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We’ve reached the point in the fantasy football season where it’s time to do a pulse check.
Nearly half of the teams in the league have had their bye week. There’s a solid grasp on which players are weekly starts and whom we might have to permanently park on the bench, if not drop. We know when we might be getting our stars back. We also know that some of them might miss the rest of the season (commiserations, Lamar Jackson managers).
So, what’s the pulse of your team? Are you staring down the consolation bracket and considering trading off your top draft pick? Are you atop the standings and meticulously monitoring every move your leaguemates make? Are you oscillating in and out of the playoff picture and still can’t decide which Jets receiver to start this week?
No matter what your hypothetical fantasy BPM is, the Sleepers column is here to help. There’s no tanking in this game we play, which means we have to do whatever it takes to get another win. Here’s to hoping these hidden gems get you there.
NOTE: All statistics come courtesy of Next Gen Stats, unless otherwise noted.
QUARTERBACKS
Willis has been far from the best quarterback in real life and in fantasy, but his play in recent weeks commands some respect. His 19.9 points per game since Week 5 are top-10 at the position and a higher average than that of guys like Jared Goff, Caleb Williams and Brock Purdy in that span. And the Dolphins have played solid ball, notching their first win and giving teams like the Bengals and Patriots good fights.
I’m expecting more of the same against a Lions team allowing the most points per game to quarterbacks (24.8). Every signal-caller to face Detroit has thrown for at least 200 yards and two touchdowns, which Willis has done in each of his last two outings. But perhaps more notably, the two running threats to have faced the Lions -- Josh Allen and Kyler Murray -- each ran for at least 35 yards, something Willis has done in four of his seven games. Whether by air or by ground, I think there’s a plenty productive day waiting near South Beach for Willis.
I didn’t expect to be writing about McCarthy this season, but that’s the beauty of the NFL. Since being inserted as the Giants’ QB in the fourth quarter three weeks ago, J.J. has been slinging it; his 495 passing yards in about five quarters from Weeks 6-7 was the eighth-most in football. Letting it rip has always been a part of his game, and that’s still the case in New York. His 11.9 air yards per attempt and 44.9% downfield (10+ air yards) throw rate each lead all QBs with at least 40 attempts this year.
And he might have to keep that up with Cam Skattebo’s status in question as he deals with a hamstring issue. That projects for a field day against the Eagles, who have allowed a league-high 1,082 passing yards on downfield throws this season. This Philly defense feels unrecognizable, and with their season spiraling out of control, McCarthy should take full advantage.
RUNNING BACKS
For those of you who have been reading the Sleepers column all season long, you know I base a lot of these picks on trends and matchups more than anything else. That’s not necessarily the case here. Have the Raiders allowed the ninth-most points per game to running backs this year? Yes, but that’s not why I’m going back to Black this week.
This is mostly about Christian McCaffrey and the ramifications of the lower-body issues he’s been dealing with since the last time we saw him in Atlanta. He finished that game with seven carries to Black’s 12 -- Kaelon ran for 63 yards and his first career touchdown, to boot -- and I get the sense that this isn’t the type of game where the 49ers will need to deploy McCaffrey much in order to win. Regardless of whether or not CMC plays, I feel like San Francisco will be able to cruise on offense, which could open the door for Black to get as many touches as he’s seen all season. Call it my ultimate vibes play of the season.
Gainwell reached 4.5 receiving points in each of his last eight games of 2025, but has done so only once this season, which was over a month ago. But that’s not Kenny’s fault -- his team clearly doesn’t need to throw to win football games!
If anything, that’s worked in his favor. After carrying the ball 19 times for 61 yards in his first six games, he has a whopping 228 rushing yards -- sixth-most in the league since Week 7 -- on 29 totes in the last two weeks, including a career-high 140 last Sunday. The Bears have been stingy against backs this year, allowing just 17.8 fantasy points per game (third-fewest). But they’ve only played one team that’s top-10 in RB rush yards per game: Atlanta, who got behind by so much so fast that they had to abandon the run. Tampa’s defense will keep the score close, which means plenty of carries are on the way for Gainwell, who might just notch his first rushing score of the year.
Loading...Gregg Rosenthal, Jourdan Rodrigue and Nick Shook preview the Week 9 Sunday Night Football game between the Buccaneers and Bears and look ahead at possible trade deadline moves for both teams.
WIDE RECEIVERS
You guys want to know the wide receivers with 11 or more points in each of the last four weeks? Jaxon Smith-Njigba; makes sense, he’s on pace for the best fantasy season from a WR ever. Puka Nacua; yup, checks out considering his insane usage. Ryan Flournoy; wait, what?!
Don’t get me wrong, a lot of top receivers have had byes in that span, but that’s taking nothing away from Flournoy, who is the PPR WR16 since Week 5. He’s one of just 17 receivers with at least four targets in every game this season, meaning he has a high enough floor in Dallas’ pass-happy offense. The Colts have allowed the sixth-fewest points per game to wide receivers, but they haven’t faced a group like the Cowboys yet. Flournoy will get his looks -- if he can reach the end zone for the third time in four games, even better!
Dotson has been a deep threat that has seemingly flown under the radar, but that might be because Atlanta isn’t throwing deep too often. When they do, it’s going No. 4’s way: his 69.2% deep target share leads the NFL, as he has nine targets of 20 or more air yards while the rest of the Falcons have four combined.
As a result, Dotson’s 184 yards on those deep shots ranks sixth in the league. So, what am I trying to say here? He’s going to get his looks down the field, it’s really just a matter of coming down with them. That’s what will make a successful fantasy day. The Bengals have been stout against the deep shot with league-lows in yards (117), yards per attempt (5.1), completion percentage (17.4%) and success rate (17.4). But ... all we need is one.
TIGHT ENDS
I’d love to believe Gesicki has graduated from Sleeper status, but he’s still rostered in less than a quarter of ESPN leagues. Guys, there’s only one player with more receiving touchdowns than Gesicki’s six, and I think you know what three-letter acronym he goes by. His 11.0 points per game are good for 12th among tight ends, and he has scored a TD in five straight games, the longest streak in the league and one game off the NFL record for tight ends.
Maybe he’s not going to be the TE1 in any given week (he hasn’t reached 20 points in a game this year) but his floor and scoring volume are impossible to ignore. The Bengals call passes at the highest rate in the NFL (66.7%), and while most of the targets go to Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Chase Brown, Gesicki makes the most of his chances. He should be a weekly starter in every league.
Two Dolphins in one column? Are pigs flying?! No, Miami is just playing the Lions is all. We’ve done this song and dance all season, and it has rarely let us down. Detroit is allowing an unfathomable 27.9 points per game to tight ends this year, buttressed by 11 total touchdowns allowed to the position. Of the 13 tight ends who have caught multiple passes against them, 10 (!!!) have reached the end zone.
So, yes, I smell a breakout game coming for Dulcich, who has been solid of late. His 10.5 points per game since Week 5 are good for 13th at the position, and he has at least five targets, four catches and 35 yards in each of the last three games. That’s tied with Travis Kelce and Colston Loveland for the fourth-longest active streak among TEs. But most importantly, his 26.7% red-zone target share leads the Dolphins, so there’s absolutely a path to him scoring his first touchdown since Week 17 of last season against a defense that’s handing them out like fliers.
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DEFENSES
I already had the Saints on my shortlist for defenses to list here, but the decision to include them was made easier by the news that the Browns might be starting Shedeur Sanders at QB with Deshaun Watson in the concussion protocol. If Sanders starts, he will be behind a better offensive line than he was last season, but no QB with at least 200 dropbacks in the last two seasons has faced a higher pressure rate (52.5%) or logged a longer time to throw (3.24 seconds) than Sanders. Oh, and his 9.0% sack rate in that span is also the sixth-highest.
This is a Cleveland team that was already allowing 9.1 points per game to opposing D/STs, the third-most in the league. Now they go on the road with questions at QB to face a Saints D/ST that has racked up 23.0 fantasy points, 10 sacks and six takeaways in its last three games? Sign me up.
Listing defenses that are going up against backup quarterbacks might be the ultimate plucking of low-hanging fruit, but we have to win fantasy games somehow! Philly’s decision to start Joe Milton III over Tanner McKee isn’t really moving the needle for me.
That is unless Milton can magically heal the offensive line and passing game. Philadelphia is allowing the fourth-highest pressure rate (42.6%) in the league; against the blitz, that number skyrockets to 60.6%, the highest in football. The Giants, who blitz at the third-highest rate in the NFL (42.0%), must be licking their chops. After all, against QBs they’ve faced who aren’t in the top-16 in PPG (Jacoby Brissett and Cam Ward), the Giants totaled 25.0 points. The Birds, meanwhile, just gave up 14.0 to the Commanders D/ST, who hadn’t cleared eight points all year long.