We look ahead to Thursday’s EFL Cup fourth-round clash at Hill Dickinson Stadium with our Everton vs Newcastle prediction and preview. Can the Magpies reach their fifth straight quarter-final?
Everton vs Newcastle: The Key Insights
Everton have only progressed from one of their last seven EFL Cup fourth round ties under David Moyes, but are the Opta supercomputer’s favourites to advance here.
Since the 2022-23 season, Newcastle United have won 18 EFL Cup ties – six more than any other team.
The Magpies, who are eyeing a fifth straight quarter-final appearance, have also won each of their last seven fourth round ties in the competition.
Newcastle United bid to reach their fifth consecutive EFL Cup quarter-final when they face Everton at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
This is the first of two showdowns between the sides in less than a week, with the pair due to reconvene at St James’ Park in the Premier League on Monday.
The EFL Cup has provided Newcastle with some wonderful memories in recent seasons, as well as a welcome distraction from their domestic endeavours.
Eddie Howe led the Magpies to the 2022-23 final, where they were beaten 2-0 by Manchester United. However, they were not to be denied two years later, beating Liverpool 2-1 at Wembley in 2024-25 to finally end their 70-year major silverware drought.
Newcastle’s gallant defence of the trophy was ended by Manchester City in last season’s semi-finals, and they have started this campaign with a pair of narrow victories over Championship sides West Bromwich Albion (3-2) and Millwall (1-0).
Since the start of the 2022-23 season, the Magpies have won 18 ties in the EFL Cup, six more than any other team during that span. To put that into perspective, their 18 previous wins came over a period of 14 years between 2008-09 and 2021-22.
Newcastle have also won their last seven ties in the EFL Cup fourth round. They were last unsuccessful at this stage in the 2013-14 season, with Manuel Pellegrini’s Man City beating them 2-0 after extra-time at St James’ Park on their way to eventually lifting the trophy.
Matthias Jaissle’s side go into the tie fresh from a 2-0 victory over a struggling Crystal Palace on Sunday as they got back to winning ways after back-to-back defeats.
Newcastle vs Palace xG
Newcastle vs Palace xG
Jaissle is waiting on the fitness of Matias Fernandez-Pardo and Lewis Miley for this game, though will definitely be without Tino Livramento and Ewen Jaouen.
Everton, meanwhile, will hope Jack Grealish has recovered from a virus, and that Jarrad Branthwaite is available after concussion.
Both were absent on Saturday for what was Everton’s second 2-0 defeat in as many weekends, as they were beaten by reigning champions Arsenal.
David Moyes’ side previously saw their unbeaten start to the Premier League campaign ended by Pedro Neto’s brace against Chelsea, though they are yet to concede a goal in this season’s EFL Cup.
The Toffees opened with a 4-0 rout of Preston North End, including a Thierno Barry hat-trick, before edging out Wolves 1-0 in round three.
Yet Moyes has endured mixed fortunes in the fourth round of this competition. Everton have only progressed to the quarter-finals once in seven fourth round ties under his tutelage, doing so when they beat Luton Town in 2007-08.
Furthermore. his side have been eliminated from seven of his last 10 EFL Cup ties against Premier League opposition, though two of the three he progressed from were in round four. Both came during his time at West Ham, who he guided to victories over Man City (in 2021-22) and Arsenal (2023-24).
Everton vs Newcastle Head-to-Head
This will only be the second time the two sides have faced off in the EFL Cup.
Their only previous encounter – in round three of the 2002-03 competition – brought a six-goal thriller at St James’ Park, playing out an entertaining 3-3 draw after 120 minutes of play.
Moyes, in the first full season of his maiden spell in charge, saw his side twice come from behind to force a penalty shootout, where Richard Wright saved from Hugo Viana and Laurent Robert as the Toffees prevailed 3-2.
Yet Newcastle, who were 4-1 winners at the Hill Dickinson Stadium last November, could record successive away victories over Everton for the first time since a run of three straight successes between 1958 and 1960.
Everton vs Newcastle Prediction
Everton vs Newcastle EFL cup prediction
Everton vs Newcastle EFL cup prediction
The Opta supercomputer makes Everton the favourites to progress to the quarter-finals, winning inside 90 minutes in 44.1% of simulations.
Newcastle’s chances of victory in normal time are rated at 29.1%, with a draw after 90 minutes at 26.8%, which would send it to penalties.
However, the Magpies have won their last seven EFL Cup fourth-round ties, with their last such defeat coming courtesy of a 2-0 reverse against Man City back in October 2013.
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Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 16,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world, and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Premier League Opta Stats
Premier League Opta Stats