Newcastle United vs Everton at St. James’ Park on Monday will be a second meeting in four days between two teams eager to secure three points and return to the top half of the Premier League table.
Everton’s 3-1 win over Newcastle United in the EFL Cup tie at Hill Dickinson Stadium earlier this week has turned Monday’s meeting into a test of response rather than a simple rematch. Newcastle had 28 shots, nine on target and most of the territorial initiative. Yet, the Toffees scored through James Garner, Hayden Hackney, and Thierno Barry before Dan Burn’s late consolation.
The Premier League meeting at St. James’ Park therefore asks whether Newcastle can make pressure count, or whether Everton can repeat the more efficient version of the contest. The result matters to both clubs without becoming decisive this early in the campaign.
The hosts are 12th with 11 points, and victory would keep the European places within reach while defeat would deepen the pressure around Matthias Jaissle. Everton, on the other hand, are 14th on 10 points; a win would strengthen their upward ambitions, but another league defeat would leave their safety and broader targets less comfortable. Neither side has the luxury of treating the game as a cup afterthought.
Newcastle’s last Premier League match ended in a 2-0 win over Crystal Palace. So, the immediate value of this fixture is confirmation. They need to carry that result into a response after the cup setback. Their recent three-match attacking output has been respectable, but the team has also conceded more than Jaissle would want across that same run.
The Magpies should therefore try to impose itself without allowing the desire to repair Thursday’s damage to turn the game into an uncontrolled chase. Meanwhile, Everton arrive with the emotional lift of securing a quarter-final place in the EFL Cup and a settled managerial hand under David Moyes. However, their league form has slipped to two successive 2-0 defeats.
The Toffees have scored only two goals across their last five league matches, which makes another efficient counterpunch especially valuable. Moyes’s side can accept a draw more readily than Newcastle can, and their recent use of the same basic shape should help them keep the match contained rather than allow the cup result to dictate the evening.
Team News: The choices behind two familiar shapes
Newcastle United’s absent players affect both depth and balance. Ewen Jaouen is unavailable due to a thigh issue, Valentino Livramento is out with a knee injury, while William Osula is doubtful after twisting an ankle earlier this week. Meanwhile, Matias Fernandez-Pardo (illness) and Lewis Miley (knock) face late fitness tests to determine their availability.
Lukas Hornicek is an automatic pick in goal behind Amar Dedic, Malick Thiaw, Sven Botman, and Lewis Hall. Hall has been in impressive form, supplying 10 key passes, a significant contribution for a left-back. His role is particularly important because he must support the left side without leaving the backline exposed.
As for the midfield unit, Joelinton and Nico Gonzalez are expected to form the double pivot, with Jacob Murphy, Joe Willock, and Harvey Barnes behind Yoane Wissa completing the offensive unit. Willock’s 4 key passes and two goals in eight appearances underline why Newcastle need him connecting the midfield to the striker rather than drifting out of the game.
Barnes has added two goals and two assists from eight starts, while Wissa has contributed one goal and one assist in seven starts. The 4-2-3-1 formation is Newcastle’s clear recent habit, and it should retain two midfielders behind the attacking three rather than sacrifice cover for an extra forward.
Probable Newcastle United Starting Lineup (4-2-3-1): Hornicek; Dedic, Thiaw, Botman, Hall; Gonzalez, Joelinton; Murphy, Willock, Barnes; Wissa
Newcastle United vs Everton Lineups
Newcastle United vs Everton Lineups
Probable Everton Starting Lineup (4-2-3-1): Pickford; Maitland-Niles, Tarkowski, Branthwaite, Mykolenko; Armstrong, Garner; Johnson, Dewsbury-Hall, George; Barry
Everton have their own selection issue on the left-hand side. Jack Grealish is suspended after a disciplinary breach, while Jarrad Branthwaite remains doubtful due to concussion protocol, though he is expected to be available for Monday. If Branthwaite is cleared, he should start beside James Tarkowski; otherwise that position becomes the main late change to an otherwise settled side.
Everton’s defensive plan depends on keeping the two centre-backs and double pivot connected when Newcastle attack through the middle. Jordan Pickford is expected to continue behind Ainsley Maitland-Niles, Tarkowski, Branthwaite, and Vitaliy Mykolenko.
As for the midfield unit, James Garner and Harrison Armstrong should form the double pivot, with Brennan Johnson, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, and Tyrique George supporting Thierno Barry. Dewsbury-Hall has 18 key passes and six big chances created, so his advanced position is not decorative.
Everton need the English playmaker to connect their first pass forward to Barry and the wide players. Barry has scored three times and registered 12 shots on target from 27 attempts, making him the clearest reference point when the visitors decide to go early.
Tactics: The central link and the space behind Newcastle
Both teams should use a 4-2-3-1 formation, but they will ask different questions of it. Newcastle United’s double pivot is designed to support an assertive home approach while keeping enough protection behind Joe Willock, Harvey Barnes, and Jacob Murphy. Everton’s version keeps the same two central midfield roles but gives Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall freedom to operate between the lines without requiring a second striker.
That continuity matters because the visitors want to compete for the result while still being able to protect a draw. The comparison points to a close contest for the ball rather than one automatically controlling it. Newcastle have had 49% possession on average against a league typical 49.5%, while Everton have had 43.5% against that same figure.
The Magpies are near the league norm, whereas Everton are more comfortable conceding possession. The home side’s 15 crosses per match sit just below the league’s 16 average, while Everton’s 18 are above it, giving the visitors the clearer habit of moving attacks wide and delivering into the area. Both sides use long balls at almost the league’s normal rate, with Newcastle at 50 per match and Everton at 49.5 against a typical 49.75.
That creates a tension for Newcastle. Their shape says they should carry the game to Everton, but their possession habit does not guarantee sustained control. If the home side circulate without turning territory into clean chances, David Moyes’s team can remain compact, wait for the right forward pass and send service towards Thierno Barry or the wide attackers.
Newcastle’s recent defensive record makes that route credible. Their recent three-match run has produced 1.76 xGA per game against 1.56 xG. Everton’s corresponding attacking figure is only 0.95, but their ability to stay in the match means Newcastle cannot assume that territorial pressure will become a comfortable lead. The most important contest is Joe Willock against Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall.
Newcastle United vs Everton Key Battle
Newcastle United vs Everton Key Battle
Willock, whose future remains uncertain, has to connect Newcastle’s attack with Yoane Wissa while preventing Dewsbury-Hall from turning and linking Everton’s midfield to Barry. Both are steady presences rather than players likely to abandon the structure in search of a personal duel. So, the issue is which side keeps its central platform intact.
If Willock controls that link, Newcastle can continue pressing the game without making it an open exchange, and Everton will be pushed towards the more conservative version of their plan. If Dewsbury-Hall gets free, the hosts lose central control and Everton can protect the draw while still threatening forward.
Behind that duel, Newcastle’s double pivot has to deal with the space left by the attacking midfielders. Behind Dewsbury-Hall, James Garner and Harrison Armstrong can preserve the visitors’ cover; behind Willock, Nico Gonzalez and Joelinton must stop the former Chelsea midfielder from receiving on the turn.
The secondary battle is on Newcastle’s right, where Amar Dedic has to protect the channel against Tyrique George while still offering an outlet. If the Newcastle full-back holds it, the hosts can keep their attacking balance. If George wins that lane, Everton can make the Tyneside outfit’s shape retreat and manage the game from a safer position.
Prediction: The draw remains the safe option
We predict a draw, held with medium confidence rather than certainty. Newcastle United have the stronger reason to push at home, but Everton’s ability to absorb pressure and attack the space behind that push makes a home win difficult to trust. The recent attacking figures do not create a decisive separation.
Newcastle have averaged 1.56 xG per match across their latest three-game run in the Premier League, while Everton have averaged 0.95. That advantage belongs to the hosts, but it is narrowed by their defensive number and by Everton’s ability to make the match uncomfortable. The Magpies have also averaged 1.76 xGA in that period, compared with the away side’s 1.61.
Lean: Draw
Range: 1-1/1-0/0-1
The numbers describe a game in which Matthias Jaissle’s team may create more. Yet, neither defence has offered the reliability needed to make a narrow lead feel secure. The strongest case against the draw is Newcastle’s ability to turn their response into sustained pressure early.
If Joe Willock receives between Everton’s midfield and defence, Harvey Barnes and Jacob Murphy can pin the full-backs back, and Yoane Wissa may receive the chances Newcastle failed to finish in the cup. That would force the Toffees to defend deeper than intended and could turn the visitors’ controlled plan into survival. The scoreline band is 1-1, 1-0 or 0-1.
The final selection could change Everton’s resistance
The late decision over the left-sided centre-back remains the selection call with the clearest power to alter the match. If Everton retain their expected defensive pairing, their two central lines should stay compact enough to make Newcastle United work through the middle.
A change there would ask the visitors to defend the same pressure with less established continuity, increasing the importance of how quickly the home side move the ball into the spaces around the attacking midfielder.