Sunderland v Chelsea FC - Premier League 2026/27
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Levi Colwill of Chelsea
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Chelsea FC Training and Press Conference
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Xabi Alonso manager / head coach of Chelsea celebrates with Moises Caicedo and Levi Colwill
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Granit Xhaka and Xabi Alonso
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Brian Brobbey of Sunderland has a chance while under pressure from Wesley Fofana of Chelsea during the Premier League match between Sunderland and Chelsea at the Stadium of Light
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Chelsea fans are getting carried away ahead of Sunderland clash as underlying numbers raise alarm
FBL-EUR-C3-SUNDERLAND-DINAMO
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Defeats to Frank Lampard’s Coventry City and Dinamo Zagreb have only added to the Black Cats’ problems. Regis Le Bris’ side lost 3-1 at home to Coventry last weekend before suffering a 2-0 Europa League defeat on Thursday, meaning fatigue could also be a factor against Chelsea.
It’s a Chelsea win to the international break. Chelsea 2 v Sunderland 0
It is little surprise that Blues supporters are confident. More than 250 fans voted on our TalkingPoints poll, with 93% predicting a Chelsea win, while just 4% backed a draw and 3% expected Sunderland to take all three points. However, some supporters have warned against underestimating the Black Cats, particularly after Chelsea’s shocking defeat to Tottenham.
I have seen what teams at the bottom relegation zone have surprisingly done to Chelsea in the past. I hope not this time again.
According to FotMob, Sunderland have recorded 13.2 expected goals (xG) in the Premier League despite scoring just five, while their expected goals against (xGA) stands at 15.7 compared to the 17 they have conceded. Their expected points tally is 12, seven more than the five they have actually collected.
The expected points table therefore places Sunderland 11th, rather than 20th. Meanwhile, Chelsea have scored 19 goals from just 13.3 xG, suggesting they have been particularly clinical. Their underlying numbers put them ninth in the table, two places and one point above Sunderland.
The Black Cats also beat Chelsea 2-1 home and away last season, while defender Trai Hume has already described Sunday’s fixture as their “biggest game of the season”. Chelsea should be favourites, but the statistics suggest they would be foolish to take this trip to the Stadium of Light lightly.
Xabi Alonso, Manager of Chelsea
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