Chelsea will be going to Anfield without their main goalscorer, their best player and most of the positive momentum they had last week. Saturday was a pretty miserable game, so this cup tie comes as a palate cleanser for the Blues. The bad news is that Liverpool arrive on the back of four straight wins, but here are three key battles that could decide who makes it through.
Danny Welbeck v Liverpool’s Centre Backs
Joao Pedro is out for weeks with a thigh issue, so a 35-year-old who has scored three goals in two Carabao Cup games this season will lead the line. Of course, this is unless Emmanuel Emegha, finally fit after a hamstring problem, is handed a debut instead.
Welbeck has been Chelsea’s most efficient finisher per minute this season. He has five goals in 28 games against Liverpool, which is either comforting or slightly worrying. He was bafflingly left on the bench against Tottenham until the 88th minute in their last game. Meanwhile, the Reds conceded only one shot on target against Brighton on Sunday with Van Dijk and Co. So Welbeck will have his work cut out.
Romeo Lavia & Valentin Barco v Liverpool’s Pivot
With Moises Caicedo and Jordan Henderson getting a break, Lavia and Barco should make up the double pivot. Both sat on the subs bench on Saturday, but they have a real opportunity against a Liverpool side missing Dominik Szoboszlai, Conor Bradley, Jeremie Frimpong, Hugo Ekitike, and Giovanni Leoni.
Chelsea only had 32% possession and an expected goals of 0.46 against Spurs, so it wasn’t great from the midfield. But it shouldn’t have mattered. After all, Liverpool beat Brighton, despite only having 36% possession and losing the xG battle.
Estevao or Geovany Quenda v Liverpool’s makeshift right side.
Cole Palmer is suspended, so Estevao should finally get his first start since the third round against Leeds back in early September. Quenda is likely to be his partner in attack after a tough debut in the Premier League.
Liverpool’s problem is obvious. Jeremie Frimpong and Conor Bradley are both injured, so Araujo or Joe Gomez will be playing right back. Chelsea’s plan will be to run a teenage winger at a centre-back playing out of position. It’s worth noting that Araujo handled exactly that against Brighton and walked off as the best player on the pitch.
Florian Wirtz picked up an ankle knock against Brighton, but Iraola is optimistic he will feature. If Chelsea can’t take advantage, questions around Xabi Alonso will only get louder.