New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye, left, talks with Mike Vrabel during the fourth quarter of a game against the New York Jets at Gillette Stadium. (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)
New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye, left, talks with Mike Vrabel during the fourth quarter of a game against the New York Jets at Gillette Stadium. (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)
This week, the Patriots described Sunday’s matchup with the Packers as a kind of measuring-stick game.
One 5-3 team led by an elite quarterback facing another. Two offensive lines decimated by injuries pitted against healthy, strong defenses. In different ways, the Pats and Packers have been able to work around their problems to land in the same place at midseason.
But after Sunday, one team will be considered a rising contender at 6-3, and the other a banged-up mess sitting just one game above .500.
Which will it be for the Patriots?
Here’s what to watch for in Foxboro:
When the Patriots run
Rhamondre Stevenson, you’re up. Again.
TreVeyon Henderson remains absent due to what he called “an unexpected and unusual medical emergency involving a series of unexplained neurological symptoms” in a statement Friday. That leaves Stevenson, Corey Kiner and practice-squad alum Lan Larison at running back.
The good news is the Packers’ defensive front is movable between the tackles, where the Patriots have run more than most teams this season. Specifically, Green Bay is allowing opponents a 46.7% offensive success rate on inside runs, according to SumerSports. Look for offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to hammer the Packers on the interior, especially after Stevenson rushed for a season-high 82 yards last week and broke seven tackles.
New England Patriots' Rhamondre Stevenson runs against the Las Vegas Raiders during an NFL football game at Gillette Stadium, Sunday, Sept. 7, 2025 in Foxborough, Mass. (Winslow Townson/AP Images for Panini)
New England Patriots' Rhamondre Stevenson runs against the Las Vegas Raiders during an NFL game at Gillette Stadium, Sunday, Sept. 7, 2025 in Foxboro. (Winslow Townson/AP Images for Panini)
When the Patriots pass
Few defenses are better at defending the middle of the field or the deep ball than Green Bay’s. But arguably no defense is better at doing both at the same time.
Packers safeties Xavier McKinney and Evan Williams will be a true test for Drake Maye, who has played consistently disciplined football the last few weeks when opponents have mostly denied him opportunities to scramble and throw the deep ball. That means it’s a good time for Maye to welcome back Mack Hollins, perhaps the only sideline receiver he can reliably trust this week. Maye is otherwise left throwing to DeMario Douglas, Kyle Williams and Efton Chism, plus a banged-up Hunter Henry (questionable, foot), if Henry is cleared in time for kickoff.
The Patriots could face a high blitz rate from Green Bay, which has fielded a top-5 pass defense overall thanks mostly to an above-average pressure rate. If, however, the Packers do not send extra rushers at Maye (who kills the blitz), the key matchups will be left tackle Will Campbell versus Packers edge rusher Lukas Van Ness and right tackle Morgan Moses against young pass rushers Barryn Sorrell and Dani Dennis-Sutton, who have a combined 31 pressures this season.
When the Packers run
Two weeks ago, Green Bay welcomed back former Pro Bowl running back Josh Jacobs. It hasn’t mattered much.
Jacobs has yet to rush for even 40 yards in a game this season, and his longest run has covered just 10 yards. Most of those struggles can be traced to an injured Packers offensive line that ranks dead last by Pro Football Focus’ run-blocking grades. Green Bay will, however, call hand-offs often enough so the Patriots must respect their deep play-action pass game.
Up front, the Pats need defensive tackles Milton Williams, Christian Barmore and Cory Durden to win at the line of scrimmage, if not crash the backfield. Last week, Durden enjoyed a breakout game that included two run-stuffs. Williams also tallied a run-stuff, and inside linebacker Christian Elliss has been a swarming force sideline to sideline now for weeks.
When the Packers pass
Bombs away.
That, more than anything, sums up Green Bay’s approach offensively, with cannon-armed Jordan Love at quarterback and deep threats Christian Watson and Matthew Golden at receiver. While Love often also targets his bruising, athletic tight end Tucker Kraft, the Patriots’ pass defense will start and end out wide. There, cornerbacks Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis will face two of their toughest matchups of the year.
Love leads the NFL in passes attempted 20 yards or more down the field, and the 6-foot-4 Watson is among the most dangerous deep targets in the league. Golden is another speedy threat, though he’s smaller and runs a more well-rounded route tree. Love is also capable of extending plays, whether scrambling or evading rushers to attempt off-platform throws from any number of angles.
One under-the-radar battle: how often the Patriots can fool Love, a Pro Bowl talent, who has matured since entering the league in 2020 and now has full control of the offense at the line of scrimmage. If Love knows when and where to expect blitz, it could be a long day for the Pats.
“I think you see that (control) a lot of times in protection,” Patriots coach Mike Vrabel said this week. “On third down you’ll see him — starting the season with Minnesota is probably not something that’s very fun. Whether he’s sight-adjusting and the ball’s coming out quick, or he’s changing the protection and making a call, communicating, I think I’ve seen that growth over the last couple years.”
Prediction
Packers 23, Patriots 20