NFL: New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
NFL: New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
Expert analysts across three major networks are picking the underdog Packers to knock of the Patriots in Gillette Stadium by a 17-6 margin.
The New England Patriots are slight favorites heading into Sunday’s showdown with the Green Bay Packers at Gillette Stadium, but apparently not everyone is buying into New England’s resurgence.
Despite identical 5-3 records and both teams winning four of their last five games, a significant majority of experts at ESPN and NFL.com are picking Green Bay to leave Foxborough with a victory.
Across three major national prediction panels — ESPN, CBS Sports and NFL.com — 17 of 23 analysts are backing the Packers.
The disconnect between the betting market and the national media is one of the more interesting storylines surrounding Sunday’s 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff.
The Patriots are three-point favorites, according to the odds listed by NFL.com, yet some of the most recognizable NFL analysts believe Jordan Love and the Packers will prevail over Drake Maye and New England.
Here’s a closer look at who’s picking whom, and why.
ESPN Experts Overwhelmingly Favor Green Bay
ESPN’s 11-member prediction panel has delivered one of the strongest votes of confidence for the Packers. Nine analysts picked Green Bay, with only Mike Clay and Dan Graziano choosing New England.
Among those backing the Packers are Matt Bowen, Jeremy Fowler, Ben Solak, Eric Moody, Jason Reid, Kalyn Kahler, Pamela Maldonado, Lindsey Thiry and Seth Wickersham.
However, ESPN Patriots reporter Mike Reiss sees things differently. Reiss predicts a 27-24 Patriots victory, pointing to the importance of New England’s secondary against Green Bay’s passing attack.
“CB Christian Gonzalez will need to bring his ‘A’ game,” Reiss wrote in his prediction, as published in the Patriots’ expert picks roundup.
That matchup could be decisive against Love, who has been one of the league’s most dangerous deep-ball passers this season.
NFL.com Analysts Pick Packers 4-1, but One Expert Sees a Major Weakness
Four of NFL.com’s five analysts predict a Green Bay victory, although all five expect a competitive game.
Jeremy Bergman picks the Packers 20-17, Gennaro Filice predicts a 27-23 Green Bay victory, Bobby Kownack has the Packers winning 24-23, and Dan Parr forecasts a 26-24 result.
Brooke Cersosimo is the lone NFL.com analyst backing New England, predicting a 24-20 Patriots victory. Her reasoning centers on Green Bay’s inability to establish a consistent running game.
The Packers enter Sunday averaging an NFL-worst 60.6 rushing yards per game, while New England has allowed just 92.6 rushing yards per contest.
Cersosimo believes that imbalance will eventually catch up with Green Bay.
“It’s a weakness the Packers have been able to overcome in past weeks, but it’ll catch up to them this time,” she wrote in NFL.com’s Week 9 predictions.
Her analysis provides one of the strongest arguments for a New England victory: If the Patriots can make Green Bay one-dimensional, they could force Love into difficult passing situations.
CBS Sports Experts Are More Divided
The seven-member CBS Sports panel is nearly evenly split, with four analysts backing Green Bay and three predicting a Patriots victory.
Pete Prisco, Jared Dubin, John Breech and Tyler Sullivan picked the Packers.
Ryan Wilson, Dave Richard and Jamey Eisenberg chose New England.
Prisco anticipates a defensive struggle and predicts Green Bay will escape with a 19-16 victory.
“This has the feel of a low-scoring game with two good defenses,” Prisco wrote.
He believes Green Bay’s additional rest after playing the previous Thursday will prove beneficial, with Love making the difference in the closing minutes.
Prisco’s prediction is particularly interesting because it contrasts with the expectations of those who believe Maye and Love could produce an offensive showcase.
Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio Makes a Bold Patriots Prediction
While much of the national media is leaning toward Green Bay, Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio is decidedly more optimistic about New England.
Florio predicts a 31-21 Patriots victory, one of the more decisive New England wins forecast by a prominent national analyst. That prediction stands in sharp contrast to the narrow margins projected by most of the NFL.com and CBS Sports panels.
If Florio is correct, the Patriots would not only defeat another playoff contender but do so by double digits.
Patriots Insiders Expect a Close Victory
The Patriots’ own media analysts are unanimous in picking New England, although each expects a tight contest.
Paul Perillo predicts a 24-23 Patriots victory, believing Green Bay’s struggles in the kicking game could become a factor.
Mike Dussault forecasts a 28-27 New England win, with the battle between the defensive fronts and opposing offensive lines playing a central role.
Evan Lazar expects the Patriots to win 23-20 on a late field goal by Andy Borregales.
“I think we’re in for a classic at Gillette Stadium on Sunday that’s a true coin-flip game,” Lazar wrote.
He also acknowledged the difficulty of separating two teams that have followed remarkably similar paths through the first eight games.
The predictions reflect both confidence in the Patriots’ progress and an understanding that Green Bay represents a significant challenge.
The Athletic and Sports Illustrated Panels Are Split
Other national outlets are far less convinced that Green Bay is the obvious choice.
At The Athletic, four of seven analysts picked the Packers, while three favored the Patriots.
Sports Illustrated’s MMQB panel went the other direction, with five of eight experts selecting New England.
Among the MMQB analysts picking the Patriots were Mike Kadlick, Gilberto Manzano, Matt Verderame, Eva Geitheim and John Pluym.
That split reinforces the notion that Sunday’s matchup is far closer than ESPN’s lopsided prediction panel might suggest.
What the Expert Predictions Really Tell Us
The most revealing aspect of the national predictions isn’t simply that more analysts favor Green Bay. It’s that most expect the game to be decided by a handful of points.
All five NFL.com predictions have margins of four points or fewer. Prisco sees a three-point Packers victory. Reiss predicts a three-point Patriots win. The experts generally agree on one thing: These are two closely matched teams with talented young quarterbacks and defenses capable of influencing the outcome.
But they disagree about which team is better equipped to overcome its weaknesses.
Green Bay has struggled to run the football, putting additional pressure on Love. New England must find ways to protect Maye and generate offense without several key playmakers.
There is also the matter of home-field advantage, which could prove important in a game expected to remain competitive into the fourth quarter.
The Patriots have an opportunity to prove the national skeptics wrong Sunday afternoon.
And if New England defeats Green Bay, it will have done so against a team that many of the country’s most prominent NFL analysts expected to win.
Need One Prediction to Hang Your Hat On?
You can call us homers if you want, but we’ve done our homework and Patriots Football Now is calling it for New England, 24-21.