Every NFL season starts with a group of teams written off before a ball is snapped. When the NFL Super Bowl odds open each summer, those sides sit near the bottom of the list, and some of them still finish with the Lombardi Trophy. Seattle did it in the 2025 season. These are the five biggest pre-season outsiders to win the Super Bowl, and two teams from the 2026 market who have started well enough to follow them.
St. Louis Rams, 1999: 150/1
The Rams had gone 4-12 in 1998 and lost starting quarterback Trent Green to a knee injury in pre-season. His replacement, Kurt Warner, had gone undrafted in 1994. Warner threw for 4,353 yards and 41 touchdowns, won the league’s Most Valuable Player (MVP) award and led the ‘Greatest Show on Turf’ to a 13-3 record. The Rams beat Tennessee 23-16 in Super Bowl XXXIV, with Mike Jones tackling Kevin Dyson a yard short on the final play.
New England Patriots, 2001: 60/1
New England had gone 5-11 in 2000. In the second week of the 2001 season, Drew Bledsoe was injured and Tom Brady, a sixth-round pick, took over. The Patriots started 1-3 and finished 11-5, becoming the first team to win the Super Bowl after a 1-3 start. They beat the Rams 20-17 in Super Bowl XXXVI, with Adam Vinatieri kicking a 48-yard field goal as time expired.
Seattle Seahawks, 2025: 60/1
Seattle had missed the play-offs in 2023 and 2024, then rebuilt around Sam Darnold, a free agent whose breakout year in Minnesota had come in his seventh season. They went 14-3, took the top seed in the National Football Conference (NFC) and were play-off favourites. Seattle beat New England 29-13 in Super Bowl LX, with Kenneth Walker III named MVP after rushing for 135 yards.
San Francisco 49ers, 1981: 50/1
San Francisco had missed the play-offs for eight straight seasons and went 6-10 in 1980. They started 1981 at 1-2, then won 15 of their next 16 games with Joe Montana in his first full season as the starter. Dwight Clark’s famous catch beat Dallas in the NFC Championship Game, and the 49ers beat Cincinnati 26-21 in Super Bowl XVI for the franchise’s first title.
Philadelphia Eagles, 2017: 40/1
Philadelphia had gone 7-9 in 2016. Carson Wentz had them at 10-2 before he tore a knee ligament in Week 14, leaving backup Nick Foles in charge. The Eagles finished 13-3 anyway. Foles threw three touchdowns and caught another on the ‘Philly Special’ trick play as they beat New England 41-33 in Super Bowl LII, the club’s first championship since 1960.
Could the Minnesota Vikings be next?
Minnesota were 50/1 before the 2026 season and won their first four games. Kyler Murray suffered a concussion on the 11th play of the season, and Justin Jefferson sprained an ankle seven plays into Murray’s return.
The Vikings won two of those games without an offensive touchdown. Over Weeks two to four, their special teams scored 42 points to the offence’s seven. Brian Flores’s defence gave up a league-low 12.8 points per game. The 2001 Patriots and the 2017 Eagles both won it with a quarterback few expected to lift the trophy.
Could the Cleveland Browns be next?
Cleveland were 200/1 before the season, longer than the 1999 Rams. On 1 June 2026, they traded Myles Garrett to the Los Angeles Rams, months after he set the single-season sack record with 23 and won Defensive Player of the Year for the second time. The Browns took Jared Verse and three draft picks in return, which looked like the start of a rebuild.
They lost their opener and then won three in a row. The third was a 27-24 win over Pittsburgh on 1 October, when Deshaun Watson led a late drive and Andre Szmyt kicked a career-long 56-yard field goal with 10 seconds left. That left Cleveland 3-1 for the first time since 2021, level with Baltimore at the top of the American Football Conference (AFC) North. A Cleveland title would make them the biggest outsider in the history of Super Bowl betting to win the trophy.