Liverpool boss Andoni Iraola faces a challenge in the Champions League after a setback against Fenerbahce, with the side losing it's perfect start to the competition
Head coach Andoni Iraola of Liverpool FC looks on during the UEFA Champions League 2026/27 League Phase MD4 match between Fenerbahce SK and Liverpool FC
Andoni Iraola faces a Champions League challenge at Liverpool(Image: (Photo by Ferda Demir/Getty Images))
It was all going so well for Liverpool in the Champions League. Three wins from three was an ideal start for Andoni Iraola, with wins over Atletico Madrid, Villarreal, and LASK giving a good foundation in the competition for success during the league phase.
However, a defeat to Fenerbahce has slightly changed the complexion of the challenge at hand. The Reds led twice in Turkiye on the night, but conceded three goals to ensure a first defeat of the European campaign, with the defensive work of the side coming under particular scrutiny.
It means that, at the halfway stage of the league phase, Liverpool sits eighth in the table, just on the edge of the group of teams that would automatically qualify for the round of 16. There is work for Andoni Iraola to do as a result, with four games remaining to seal a place in the top eight, with some interesting fixtures still to come in the next few weeks.
Clashes with Club Brugge, FC Porto, Inter Milan, and RC Lens await, with all four teams more than capable of causing some trouble, with no particularly easy clash among them to guarantee another three points on the board.
For Liverpool, a top-eight finish is imperative, not only because of the club's own standing and stature, but because of the tangible benefit from doing so. Entry straight to the round of 16 means the Reds would avoid playing two extra games in a play-off round before that stage, something that would create a nightmare scenario for Iraola, considering how razor thin his squad depth is and the challenges that extra matches could bring.
The chances of a top-eight finish have dropped, as a result of the defeat in Istanbul on Wednesday, though the odds are still in the Merseyside outfit's favor.
ISTANBUL, TURKEY - NOVEMBER 4: Head coach Andoni Iraola of Liverpool FC during the UEFA Champions League 2026/27 League Phase MD4 match between Fenerbahce SK and Liverpool FC at Ulker Sukru Saracoglu Stadium on November 4, 2026 in Istanbul, Turkey. (Photo by BSR Agency/Getty Images)
Andoni Iraola's applauds the Liverpool travelling supporters after they saw their side twice throw away a lead in losing 3-2 to Fenerbahce in Istanbul (Image: BSR Agency/Getty Images)
Opta Analyst gives the Reds a 58.37 per cent chance of finishing in the top-eight, which is only marginally better than a coin flip to decide if the team goes through or not.
The likes of Manchester City, Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Arsenal, Real Madrid, and PSG have all been given a better chance to go through, while Aston Villa, Club Brugge, and Como appear to be the closest competitors to Liverpool.
A projected points tally has Liverpool at 15.86, which would round up to 16 points in total. That has been just about enough to get teams qualified in the top eight in each of the previous two league phases of the tournament, which is still in its relative infancy as a format.
That means Iraola would need to pick up seven points from the final four fixtures, with two wins, one draw, and one defeat viewed as enough to help squeeze them through.
It gives a little margin for error, but it's clear that the Reds cannot get too complacent in the competition. It leaves the manager with a dilemma about how he rotates his team moving forward, with the balance of fresh legs up against quality and a need to earn results.
The alternative is Liverpool missing out on the top eight, which hands another two games to Iraola, something he simply cannot afford this season.