. And that was it. They converted and entered the victory formation. In the past, we have heard the talk about the Dolphins becoming more physical, but it was always nothing more than talk. In that moment, the Dolphins were the more physical team and it showed up.
THE DEFENSE STILL NEEDS WORK
The pass defense is what it is. The Dolphins still allow a ridiculously high completion percentage to opponents. I somewhat expected this against the Jets as Geno Smith has been less reluctant to throw downfield this season. Smith actually pushed the ball downfield this game and hit some explosives that resulted in TDs for the Jets. This is stuff they’ll need to clean up from the film room and work on the communication. Two big plays were busted coverages, and the other was a play that looked Dante Trader had a chance to intercept it. Those 3 plays accounted for 153 yards, which is over half of the total passing yards. Of course, we could do the same type of accounting for the Dolphins or any team really. But 3 plays out of 30 passing attempts accounting for over half of the production signals outliers to me. On 27 other attempts, the Dolphins allowed 134 yards, which tracks with the idea of the Jets keeping it short. They still have issues with TEs although I’ll give them credit: both of Taylor’s TDs were contested catches.
The issue I’m going to take up is the run defense. The Dolphins were top 10 in YPC allowed and overall yards allowed. They held MVP candidate Kenneth Walker III in check a few games ago. They allowed the Jets to run over them, especially late. Braelon Allen ran for 104 yards on 17 carries, a 6.1 YPC average. Allen has stepped up into lead back role for the Jets in the absence of Breece Hall and he is averaging over 4 YPC in games where he is the primary contributor. But the Dolphins should have held their ground against him. The game plan changed for the Jets in the 2nd half. Of Allen’s 17 carries, 12 of them came in the 2nd half. Allen had 5 carries for 23 yards in the 1st half. The Jets, down 2 TDs, said they didn’t think the Dolphins could stop their rushing attack, and they were right. The Jets are bad in the red zone, and the Dolphins got a goal line stand that resulted in a FG. But the Dolphins will face much better RBs and better rushing attacks in the next few weeks. I don’t know if they can fix the pass defense anytime soon, so the run defense needs to do their part.
THIS AND THAT
Malik Willis played exceptionally well this game. The difference from what we’ve previously seen and that was night and day. His stat line won’t blow anyone’s mind, but he was decisive, made smart decisions, and protected the ball. As JUK pointed out, 5 bad games of Willis were not enough of a sample size to make a judgment on him, and neither is 1 good game. But this level of play could be the start of an upward trend. Of course, we need to see this next week and then the next and so on. But give credit where credit is due, he played very well.
Ollie Gordon continues to be refreshing part of a tough season with his aggressive running and fiery temperament – he’s gonna get a flag thrown on him with the way he’s chirping. But that’s fine, because we need to see that fire from players. Do you think Gordon is gonna be laughing on the sideline after making a mistake that effectively ends your season? No. He’s old school and I’m here for it. He’s currently 19th in rushing yards, which is wild considering he had 3 carries for 7 yards in the 1st 2 games this season. In the 3 games since becoming the primary back, he has averaged 97 yards per game. If he maintains that pace the rest of the way, he’ll finish with over 1400 rushing yards! More importantly, he has scored a TD in all 4 games he has had be a heavy contributor. That pace will be difficult to continue, but he has a chance to finish with double digit TDs. There are too many AFC backs ahead of him and the Dolphins’ eventual record with be a deterrent, but he is on a Pro Bowl pace.
Bobby Slowik needs a shout out. He finally listened to me (not really but let me feel important for a minute) and dialed up the short passing game. Here are some interesting tweets about that here and here. But what he was doing was working. My favorite offensive stat: 41 rushing attempts. Look, I grew up in the 80s on hard-nosed rushing attack football that was 3 yards and a cloud of dust. The current NFL is flashy and pass happy and we saw all of that with McDaniel. I’m glad to see the return of “ground and pound”. The Dolphins’ passing game was good against the Jets. It will need to be better in future games. But I’ll never complain about a dominant rushing attack. Now… Willis rushed for 8 attempts. 3 of those were called runs for sure: the 2 kneeldowns and the tush-push. On of the 2 sacks he took was actually a designed QB run play. The others were pass plays, so we can assume 25 total dropbacks to 36 run plays called. But still… if the Dolphins can dominate in the run game, they will be tough for anyone to beat.
Welcome back Caleb Douglas. He was not a major factor in terms of volume, but both his catches went for TDs. He is still a rookie and playing in only his third game. He is still learning. However, his mere presence will give the offense a boost. The volume will get there. Also, watch the utter filthiness of this route.
I am going to continue to bang this drum, but… Chris Bell needs to work from the slot. I’m not the only one who has thought this. Bell has the size, strength, and speed to be an outside receiver. But so far, he has struggled generating consistent separation. What we HAVE seen, and saw against the Jets, was his ability AFTER the catch. Against Cincinnati, he had a long run which shows what he can do with the ball in his hands. Against NYJ, he had a WR screen play that gained 8 yards. It should have been stopped for a loss or no gain. But Bell was simply too physical and barreled ahead for 8 yards. Folks… that’s slot WR type work. If the Dolphins can use him as an underneath player that works for YAC, they have a monster on their hands. The benefit to this thought process is Bell can still play outside. He’s not LIMITED to the slot like other WRs may be. But I think he can do the most damage there. Stay with me here, because I’m gonna tie this together with the next few thoughts.
Greg Dulcich came out of witness protection to have a big game… on National Tight Ends Day of course. He caught all 5 targets for 86 yards, including a fantastic catch-and-run that was an ankle tackle from being a TD. We need to see more days like this. My favorite play of his though? On Miami’s second TD drive, Willis breaks the pocket for a 12-yard run on 3rd-and-9. Dulcich effectively boxes out his defender to allow the 1st down gain for Willis. It wasn’t a dominant block or anything. But it’s one of those things that will never show up in the box score that helps the team succeed. Had he not done that, his defender could have potentially tackled Willis short of the line to gain. That early in the game, the Dolphins may have kicked a FG. If so, that’s a 4-point swing in a game decided by 3 points. All because Dulcich had the wherewithal to wall off a defender. Smart football.
Last week, Kyle Crabbs of Locked On Dolphins did a podcast about how the Dolphins need to spend cash in 2027 to get close to the spending floor. The part I’m interested in now is the names of players he listed. The Dolphins will have the cash and cap to acquire 2-3 big money free agents (or 6-7 midrange players). One of the names he mentioned was current Detroit TE Sam LaPorta. LaPorta is a great receiving TE weapon that can play in line as well as off the line. He would be a great addition to this unit. I am also down with keeping Greg Dulcich, because he will earn an extension if he keeps playing the way he produced Sunday. With LaPorta, Dulcich, and Kacmarek, the Dolphins could play 13 or 23 personnel and still have a quality passing attack.
This win is nice and I would love to see more. But the reality is the Dolphins are still likely to finish with a top 5 draft pick. With the QB class looking like it does, the Dolphins may be in position to get phenom Jeremiah Smith, who only has 984 yards, and 12 TDs in 7 games this season. If Miami were to draft Smith, that would give them a true generational X-WR prospect that would allow Douglas to play the Z role and Bell can play in the slot (almost there).
Now for the payoff. This is all contingent upon how Willis plays the rest of the season. If he plays like he did on Sunday, the Dolphins will be in good shape. With that in mind, imagine an offense featuring a backfield of Willis, Achane, and Gordon, a WR corps of Smith, Douglas, and Bell, and a TE group of LaPorta, Dulcich, and Kacmarek. Is that too much to ask for? Probably. But we can dream, right?
Chop Robinson is playing better than you think. He only has 2 sacks on the season and that’s the stat that gets paid. But he is generating pressure better than anyone else in the league. Per NextGenStats, he has a pressure rate of 23.4%, which is highest in the league. Why aren’t they turning into sacks? I don’t know. But I do know I saw him used on stunts and got into Smith’s face on Sunday, but the ball was out quick. I saw him rush from the interior a couple of times Sunday. I also saw him force a jet motion pass play to go deeper into the backfield than desired and it resulted in a 3-yard loss. He was also in a few run stops. He had his fair share of losses. Armand Membou is a good OT. But he’s not playing poorly, like some would suggest just because he doesn’t have the sack totals. It also needs to be noted that the Dolphins have faced the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 7th ranked teams in order of sack percentage (SF, KC, LV, Cincy respectively). All 4 are under 5% and only Cincy is over 4%. Those teams don’t give up sacks regularly. Those teams are also 2nd, 10th, 1st, and 24th in pass block win rate respectively. Cincy is low, but that’s all IOL. Their 2 OTs are ranked top 20 in PBWR. The next 3 opponents are 5th, 4th, and 14th respectively in PBWR and 14th, 11th, and 21st respectively in sack percentage. The next step in the development would be to win against the top OTs. He will get his chance in 2 weeks as the Lions have 2 ranked in the top 20 in PBWR.
What is wrong with Jaylen Wright? Every time he runs, he seems to get stopped for a loss or no gain. It can’t be just on him, right? Maybe there are some issues with vision and seeing the holes. But something else has to be going on. His 6 carries Sunday went for 2, 1, -3, 0, 6, & 2. He has talent. Is it the wide zone? No clue what it is, but I hope he can get it turned around. He has made some plays in the return game, so he has value there. But he could be a trade deadline candidate.
Austin Jackson… I’m gonna let Coach Eric Smith handle this one.
Michael Taaffe may be a diamond in the rough. His draft profile highlights his instincts and intelligence as positive traits. He showed those off Sunday with the fantastic pick of Smith, where he recognizes the situation and breaks on the ball. He has 2 INTs on the season, tied with 19 other players. I have a hunch he’ll finish with a few more.
Kyle Louis and Julius Wood are key ST contributors. Louis was always around the returner and Wood is a hard-hitting tackler. I don’t know how much they’ll contribute on defense moving forward, but they will be ST aces and help settle that unit.
The Dolphins had not led a single second of a game this season. In Sunday’s contest, they never trailed.
I SAID WHAT I SAID
Is this post a little longer than usual? Yes. Because wins deserve more discussion. The Dolphins have a little time to enjoy this before turning their sites onto another divisional opponent. We fans have had some hope this season, but they never materialized into wins. This time, it did and while the actual team will be “On to New England”, we can bask in the radiance of a victory over the Jets.
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